Elon Musk tweet "Based on current trends probably close to zero cases in the United States by the end of April too" and
https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-nobel-laureate-Coronavirus-spread-is-slowing-621145
"Levitt likened the trend to diminishing interest rates: if a person receives a 30% interest rate on their savings on Day 1, a 29% rate on Day 2, and so on, “you understand that eventually, you will not earn very much.” "
Note: It is easier to predict trends in a subnational cluster than across a large country like the USA.
| | 7500 |
people die every day in the US.
| | |
COVID 19 curve forecast (deaths)
| | | | | |
Date | Deaths per day forecast | Extra deaths per day | Total | Growth | |
3/19/2020 | 7552 | 52 | 175 | 42% | Measured |
3/20/2020 | 7555 | 55 | 230 | 31% | Measured |
3/21/2020 | 7568 | 68 | 298 | 30% | Measured |
3/22/2020 | 7610 | 110 | 408 | 37% | Measured |
3/23/2020 | 7611 | 111 | 519 | 27% | Measured |
3/24/2020 | 7662 | 162 | 681 | 31% | Measured |
3/25/2020 | 7725 | 225 | 906 | 33% | Measured |
3/26/2020 | 7753 | 253 | 1159 | 28% | Measured |
3/27/2020 | 7933 | 433 | 1592 | 37% | Measured |
3/28/2020 | 7947 | 447 | 2039 | 28% | Measured |
3/29/2020 | 7913 | 413 | 2452 | 20% | Measured |
3/30/2020 | 8016 | 516 | 2968 | 21% | Measured |
3/31/2020 | 8125 | 625 | 3593 | 27% | Measured |
4/1/2020 | 8470 | 970 | 4563 | 26% | Measured |
4/2/2020 | 8686 | 1186 | 5749 | 25% | Measured |
4/3/2020 | 8937 | 1437 | 7186 | 24% | Measured |
4/4/2020 | 9225 | 1725 | 8911 | 23% | Measured |
4/5/2020 | 9549 | 2049 | 10960 | 22% | Measured |
4/6/2020 | 9911 | 2411 | 13371 | 21% | Estimated |
4/7/2020 | 10308 | 2808 | 16179 | 20% | Estimated |
4/8/2020 | 10736 | 3236 | 19415 | 19% | Estimated |
4/9/2020 | 11189 | 3689 | 23104 | 18% | Estimated |
4/10/2020 | 11659 | 4159 | 27263 | 17% | Estimated |
4/11/2020 | 12135 | 4635 | 31898 | 16% | Estimated |
4/12/2020 | 12604 | 5104 | 37001 | 15% | Estimated |
4/13/2020 | 13050 | 5550 | 42552 | 14% | Estimated |
4/14/2020 | 13457 | 5957 | 48509 | 13% | Estimated |
4/15/2020 | 13806 | 6306 | 54815 | 12% | Estimated |
4/16/2020 | 14078 | 6578 | 61393 | 11% | Estimated |
4/17/2020 | 14253 | 6753 | 68146 | 10% | Estimated |
4/18/2020 | 14315 | 6815 | 74961 | 9% | Estimated |
4/19/2020 | 14246 | 6746 | 81707 | 8% | Estimated |
4/20/2020 | 14037 | 6537 | 88244 | 7% | Estimated |
4/21/2020 | 13677 | 6177 | 94421 | 6% | Estimated |
4/22/2020 | 13165 | 5665 | 100086 | 5% | Estimated |
4/23/2020 | 12504 | 5004 | 105090 | 4% | Estimated |
4/24/2020 | 11704 | 4204 | 109294 | 3% | Estimated |
4/25/2020 | 10779 | 3279 | 112572 | 2% | Estimated |
4/26/2020 | 9751 | 2251 | 114824 | 1% | Estimated |
4/27/2020 | 8648 | 1148 | 115972 | 0% | Estimated |
4/28/2020 | 7500 | 0 | 115972 | | Estimated |
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