Pakistan very rough curve forecast

Pakistan is in lockdown. It seems to be trying to contain the virus instead of going for herd immunity like The Netherlands. 

Michael Levitt algorithm after a while the virus burns itself out and the growth rate itself goes down by 1% a day. Note the spread is limited in Pakistan that you could argue it is vulnerable to a "second wave".

Normally around	3500		people die every day in Pakistan.
COVID 19 curve forecast (deaths)
Date	Total deaths per day	Extra deaths per day	Cumul. deaths	Growth
3/28/2020	3502	2	13	42%	Measured
3/29/2020	3505	5	18	38%	Measured
3/30/2020	3507	7	25	39%	Measured
3/31/2020	3501	1	26	4%	Measured
4/1/2020	3505	5	31	19%	Measured
4/2/2020	3504	4	35	13%	Measured
4/3/2020	3501	1	36	3%	Measured
4/4/2020	3505	5	41	14%	Measured
4/5/2020	3504	4	45	10%	Measured
4/6/2020	3514	14	59	30%	Estimated
4/7/2020	3517	17	75	29%	Estimated
4/8/2020	3521	21	97	28%	Estimated
4/9/2020	3526	26	123	27%	Estimated
4/10/2020	3532	32	155	26%	Estimated
4/11/2020	3539	39	193	25%	Estimated
4/12/2020	3546	46	240	24%	Estimated
4/13/2020	3555	55	295	23%	Estimated
4/14/2020	3565	65	360	22%	Estimated
4/15/2020	3575	75	435	21%	Estimated
4/16/2020	3587	87	522	20%	Estimated
4/17/2020	3599	99	621	19%	Estimated
4/18/2020	3612	112	733	18%	Estimated
4/19/2020	3625	125	858	17%	Estimated
4/20/2020	3646	146	1003	16%	Estimated
4/21/2020	3661	161	1164	15%	Estimated
4/22/2020	3675	175	1339	14%	Estimated
4/23/2020	3687	187	1526	13%	Estimated
4/24/2020	3698	198	1724	12%	Estimated
4/25/2020	3707	207	1931	11%	Estimated
4/26/2020	3712	212	2144	10%	Estimated
4/27/2020	3714	214	2358	9%	Estimated
4/28/2020	3712	212	2570	8%	Estimated
4/29/2020	3706	206	2776	7%	Estimated
4/30/2020	3694	194	2970	6%	Estimated
5/1/2020	3678	178	3149	5%	Estimated
5/2/2020	3657	157	3306	4%	Estimated
5/3/2020	3632	132	3438	3%	Estimated
5/4/2020	3603	103	3541	1%	Estimated