Alfen Benjamin Graham Defensive notes

The business is doing very well. The stock even better. The graph above is in a linear scale, next year I will add a log scale. They have an international runway for growth. 

Using figures for 2021. Sales EUR 250m Balance sheet solid. Shares outstanding increased to 22m. Not a bad idea to issue shares at this price. Price per share EUR 93, book value EUR 4,-. EPS 1 per share and increasing. P/E 100 

Alfen notes september 2019: Not for the Graham Defensive Investor

Mkt cap	264,80M
P/E ratio	410,67

Sales 2019 EUR 140m ? 

EPS = EUR 0,2

Book = EUR 8,3m equity / 20m shares = EUR 0,41 per share

Question: Why did I think there were 11,3m shares outstanding last year??

Price ...... wait for it

= EUR 13,24 

Earnings have to increase 500% for this to make sense... 

On the other hand the market for Smart grid solutions and Electric Vehicle (EV) is expected to remain strong.

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Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Alfen rough intrinsic value using Graham Number notes

New IPO at EUR 10 per share. Currently, 11,3m shares, share price EUR 12,25 per share. Market Cap: EUR 138m
The company is buying Finnish Elkamo for EUR 4,5m

Book value: Equity EUR 7,1m/11,3m shares = 0,6 EUR Book value per share

Adjusted Earnings Guess for 2018: 0,2 EUR per share. Graham Number (Geometric average of 15x Earnings and 1,5 x Book value = Graham Value EUR 1,68 per share.

The company is growing revenues quickly (plus 32% in the first half of 2018), but seems expensive at the current stock price. The company would have to keep growing at this pace for 3-4 years to justify the current share price.  The EV market could grow that quickly, but I don't know how much competition there is.

Current ratio: 30,4m/24,8m = 1,2
Long term debt: 8,6m (including Elkamo?)

Conclusion: Not a stock for the Defensive investor.