ASML priced to perfection?

Famed investor Peter Lynch said: "In business, competition is never as healthy as total domination." He might have liked ASML.

For a few years, I have been following ASML and often thought the price was too high based on this type of chart comparing Price and Graham value. It seems like the difference is getting bigger and bigger.

The problem with this chart is that it is lineair, whilst life is exponential (hopefully). Peter Lynch used a log chart which reflects growth better.

 See https://sinaas.blogspot.com/2016/02/investing-optical-illusion-why.html 

In this case there is a global chip shortage at the moment and business is booming better than ever at ASML, but I see a bubble in the log chart as well, similar to 2000. If you had invested then you as a shareholder wouldn't have earned much for a decade although profit and sales increased dramatically. 

Benjamin Graham Defensive Analysis:

SECTOR: [FAIL] ASML is in the Technology sector, which is one sector that this methodology avoids. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published. At that time they were not the driving force of the market as they are today. Although this methodology would avoid ASML, we will provide the rest of the analysis, as we feel times have changed.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. ASML's sales of €14 000 million, based on 2020 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. ASML's current ratio €27 3000m/6 603m of 4.1 passes the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [PASS] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for ASML is €7 000 million, while the net current assets are €21 000 million. ASML passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS]  Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for ASML grew by over 250% during the past 10 years. The company passes this criterion.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states must be greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. ASML's E/P of 1,5% fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. ASML has a Graham number of √(15 x €7,3 EPS x €30 Book Value) = €70

DIVIDEND 2,,75/734 = 0,4%