## Sunday, March 30, 2008

### People will give me money if Al Gore doesn't become the Democratic candidate for President 2008

If Al Gore doesn't become the Democratic Nominee for President I will get 27 cents US because I sold him short on Intrade.com this morning. I sold Al Gore for the nomination at 4% without buying first.

Right now people are willing to give you hundreds of dollars because they think there is still a chance that Al Gore will be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2008.

The flip side is you have to put (a lot) of money where your mouth is.

To earn \$ 27,- after costs (\$40 -\$3 -\$10 = \$27,-), you have to put up and risk \$ 960,- just in case the Democratic convention does indeed end in a stalemate and Al Gore suddenly saves the day and somehow wins. See the calculation below for a order of selling 100 options Al Gore at 4%. Somebody wants to buy 179 options at this price and somebody else 1000 options at 3,6% (Al Gore isn't a candidate at the moment.)

PS: (Shooting both Hillary & Barack will not help the people I am betting against because in case of a death all bets are off.)

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