Monday, April 13, 2099

Valuation of all stocks listed in Holland AEX All Share AAX: Benjamin Graham Defensive Investor method

Warren Buffett: "Well, start with the A’s."  Click on the companies below for Graham Evaluation:
Beter Bed Holding AEX:BBED, NL0000339703
Bever Holding: Small real estate fund, bleeder, selling under 5 Euro book value.
Boskalis Westminster Koninklijke AEX:BOKA, NL0000852580
Boussard & Gavaudan Holding Ltd. An expensive hedge fund.
Brunel International AEX: BRNL, NL0010776944
Corbion AEX:CRBN, NL0010583399
Core Laboratories AEX:CLB, NL0000200384
Ctac buy under €2,50
Curetis loss making biotech company = too difficult pile
Docdata: Cocoondd telt 0,35 euro in contanten neer per aandeel.
Delta Lloyd numbers expected August 17th 2016 with 220 million new shares.
DPA Groep N.V. buy at  €1,1
Esperite: Stem Cell Bank losing money hand over fist.
Eurocastle NPL Non Performing Loans in Italy... Results August 3rd
Eurocommercial Properties: Buy at €35 
Gemalto buy under €45
Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Monday, August 29, 2016

Francisco Parames Spanish Superinvestor quantifies intrinsic value and Margin of Safety

Spanish self taught value investor achieved a 2786% return between 1993 and 2015 compared to the index of 632% (Spanish and European stock markets).

Param├ęs is known in the financial world by the strong belief he keeps in his "Margin of Safety" investment philosophy, which prevented him from investing in technology stocks in 2000 or in companies in the banking and overheated Spanish real estate sector in 2007. Wikipedia link.

When many people were in a panic during the financial crisis, Parames showed his investors, that the time to invest heavily in equities had come.

The "Net Asset Value" is the "Mr. Market" stock price of the Fund. That is the price at which you can buy and sell on the day. The "Target price" is the intrinsic value as calculated by Parames. The "Margin of Safety" is the gap between the intrinsic value and the market price. When buying (investing) the larger the gap the better. In the short run the market price can swing wildly, but in the long run it approaches the intrinsic value. Investors who bought at 57 Euros in 2009, could sell today in 2016 for 175 Euros. A return of roughly 25% per year.  

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Gemalto valuation intrinsic value Benjamin Graham Defensive method



SECTOR: [FAIL]  Gemalto  is a IT Security company in a rapidly changing environment. 


SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Gemalto's sales of €2 131 million, based on 2015 sales, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Gemalto's current ratio €1650m/€967m of 1,7 is good but too low for this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for DPA is €800 million, while the net current assets are  €683 million. DGemalto fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Gemalto's earnings were negative in 2006 and have decreased over the past 3 years. 

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Gemalto's E/P of 4% (using the average Earnings over the past 3 years) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Gemalto has a Graham number of (15 x €2,1 EPS x 1,5 x €29 Book Value) = €36 

Dividend: €0.47/€61 = 1% 

Conclusion: Gemalto is not a stock for the Defensive Investor. 

For more value investing stock analysis see: www.beterinbeleggen.nl

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

De Zeven Zekerheden van C&A




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Tuesday, August 02, 2016

Eurocommercial Properties intrinsic value Graham Analysis


Eurocommercial Porperties owns store real estate in Sweden, France and Italy. Retail sales are growing in those countries in 2016 with the exception of Paris due to terrorist attacks.

SECTOR: [PASS]  Eurocommercial Properties  is a real estate company. 


SALES: [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Eurocommercial Properties' sales of €200 million, based on 2016 sales, just fails this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Eurocommercial Properties' current ratio €115m/€197m of 0,6 is too low.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Eurocommercial Properties is €1 221 million, while the net current assets are - €82 million. Eurocommercial Properties fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Eurocommercial Properties' earnings were negative in 2013. 

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Eurocommercial Properties' E/P of 6% (using this years estimated Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Eurocommercial Properties has a Graham number of (15 x €2,5 EPS x 1,5 x €32 Book Value) = €42,7 

Dividend: €2/€40 = 5% ?  


Conclusion: Eurocommercial Properties has a lot of debt (which is normal for real estate companies) and good dividend. The Earnings Yield is low.  This might be a buy at 35 Euros.

See www.beterinbeleggen.nl for valuation of great companies.

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Monday, August 01, 2016

History of share prices & bubbles



Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

DPA Groep N.V. intrinsic value Benjamin Graham analysis

SECTOR: [PASS]  DPA  is a HR service company. 


SALES: [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. DPA's sales of €116 million, based on 2015 sales, fails this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. DPA's current ratio €31m/€36m of 0,9 is too low.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for DPA is €14 million, while the net current assets are - €5 million. DPA fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. DPA's earnings were negative in 2011. 

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. DPA's E/P of 6% (using this years estimated Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. DPA has a Graham number of (15 x €0,1 EPS x 1,5 x €1,03 Book Value) = €1,4 

Dividend: €0.06/€1,6 = 4% ? Dividend 2016?  

Conclusion: DPA is not a stock for the Defensive Investor. 

For more value investing stock analysis see: www.beterinbeleggen.nl

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

CTAC intrinsic value / Graham analysis

SECTOR: [PASS]  Ctac  is a IT / ERP service company started in 1992. 


SALES: [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Ctac's sales of €86 million, based on 2015 sales, fails this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Ctac's current ratio €22,4m/€25,1m of 0,9 is too low.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Ctac is €0,87 million, while the net current assets are - €3 million. Ctac fails this test, on the other hand debt is decreasing.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Ctac's earnings have increased 300% over the past five years.

Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Ctac's E/P of 7% (using this years estimated Earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Ctac has a Graham number of (15 x €0,2 EPS x 1,5 x €1,1 Book Value) = €2,2 

Dividend: €0.06/€2,9 = 2% ? Dividend 2016?  

Conclusion: Ctac is a medium sized enterprise that is profitable, growing and returning money to shareholders. The price today seems reasonable. A buy at $2,50 .

For more value investing stock analysis see: www.beterinbeleggen.nl

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Sunday, July 31, 2016

It is simple: Life and principles. Dr. Rameljack

"If your life is more important than your principles, you will sacrifice your principles.
If your principles are more important than your life, you will sacrifice your life." Dr. Rameljack Psychiatrist see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLuiKOllVDY

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

The story of 2 bulls standing on a hill.

There's two bulls standing on top of a grassy knoll. The younger one says to the older one: "Hey pop, let's say we run down there and f*ck one of them cows". The older one says: "No son. Lets walk down and f*ck 'em all".

---------------------

The young bull asks how that would work,
The old bull starts to explain and a third bull joins them,
This new bull has his own ideas and the 3 start to discuss.
5 years later the bulls are still on the top of the hill,
They are still talking and knee deep in bullsh*t,
the cows have wandered off to the other side of the field,
where a single young bull is having his way with them."

-----------------

Warren Buffett's, partner Charlie Munger, explains it like this: "On the subject of economies of scale, I find chain stores quite interesting. Just think about it. The concept of a chain store was a fascinating invention. You get this huge purchasing power - which means you have lower merchandise costs. You get a whole bunch of little laboratories out there in which you can conduct experiments. And you get specialization.
If one little guy is trying to buy across 27 different merchandise categories influenced by traveling salesmen, he's going to make a lot of dumb decisions. But if your buying is done in headquarters for a bunch of stores, you can get very bright people that know a lot about refrigerators and so forth to do the buying.
The reverse is demonstrated by the little store where one guy is doing all the buying, It's like the old  story about the little store with salt all over its walls. And a stranger comes in and says to the store owner, "You must sell a lot of salt." And he replies, "No, I don't. But you should see the guy who sells me salt."

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Core Laboratories Intrinsic Value estimate AEX: CLB NL0000200384


SECTOR: [PASS]  Core Labs is a decades old oilfield services company. 


SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Core Lab's sales of €627 million, based on 2015 sales, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO:  [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Core Lab's current ratio €238m/€120m of 2 is ok.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Core Labs is €520 million, while the net current assets are €118 million. Core Labs passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH:  [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Core Lab's earnings have not increased much over the past ten years due to the fall in Earnings recently.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Core Lab's E/P of 2% (using this years estimated Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Core Labs has a Graham number of (15 x €2,3 EPS x 1,5 x €2,3 Book Value) = €16 

Dividend: €2/€100 = 2% ? Dividend 2016?  

Conclusion: Core Labs has a low Book Value being a knowledge company. Comparing the price to earnings and/or cash flow might be better than the Graham Number which works well for companies with a lot of assets.  The chart above is the Peter Lynch chart for Core Labs (in US Dollars instead of Euros). It makes more sense than this chart of Benjamin Graham value which reflects the low book value per share.

See: www.beterinbeleggen.nl for more in depth, qualitative analysis of "good" companies.

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Graham analysis Corbion (previously CSM) AEX CRBN NL0010583399

Note: I don't understand this company, the history or the numbers. I am clueless.


SECTOR: [FAIL]  Corbion is a bio-technology company? and therefore Benjamin Graham would consider it too risky. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Corbion's sales of €918 million, based on 2015 sales, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO:  [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Corbion's current ratio €338m/€135m of 2.5 is good.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [PASS]  For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Corbion is €166 million, while the net current assets are €203 million. Corbion passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH:  [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Corbion's earnings have not increased much over the past ten years and it has made losses recently.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Corbion's E/P of 6% (using this years estimated Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Corbion has a Graham number of (15 x €1,1 EPS x 1,5 x €8,2 Book Value) = €14,3 

Dividend: €0,40/€21,5 = 2% ? Dividend 2016?  

Conclusion: I don't know enough about the company or business to say much. Earnings of €1,5 per share x 15 = €22,50 shows the price (€21,50 per share) is not ridiculously high or low at the moment?  

See: www.beterinbeleggen.nl for more in depth, qualitative analysis of "good" companies.

My previous numbers had Corbion aka CSM making a profit in 2012?


Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Monday, June 20, 2016

Brunel International Intrinsic Value AEX: BRNL NL0010776944


SECTOR: [PASS]  Brunel is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Brunel's sales of €1 229 million, based on 2015 sales, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO:  [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Brunel's current ratio €439m/€128m of 3.4 is very good.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [PASS]  For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Brunel is €2,6 million, while the net current assets are €311 million. Boskalis passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH:  [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Brunel's earnings have not increased much over the past ten years.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Brunel's E/P of 4% (using this years estimated Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Brunel has a Graham number of (15 x €0,7 EPS x 1,5 x €7 Book Value) = €10,6 

Dividend: €0,75/€17 = 4% ? Dividend 2016?  

Conclusion: Brunel has a strong balance sheet. The business is not capital intensive so it will not have a high book value compared to share price. Business is bad due to the low oil price. Brunel provides staff for the energy sector amongst other things.  

See: www.beterinbeleggen.nl for more in depth, qualitative analysis of "good" companies.

Old chart before 2 for 1 stock split. The 40 Euro price (now 20) was too high a few years ago.

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Binck value trap? Graham Defensive Screen Intrinsic Value calculation Binckbank AEX BINCK, NL0000335578


SECTOR: [FAIL] Binck  is in the Financial sector, which is one sector that this methodology avoids. Technology and financial stocks are considered too risky to invest in. Several of Graham's criteria, like the Current Ratio and Debt to Current Assets, do not apply to financial companies. As a result, the company will not be able to pass this methodology, although we will include the remainder of the analysis for informational purposes.

SALES: [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Binck's sales of €170 million, based on 2015 sales, fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Binck's Earnings per share have declined over that period and fails the EPS growth test.

Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Binck's E/P of 8% (using last year's Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Binck has a Graham number of (€0,3 EPS x 5,9 Book Value) = €6,5

Dividend? 50% of Net Income: 0,20/5 = 4%

Binck seems cheap if you consider only (last year's) Earnings per Share and Book Value, but Graham would not consider it a share for the defensive investor because of the decreasing Earnings per Share (maybe due to new Belgian tax law on share-trading and competitor DeGiro ?).

It might be a buy around 2,5 Euros as it is buying backing shares. The lower the price the better.

See: www.beterinbeleggen.nl for more in depth, qualitative analysis of "good" companies.

Old Binck analysis based on 2012 numbers:




Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com