Monday, April 13, 2099

Valuation of all stocks listed in Holland AEX All Share AAX: Benjamin Graham Defensive Investor method

Warren Buffett: "Well, start with the A’s." Click on the companies below for Graham Evaluation:

Aalberts Industries 2018
ABN AMRO 2018 
Accell Group 2018 
Ahold Delhaize Koninklijke 2018
Accsys Technologies 2018
Adyen 2018
Aegon 2018
AFC AJAX 2018
Air France-KLM 2018 
Akzo Nobel 2018 
Alfen new IPO, 1/2 year report August 28th 2018
Altice AEX:ATC, NL0011333752
Alumexx trappen 1/2 year report date?
AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group NV 2018
Amsterdam Commodities ACOMO 2018
AND International Publishers 2018
Apollo Alternative Assets EMPTY? 
Aperam 2018
Arcadis 2018
ArcelorMittal 2018 
ASM International AEX:ASM NL0000334118 2018
ASML 2018
ASR Nederland 2018
Avantium 2018
Batenburg Techniek 2018
BAM Koninklijke Groep 2018 
Basic Fit 2018
BE Semiconductor AEX:BESI, NL0000339760 2018
Beter Bed Holding 2018
B&S Group 2018

Berkshire Hathway run by Warren Buffett

Bever Holding 2018
BinckBank 2018
Boskalis Westminster Koninklijke 2018
Boussard & Gavaudan Holding Ltd. An expensive hedge fund.
Brill, Koninklijke 2018
Brunel 2018
Coca-Cola European Partners 2018
Corbion 2018
Core Laboratories 2018
Ctac 2018
Curetis 2018
DGB Group cijfers 27 september 2018
DPA Groep N.V. buy at €1,4
DSM Koninklijke 2018
Dutch Star One 2018
Ease2pay 2018 a  holding for the https://www.ease2.com/ parking payments via Rabo app
Envipco 2018
Esperite: Stem Cell Bank losing money, selling shares. Price recently fell from 3 to 0,25
Eurocastle 2018
Eurocommercial Properties 2018
Euronext 2018
Fagron 2018
Flow Traders 2018, seems like a buy under €30
ForFarmers 2018
Fugro's 2018
Gemalto Thales offer 2018
Galapagos 2018
GrandVision 2018: Buy under EUR 15
Groothandelsgebouwen N.V. bought for EUR 56,92
HAL Trust 2018
Headfirst Source part of Value8 holding. Figures? Earnings 2017 before Amortization 0,30?
Heijmans losing money check August 17 2017
Heineken 2018, buy under 60?
Holland Colours 2018 buy under €70
Hunter Douglas 2018
Hydratec 2018
ICT Group NV 2018 buy under 9 Euros
IEX Group 2018 Sales 3m, losses 600k, not for the defensive investor
IMCD buy under 35 Euros
ING Bank 2018
Intertrust 2018
Inverko used to be Newconomy, is for sale, garbage (disposal) Price = 0,60 Euros
Kardan 2018
KAS BANK 2018
Kendrion 2018
Kiadis Pharma 2018
Klepierre cheap at €29? 2018
KPN not for the Graham Defensive Investor
Porceleyne Fles Koninklijke Check under 5 Euros.
K. VolkerWessels check after August 31st, 2017
K. VOPAK buy under 35
K. Wessanen 2018 
K. VolkerWessels
Lavide taking over childcare company sept 2017 
Lucas Bols 2018 buy now
MKB Nedsense 2018
New Sources Energy fraud
Neways 2018
NN Group 2018
Novisource turnaround
NSI Nieuwe Steen Investments HNK = Het Nieuwe Kantoor
Nedap NV Nederlandsche Apparatenfabriek
OCI NV buy under 16 Euros
Oranjewoud not a Defensive stock...
Pharming back of the envelope math
Philips Electronics buy around 20?
Philips Lighting
PostNL
Probiodrug loss making biotech, not a stock for the Defensive Investor
Randstad
Refresco Group  buy around 12 Euros?
RELX Group (formerly Reed Elsevier)
RoodMicrotec shareholder financed
Royal Dutch Shell
SBM Offshore 
Sif Holding
Sligro 
SnowWorld
Stern Groep 2018 a buy?
Takeaway.com making a loss, not for the Defensive Investor. Prijs 10x verkoop.
Tetragon investment fund including CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligations) NAV $20, price $12,44
Thunderbird Resorts: Negative book value and losing money.
TIE Kinetix Shares Outstanding: 2013:933 2014:1127 2015:1227 2016:1830
TKH Group
TomTom 2018
Unibail Rodamco a buy?
Unilever after Kraft Heinz bid
Value8 2018
Van Lanschot
Vastned Retail 2018

Volta Finance fund including CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligations)
Wereldhave, buy! 2018
Wolters Kluwer
Yatra Capital Indian Real Estate, losing money, stopping? Book 7,5 E, Price 5,75 E.

Other countries:
Starbucks 2018

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Kendrion intrinsic value, Mr. Market was a bit too optimistic?

Kendrion's motto is "We magnetize the world", the majority of their sales is to the automotive sector, but they don't seem to make (magnets for) electric motors?

SECTOR: [FAIL]  Kendrion is in the Technology sector, which is one sector that this methodology avoids. Technology and financial stocks are considered too risky to invest in. Several of Graham's criteria, like the Current Ratio and Debt to Current Assets, do not apply to financial companies. As a result, the company will not be able to pass this methodology, although we will include the remainder of the analysis for informational purposes.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Kendrion's sales of €462 million, based on 2017 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO:  [FAIL]  The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Kendrion current ratio €144m/€104m of 1,4 just fails this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] Long-term debt must not exceed net current assets. Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organisation. 
Kendrion has Net Current Assets of €40 million and long-term debt of €105 million. 

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for 
Kendrion's earnings haven't increased 30% in the last 10 years, therefore the company fails this criterion. 

EARNINGS YIELD: 
[FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Kendrion's E/P of 6% using earning per share of the past 3 years fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Kendrion has a Graham number of (15 x €1,4 EPS x 1,5 x €13.4 Book Value) = €21

Dividend:  €0,87 / €25,8 = 3%

Conclusion: Kendrion has been cutting costs to improve profits in the long term. The price seems reasonable here. Not a stock for the Graham Defensive Investor.

Do you speak Dutch? If so please opt-in at www.valuemachinesfund.nl Thanks in advance! Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajb@valuemachinesfund.nl

Monday, October 22, 2018

KAS BANK 2018

The KAS BANK has a new office and has outsourced IT. Profits have fallen sharply and the outlook isn't very positive. The Graham Value is relatively high because the book value per stock is EUR 14. 


Last year I wrote: "Conclusion July 9th 2017: KAS BANK seems cheap no at €9,6 based on the high dividend and good results in Q1 2017." http://sinaas.blogspot.com/2017/07/kas-bank-seems-cheap-and-pays-good.html I was wrong. 


SECTOR: [FAIL]  KAS Bank is in the Financial sector, which is one sector that this methodology avoids. Technology and financial stocks are considered too risky to invest in. Several of Graham's criteria, like the Current Ratio and Debt to Current Assets, do not apply to financial companies. As a result, the company will not be able to pass this methodology, although we will include the remainder of the analysis for informational purposes.

SALES: [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. KAS Bank's sales of €106 million, based on 2016 sales, fails this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] Long-term debt must not exceed net current assets. Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organisation. 
KAS Bank is a financial stock so this variable is not applicable and this criterion cannot be evaluated.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for 
KAS Bank haven't increased in the last 5 years including the first 3 quarters of 2016, therefore, the company fails this criterion. 

EARNINGS YIELD: 
[PASS]  The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. KAS Bank's E/P of 10% using earning per share of the past 3 years passes this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. KAS Bank has a Graham number of (15 x €0,8 EPS x 1,5 x €14 Book Value) = €16

Dividend:  €0,42 / €6,9 = 6%

Conclusion 2018: ?? The stock still isn't expensive, but not a pick for the Graham Defensive investor due to declining business over the years.

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Saturday, October 20, 2018

Kardan notes

Kardan 2018 neg. book value, creditors angry about bonus for CEO, stock down 50% to 10 cents


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MKB Nedsense beurshuls intrinsic value?

Peter Paul de Vries / Value8 company.

September 12th 2017:

Losing money, no activity.

Book value: 800 000 Euros

Market cap: 30 000 000 shares x 0,15 Euros = 4 500 000 Euros.

Seems expensive here. It is selling at 5,6 times what it is "worth".

October 20, 2018

last year after Septmber price shot up to 0,30 Euros per share from 0,15 = a good time to sell

Now not "Nedsense" but "MKB Nedsense".

Book value : EUR 1,3m

Debt: EUR 9m (at 1/2 year, one company has been sold to pay down debt).

Marketcap 34 000 000 shares x 0,18 price per share today = EUR 6m

Still seems expensive 6m book /1,3 market cap = 4,6x book & no profits.

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Behaviour gap




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Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Intertrust note

2017: Intertrust too little history: Earnings per share 2016 Euro 1,3 x 15 = 19,5 Euros: Price = 19,86 Euros

October 2018: Price 14,70 Euros, dividend 60 cents = 4% Earnings EUR 1 ?

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Tuesday, October 16, 2018

ING Bank intrinsic value, is Mr. Market too negative?

In 2018 ING agreed to pay a fine to the Dutch government as a settlement regarding shortcomings in the execution of customer due diligence policies to prevent financial-economic crime at ING Netherlands. The fine was EUR 775m but the damage to reputation and time spent will probably cost the bank much more. To put the fine into perspective yearly profit is around EUR 5 000m and equity is EUR 50 000m.  

SECTOR: [FAIL] 

ING is in the Financial sector, which is one sector that this methodology avoids. Technology and financial stocks are considered too risky to invest in. Several of Graham's criteria, like the Current Ratio and Debt to Current Assets, do not apply to financial companies. As a result, the company will not be able to pass this methodology, although we will include the remainder of the analysis for informational purposes.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. ING's sales of €17 773 million, based on 2017 sales, pass this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] Long-term debt must not exceed net current assets. Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. ING is a financial stock so this variable is not applicable and this criterion cannot be evaluated.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for ING haven't increased in the last 10 years the company fails this criterion. 


EARNINGS YIELD:  [PASS]  The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. ING's E/P of 9% using earning per share estimate of €1.


Graham Number value: [PASS]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. ING has a Graham number of (15 x €1,1 EPS x 1,5 x €12,6 Book Value) = €18

Conclusion: Now at a stock price of EUR 10,8 seems like a good time to buy ING.

Do you speak Dutch? If so please opt-in at www.valuemachinesfund.nl Thanks in advance! Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajb@valuemachinesfund.nl

IMCD intrinsic value is increasing

IMCD business is going well and the share price recently went up to 68 EUR and is now 60 EUR. I don't see a margin-of-safety for a value investor currently.


SECTOR: [PASS]  IMCD is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. IMCD's sales of €1 907 million, based on 2017 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. IMCD's current ratio €755m/€430m of 1.8 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for IMCD is €561 million, while the net current assets are €325 million. IMCD fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. IMCD's EPS were negative in 2012 and 2013 so the company fails this test.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. IMCD's E/P of 3% (using the average over 3 years) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. IMCD has a Graham number of (15 x €1,75 EPS x 1,5 x €14 Book Value) = €24 and fails this test.

Dividend: 0,62 EUR / 61 EUR = 1% and increasing.

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Monday, October 15, 2018

ICT Group NV stock price moves more than intrinsic value

Conclusion (last year): "ICT Group has a strong balance sheet and the Value per share is increasing, but at the moment the Price (quoted value) seems too high for the Defensive Investor at €12.2 in June 2017. People who bought after 2009 are right to be satisfied with the company's as well as the share's recent performance." After that, the share price went up to €17 and is now down to €11,75.

 
"The Intelligent Investor" Benjamin Graham Defensive analysis:

SECTOR: [PASS]  ICT Group is in process management. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published. 

SALES: [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. 
ICT Group sales of €105 million, based on 2017 sales, fails this test.

CURRENT RATIO:  [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. 
ICT Group current ratio €41m/€23m of 1,8 passes this test...almost ;)

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [PASS] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for 
ICT Group is €11 million, while the net current assets are €18 million. ICT Group passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: 
[FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. ICT Group's earnings were negative in 2012 and 2013 and are not higher than 10 years ago, so the company fails this test.

Earnings Yield:  
[FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. ICT Group's E/P of 5% (using last years Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: 
[FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. ICT Group has a Graham number of (15 x €0,6 EPS x 1,5 x €5 Book Value) = €8,1 

Dividend: €0.35/€11,75 = 3% 
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Saturday, October 13, 2018

Hydratec intrinsic value


SECTOR: [PASS]  Hydratec is a small conglomerate of industrial systems and components companies. 


SALES: [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Hydratec's sales of €169 million, based on 2017 sales estimates, fails this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Hydratec's current ratio €84m/€75m of 1,1 is too low.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Hydratec is €24 million, while the net current assets are €9 million. Hydratec fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH[PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Hydratec's earnings per share have increased by 150% since 2006. 

Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Hydratec's E/P of 9% (using this years estimated Earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Hydratec has a Graham number of (15 x €5,9 EPS x 1,5 x €43 Book Value) = €75,6 

Dividend: €2,25/€70 = 3% 


Conclusion: Hydratec is growing organically and through acquiring companies partly by selling shares, debt is increasing. Business in 2018 seems especially good. 70 EUR is sensible price at which to buy.

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Friday, October 12, 2018

Hunter Douglas (Luxaflex) intrinsic value is above today's price


Last year, June 2017, I wrote: "Given the increasing earnings and high Return on Equity today's price of  €80 per share might not be expensive." today the share price is EUR 63,41 and the company seems like a buy. Debt has been increasing (as a result of acquisitions?), so it is not a stock for the Graham Defensive Investor.

SECTOR: [PASS] Hunter Douglas is in manufacturing (of window coverings). Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published. 

SALES: 
[PASS]  The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Hunter Douglas' sales of €3 246 million, based on 2017 sales, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO: 
[FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Hunter Douglas' current ratio €1 550m/€1 003m of 1,5 just fails this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: 
[FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Hunter Douglas is €1 021 million, while the net current assets are €486 million. Hunter Douglas fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. 
Hunter Douglas' earnings have increased during the past 10 years by 50%.

Earnings Yield:  
[PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Hunter Douglas' E/P of 9% (using last years Earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: 
[PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Hunter Douglas has a Graham number of (15 x €6,1 EPS x 1,5 x €39 Book Value) = €73 

Dividend: €1.85/€63= 3% 

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