Monday, April 13, 2099

Valuation of all stocks listed in Holland AEX All Share AAX: Benjamin Graham Defensive Investor method

Warren Buffett: "Well, start with the A’s." Click on the companies below for Graham Evaluation:

Aalberts Industries AEX:AALB, NL0000852564
ABN AMRO AEX:ABN48 NL0011540547
Accell Group AEX:ACCEL NL0009767532
Ahold Koninklijke AEX:AH, NL0010672325
Accsys Technologies AEX:AXS, GB00BQQFX454: Too small, making a loss, but growing sales.
Aegon AEX:AGN, NL0000303709
AFC AJAX AEX:AJAX NL0000018034
Air France-KLM PSE:AF, FR0000031122
Akzo Nobel AEX:AKZA NL0000009132
Altice AEX:ATC, NL0011333752
AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group NV AMG:AEX NL0000888691
Amsterdam Commodities AEX:ACOMO NL0000313286
AND International Publishers
Apollo Alternative Assets AEX:AAA1, GB00B15Y0C52
Aperam AEX:APAM LU0569974404
Arcadis AEX:ARCAD, NL0006237562
ArcelorMittal AEX:MT, LU0323134006
ASM International AEX:ASM NL0000334118 BUY under €35
ASML Holding NV
ASR Nederland a buy under 30 Euros?
Batenburg Techniek
BAM Koninklijke Groep 
Basic Fit ?! don't buy above 7,50
BE Semiconductor Industries AEX:BESI, NL0000339760
Beter Bed Holding AEX:BBED, NL0000339703
Bever Holding: Small real estate fund, neg. cash flow, selling at 3,8 under 5,5 Euro book value. Plans to make money in near future. Buy?
BinckBank buy under 3 Euros
Boskalis Westminster Koninklijke AEX:BOKA, NL0000852580
Boussard & Gavaudan Holding Ltd. An expensive hedge fund.
Brill, Koninklijke kopen onder 20 Euro
Brunel International AEX: BRNL, NL0010776944
Coca-Cola European Partners
Corbion AEX:CRBN, NL0010583399
Core Laboratories AEX:CLB, NL0000200384
Ctac buy under €3,20
Curetis loss making biotech company = too difficult pile. Price fell from 7,14 to 5 June 2016-June 2017
Docdata: Now a  holding for the https://www.ease2.com/ Internet of Cars app, under construction.
Delta Lloyd now part of NN Group.
DPA Groep N.V. buy at €1,4
DSM Koninklijke don't buy over 40 Euros
Esperite: Stem Cell Bank losing money hand over fist. Price fell from 3 to 0,70 June 2016-17
Eurocastle NPL Non Performing Loans in Italy 10% dividend FFO Funds From Operations pretty good, selling at 8,55 which is 7% under Net Asset Value
Eurocommercial Properties: Buy under 40?
Euronext buy at €30
Fagron impairments
ForFarmers a Graham Defensive Pick up to €6,50
Flow Traders outside my circle of competence, seems like a buy under €30
Fugro's Graham Value has decreased, buy at €10?
Gemalto buy under €35
Galapagos is a clinical-stage biotechnology company, not profitable (yet?).
GrandVision : Don't buy over €20
Groothandelsgebouwen N.V. buy under €50
HAL Trust
Headfirst Source part of Value8 holding. Figures? Earnings 2017 before Amortization 0,30?
Heijmans losing money check August 17 2017
Heineken, buy under 60?
Holland Colours buy under €70
Hunter Douglas, good balance sheet, buy if under €70
Hydratec buy at 55 sell at 65
ICT Group NV buy under 7 Euros
IEX Group Sales 2m, losses 600k, not for the defensive investor
IMCD buy under 20 Euros
ING Bank buy around 10 Euros
Intertrust too little history: Earnings per share 2016 Euro 1,3 x 15 = 19,5 Euros: Price = 19,86 Euros
Inverko used to be Newconomy, is for sale, garbage (disposal) Price = 0,60 Euros
Kardan made a loss 4 out of the last 5 years including H1 2016
KAS Bank cheap now under 10 Euros ?
Kendrion buy at 20 Euros
Kiadis Pharma bleeder, not for Defensive Investor, no sales
Klepierre French Retail Real Estate 5% dividend
KPN not for the Graham Defensive Investor
Porceleyne Fles Koninklijke Check under 5 Euros.
K. VOPAK buy under 30
K. Wessanen 
Lavide not  a going concern (yet?) 
Lucas Bols buy under €15
Nedsense lege beurshuls
New Sources Energy penny stock
Neways electronic manufacturing services (EMS)
NN Group NV buy now under €40?
Novisource verliesgevend interim management 
NSI Nieuwe Steen Investments per February 14th
Value8 AEX:VALUE NL0010661864
Nedap NV Nederlandsche Apparatenfabriek
OCI NV buy under 16 Euros
Oranjewoud not a Defensive stock...
Pharming Biotech loss maker, issuing stock  72.977k...213.008k...407.687k...407.687k
Philips Electronics buy around 20?
Philips Lighting
PostNL
Probiodrug loss making biotech, not a stock for the Defensive Investor
Randstad
Refresco Group  buy around 12 Euros?
RELX Group (formerly Reed Elsevier)
RoodMicrotec shareholder financed
Royal Dutch Shell
SBM Offshore 
Sif Holding
Sligro 
SnowWorld
Stern Groep buy under 25 Euros?
Takeaway.com making a loss, not for the Defensive Investor. Prijs 10x verkoop.
Tetragon investment fund including CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligations) NAV $20, price $12,44
Thunderbird Resorts: Negative book value and losing money.
TIE Kinetix Shares Outstanding: 2013:933 2014:1127 2015:1227 2016:1830
TKH Group
TomTom
Unibail Rodamco a buy?
Unilever after Kraft Heinz bid
Value8 not much information
Van Lanschot
Vastned Retail check after share buybacks May 15th
VNC = too difficult pile: Geert Schaaij + Selwyn Duijvestijn 
Volta Finance fund including CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligations)
Wereldhave, buy?
Wolters Kluwer
Yatra Capital Indian Real Estate, losing money, stopping? Book 7,5 E, Price 5,75 E.

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Hydratec stock Price and intrinsic Value increase

Last year

This year, earnings 2016  were18% higher than I thought.
SECTOR: [PASS]  Hydratec is a small conglomerate of industrial systems and components companies. 

SALES: [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Hydratec's sales of €162 million, based on 2016 sales estimates, fails this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Hydratec's current ratio €56m/€49m of 1,1 is too low.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Hydratec is €15 million, while the net current assets are €7 million. Hydratec fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Hydratec's earnings per share have increased 140% since 2006. 

Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Hydratec's E/P of 8% (using this years estimated Earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Hydratec has a Graham number of (15 x €5 EPS x 1,5 x €39 Book Value) = €66 

Dividend: €1,7/€59 = 3% ?


Conclusion 2016: Hydratec is steadily increasing in value and the stock is not expensive, but the margin of safety (korting) is getting smaller. There have been a number of take-overs and sales of companies recently, so the underlying cash flow of the current companies should be looked at closely. In 2015 profit per share was €8,82, so you may think the PE is $46/$8,82 = 5 but €6,30 of last year's EPS was attributable to one off transactions. This year's (2016) earnings should be around €4 per share. 

Conclusion June 2017: The margin of safety has gotten even smaller, but the stock is still not expensive.
See www.beterinbeleggen.nl for valuation of great companies.

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Heineken: Price is what you pay, Value is what you get? Graham intrinsic value

Heineken: Price is what you pay, Value is what you get? Graham intrinsic value



SECTOR: [PASS] HEINEKEN is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. HEINEKEN's sales of €20 838 million, based on 2016 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. HEINEKEN's current ratio €8 137m/€10 243m of 0.8 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for HEINEKEN is €14 049 million, while the net current assets are €-2 106 million. HEINEKEN fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. HEINEKEN's EPS growth over that period of 63% passes the EPS growth test.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. HEINEKEN's E/P of 3% (using the average over 3 years) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. HEINEKEN has a Graham number of (15 x €2,9 EPS x 1,5 x €23,2 Book Value) = €39 and fails this test.

Dividend: 1,38 E / 88 E = 2% 

Heineken is a Money Making Machine that turns a commodity, beer, into a strong brand. The price at the moment though seems high, comparable to the peaks of 2002 and 2007. Mr. Market seems to be pricing in a possible takeover bid, but Heineken's controlling family has said they are not interested in selling...

For analysis of more great companies, see www.beterinbeleggen.nl 


Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Friday, June 16, 2017

Intrinsieke waarde is vaak niet wat Warren Buffett bedoelt met "intrinsic value"

"Intrinsieke waarde" heeft verschillende definities 
Voorbeeld aan de hand van Grandvision
Bedrag in
Miljoenen Engels Nederlands
 € 1.706  estimated value geschatte waarde
intrinsic value intrinsieke waarde 
In dit geval 8 x EBITA (winst)
 € 799  book value boekwaarde 
equity intrinsieke waarde
Alle bezittingen minus alle schulden van een bedrijf.
 € 5.016  market value marktwaarde
Price intrinsieke waarde
Wat de gek, "Mr. Market", ervoor geeft
koers x aantal aandelen
Bron:
Bladzijden 88-89 HAL Trust Annual Report 2014
http://www.halholding.com/xmlpages/tan/files?p_file_id=378 



Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

HAL Trust intrinsic Value and Price go hand in hand

The long-term correlation between share price and Graham Number Value (the geometric average of 15 x Earnings per Share and 1,5 x Book Value) often surprises me. Here is the chart I just updated for HAL Trust:


Note that dividend payments are not included in the chart above. Total shareholder returns have been even greater than this.  Total shareholder return has been 

SECTOR: [PASS]  HAL is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. HAL's sales of €8 800 million, based on 2016 sales, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. HAL's current ratio €5 487m/€2 768m of 2.0 just passes the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL]  For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for HAL is decreasing, currently €3 948 million, while the net current assets are €2 719 million. HAL fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. HAL's earnings have increased 70% over the past ten years.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. HAL's E/P of 6% (using this years Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. HAL has a Graham number of (15 x €10 EPS x 1,5 x €170 Book Value) = €196 

Dividend: Is a bit strange, it is 4% and determined by the share price in December..

Conclusion: HAL Trust has increased in value considerably over the past years especially, but the stock is not as cheap as it has been in the past, when compared to Earnings per Share. The book value increased after GrandVision went public at the beginning of 2015. 

Note: "The Company’s strategy is focused on acquiring and holding significant shareholdings in companies, with the objective of increasing long-term shareholders’ value." They seem to be very good at this.

See: www.beterinbeleggen.nl for more in depth, qualitative analysis of "good" companies.

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Groothandelsgebouwen after 54 Euro per share bid


Groothandelsgebouwen N.V. is a public company which owns the building in Rotterdam near Central Station shown below. The had a temporary staircase to the roof this year. In 2014 they wrote off some of the value on the building. With sales (rent) of only €15 million a year it is a too small company for the defensive investor. 


Another company offered to buy it for €54 a share, 13% above the stock price today. The company turned down the offer. The earnings have been adjusted to not include increased or decreased real estate value (which is reflected in the Graham Number through Book Value).

SECTOR: [PASS]  Groothandelsgebouwen  is a real estate company. 


SALES: [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Groothandelsgebouwen's rental income of €16 million, based on 2016 sales, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Groothandelsgebouwen's current ratio €7m/€7m of 1,0 is too low.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Groothandelsgebouwen is €63 million, while the net current assets are €0 million. Groothandelsgebouwen fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Groothandelsgebouwen's earnings were negative in 2014 (due to impairments?).

Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Groothandelsgebouwen's E/P of 7% (using this years estimated adjusted Earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Groothandelsgebouwen has a Graham number of (15 x €3,2 adjusted EPS x 1,5 x €55 Book Value) = €62 

Dividend: €1,55/€48 = 3% 


Conclusion: Groothandelsgebouwen has a lot of debt (which is normal for real estate companies) and an increasing dividend and increasing earnings from rent.  This might be a buy under €50,-.

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Monday, June 12, 2017

GrandVision intrinsic value valuation GVNV NL0010937066

Conclusion last September 2016: "GrandVision seems to be a great company with Return on Equity over 25% per year and growing sales and earnings per share, but it is not for the Graham Defensive investor. Buy under €20 ? " The price at the time was 25 Euros and dipped down to 18,80 in December.  
SECTOR: [PASS]  GrandVision is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. GrandVision's sales of €3 316 million, based on 2016 sales, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. GrandVision's current ratio €777m/€1 175m of 0.7 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for GrandVision has fallen to €615 billion, while the net current assets are - €398 million. GrandVision fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. GrandVision's EPS have increased by 128% in the last 4 years, GrandVision passes this test.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. GrandVision's E/P of 4% (using this year's earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. GrandVision has a Graham number of (15 x €0,92 EPS x €3,75 Book Value) = €9,3 and fails this test.

Dividend: €0,31/€24 = 1% but growing: For the years 2017 and beyond, GrandVision intends to pay an ordinary dividend annually in line with the Company’s medium to long-term financial performance and targets in order to increase dividend-per-share over time. The Company envisages that, as a result of this policy, the ordinary dividend payout ratio will range between 25 and 50%.

See: www.beterinbeleggen.nl for more in depth, qualitative analysis of "good" companies.

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Saturday, June 10, 2017

Gemalto improved balance sheet and Price vs intrinsic Value

Last time I looked at Gemalto: http://sinaas.blogspot.nl/2016/08/gemalto-valuation-intrinsic-value.html  the price was 60 Euros and it failed the Benjamin Graham Defensive investor balance sheet tests. Things look better now. 

SECTOR: [FAIL]  Gemalto  is a IT Security company in a rapidly changing environment. 


SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Gemalto's sales of €2 136 million, based on 2016 sales, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [PASS]  The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Gemalto's current ratio €1 947m/€989m of 2,0 passes this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [PASS]  For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Gemalto is €823 million, while the net current assets are  €958 million. Gemalto passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Gemalto's earnings have increased 60% over the past ten years. 

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Gemalto's E/P of 4% (using the average Earnings over the past 3 years) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Gemalto has a Graham number of (15 x €2,0 EPS x 1,5 x €30 Book Value) = €36,6 

Dividend: €0.50/€52 = 1% 

Conclusion last year at 60 Euros: Gemalto is not a stock for the Defensive Investor. Now: It might be a buy under 35 Euros.

For more value investing stock analysis see: www.beterinbeleggen.nl

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com