Monday, April 13, 2099

Valuation of all stocks listed in Holland AEX All Share AAX: Benjamin Graham Defensive Investor method

Warren Buffett: "Well, start with the A’s." Click on the companies below for Graham Evaluation:

Aalberts Industries 2019
ABN AMRO 2019 
Accell Group 2019 
Ahold Delhaize Koninklijke 2019
Accsys Technologies 2019
Adyen 2019
Aegon 2019
AFC AJAX 2018
Air France-KLM 2018 
Akzo Nobel 2018 
Alfen 2019
Altice 2019
Alumexx 2018 (voorheen Phelix, Inverko, Newconomy)
AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group NV 2019
Amsterdam Commodities ACOMO 2018
AND International Publishers 2019
Apollo Alternative Assets EMPTY? 
Aperam 2018
Arcadis 2019
ArcelorMittal 2018 
ASM International 2019
ASML 2019
ASR Nederland 2018
Avantium 2018
Batenburg Techniek 2018
BAM Koninklijke Groep 2019
Basic Fit 2018
BE Semiconductor AEX:BESI, NL0000339760 2018
Beter Bed Holding 2018
B&S Group 2019

Berkshire Hathway run by Warren Buffett

Bever Holding 2018
BinckBank 2018
Boskalis Westminster Koninklijke 2019
Boussard & Gavaudan Holding Ltd. An expensive hedge fund.
Brill, Koninklijke 2018
Brunel 2018
Coca-Cola European Partners 2018
Corbion 2019
Core Laboratories 2018
Ctac 2018
Curetis 2018
DGB Group cijfers 27 september 2018
DPA Groep N.V. buy at €1,4
DSM Koninklijke 2018
Dutch Star One 2018
Ease2pay 2018 a  holding for the https://www.ease2.com/ parking payments via Rabo app
Envipco 2018
Eurocastle 2018
Eurocommercial Properties 2019
Euronext 2018
Fagron 2018
Flow Traders 2018, seems like a buy under €30
FNG 2018
ForFarmers 2018
Fugro's 2018
Gemalto Thales offer 2018
Galapagos 2018
GrandVision 2019 EUR 28 offer
Groothandelsgebouwen N.V. bought for EUR 56,92
HAL Trust 2018
Headfirst verkocht, lege beurshuls 2018
Heijmans 2018
Heineken 2018, buy under 60?
Holland Colours 2018 buy under €70
Hunter Douglas 2018
Hydratec 2018
ICT Group NV 2018 buy under 9 Euros
IEX Group 2018 Sales 3m, losses 600k, not for the defensive investor
IMCD 2018
ING Bank 2018
Intertrust 2018
Kardan 2018
KAS BANK 2018
Kendrion 2019
Kiadis Pharma 2019
Klepierre cheap at €29? 2018
KPN 2018
Porceleyne Fles Koninklijke 2018
K. VolkerWessels check after August 31st, 2017
K. VOPAK 2018
K. Wessanen 2019 buy out?
K. VolkerWessels 2018
Lavide sold childcare company oct 2018 1 Euro 
Lucas Bols 2019
Nedap 2018
MKB Nedsense 2018
New Sources Energy 2018 fraud
Neways 2018
NIBC 2018
NN Group 2018
Novisource 2018
NSI Nieuwe Steen Investments HNK = Het Nieuwe Kantoor 2018
OCI 2018
Oranjewoud 2018 
Ordina 2019
Pershing Square 2018
Pharming back of the envelope math 2018
Philips 2018
PostNL 2018
Probiodrug 2018
Randstad 2018
Real Estates 2018
RELX 2018
RoodMicrotec 2018
Royal Dutch Shell 2019
SBM Offshore 2018
Sif Holding 2018
Signify Philips Lighting 2018
Sligro 2018
SnowWorld 2018
Stern Groep 2018 a buy?
Takeaway.com 2018
Tetragon 2018
Thunderbird Resorts 2018
TIE Kinetix 2018
TKH Group 2018
TomTom 2018
Unibail Rodamco 2018 a buy?
Unilever 2018
Value8 2018
Van Lanschot 2018
Vastned Retail 2018

Volta Finance fund including CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligations)
WDP 2018
Wereldhave, buy! 2019
Wolters Kluwer 2018
Yatra Capital Indian Real Estate, 2017: losing money, stopping? Book 7,5 E, Price 5,75 E.
2018 "As the Company has exited or is in the process of exiting all of its investments the shareholders passed a special resolution at its Annual General Meeting on September 17, 2018 to put the Company into liquidation and is in the process of realising its assets, settling liabilities and distributing the assets. Price EUR 3,5 cash payout Eur 4 to 4,40 in 2019? but not for people who buy the shares today (December 18th 2018)?

R.I.P.
Esperite: 2018 Stem Cell Bank losing money, selling shares. Price recently fell from 3 to 0,25
oktober 2019 falliet, koers: 0,046 geen handel.

Other countries:
Starbucks

Saturday, October 19, 2019

Ordina simple Benjamin Graham Defensive Intrinsic Value cq. Valuation

The Ordina share price is the same as a year ago, https://sinaas.blogspot.com/2018/11/ordina-intrinsic-value-is-lower-than.html  but business (and thus the intrinsic value) has improved. The share price now seems more attractive than a year ago.



SECTOR: [PASS]  Ordina is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES:  [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Ordina's sales of €352 million, based on 2017 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Ordina's current ratio €81m/€83m of 1.0 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. Ordina had no long-term debt, but due to IFRS 16 rules now posts lease obligations as a debt of €27m, the net current assets are minus €2 millionOrdina fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL]  Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Ordina made a loss in 2013 and 2015.

EARNINGS YIELD:  [PASS]  The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Ordina's E/P of 7% (using this year's estimated earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value:  [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Ordina has a Graham number of (15 x €0,09 EPS x 1,5 x €1,7 Book Value) = €1,8 and just passes this test.

Dividend €0,05/€1,66 = 3%

Conclusion: The stock seems fairly priced.

Friday, October 18, 2019

Kiadis Pharma intrinsic value oktober 2019. Not for the Graham Defensive Investor

Revenue = 0 EUR


Book value = EUR 50m Equity / 26m shares = EUR 2 per share (Twice what it was last year due to cash injection through private placement sale of new shares at EUR 9 per share)

The share price has fallen from EUR 12,20 (2018 below) to EUR 2,5 today. Just today down by 50% after bad news around one of the drugs under development. 

Burning through cash quickly, less than 2 years on hand?

Conclusion: Even at this new lower price not a stock for the Graham Defensive Investor.

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2018 back of the envelope math:

Book value = EUR 25m Equity / 20,1m shares = EUR 1 per share

Current share price: EUR 12,20

Price of private placement March 2018 (sale of shares to raise money for company) EUR 9,-

The company is developing something which could benefit the health of a lot of people and earn money for investors. How much that could be per share is outside my "circle of competence"




Let us invest for you (min. EUR 100 000,-) www.valuemachinesfund.nl

Friday, October 11, 2019

Aegon Benjamin Graham Intrinsic Value and Stock Price



Around 2000 there was a bubble in (Dutch) stocks and dot.coms. You can see that in the graph above. What you don't see is dividends. Aegon is paying a 30 cent dividend, the share price is EUR 3,86 that results in a dividend yield of EUR 0,3/EUR 3,86 = 8%

This year I calculated a book value per share of EUR 5, Equity EUR 10,3b / 2,05b shares = EUR 5 per share. Last year I had EUR 11 per share and Aegon reports EUR 10 and/or EUR 7,7 so I seem to have made a mistake...

AEGON has an annual report of 393 pages and a Market Cap of 11 billion Euros. Berkshire Hathaway (run by Warren Buffett) has a Market  Cap of 500 billion $ and an Annual Report of 124 pages....  Management at Aegon intends to return 2,1 billion Euros in a few years, that is 20% of the market cap...  Aegon seems cheap, but I don't understand it. I wonder why they don't buy back more shares (at this low price) rather than increasing dividends? 

SECTOR: FAIL AEGON is in the Financial sector, which is one sector that this methodology avoids. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published even decades ago. Several of Graham's criteria, like the Current Ratio and Debt to Current Assets, do not apply to financial companies. As a result, the company will not be able to pass this methodology, although we will include the remainder of the analysis for informational purposes.

SALES: PASS The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than 260 million Euros. AEGON's revenue of  20 000 million, based on 2018 sales, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO: FAIL The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. AEGON is a financial stock so the current ratio analysis cannot be applied and this criterion cannot be evaluated.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: FAIL Long-term debt must not exceed net current assets. Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. AEGON is a financial stock so this variable is not applicable and this criterion cannot be evaluated.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: FAIL Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for AEGON were negative in 2015 and thus fails this test.

EARNINGS YIELD: PASS The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. AEGON's E/P of 15% passes this test.

Graham Number value: PASS The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. AEGON has a Graham number of (15 x €0,6 EPS x €5 Book Value) = €7

DIVIDEND: AEGON pays an increasing dividend of 0,3/3,8 = 8%.

Conclusion: Aegon seems cheap, pays a good dividend, but is outside my circle of competence. 

Tuesday, October 08, 2019

Adyen 2019 Graham Defensive Value and Stock Price



The Price is very different than what a Benjamin Graham Defensive Investor might be willing to pay.

At Earnings per Sahe of roughly 7 Euros? The company is selling at a Price / Earnings ratio of over 86. Profits must increase by over 500% in the near future to justify the current price that "Mr. Market" is asking.

The company itself seems fantastic, great growth and a good balance sheet.

Sales: 2 000 million Euros in 2019? (Over EUR 200b processed).

Current Ratio: 1,3  , Long Term Debt is lower than Net Current Assets.

Dividend: Adyen intends to retain any profits to expand the growth and development of Adyen's business and, therefore, does not anticipate paying dividends to its Shareholders in the foreseeable future.

Chances are 240 Euros is nearer intrinsic value than today Price of 600 Euros? Time will tell.

Question for growth is what is the TAM: Total Addressable Market and how much can Adyen get? I don't know.


Friday, October 04, 2019

Accsys intrinsic value?

Update October 2019:
Sales have increased to €75m, but still making a loss. The Van Piuijenbroek family bought 6,2m shares @92 cents providing funding.

Book value €73,6m/116m shares = 64 cents per share.

Share price = €1,13

Book value per share and share price have both increased since last June 2018. Too difficult pile..
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Accsys Technologies PLC (LSE:AXS and AS:AXS) is an intellectual property and chemical technology group focused on the transformation of wood through acetylation. This is done by reacting the wood with acetic anhydride, which comes from acetic acid (known as vinegar when in its dilute form).
Bron: FD
When the free hydroxyl group is transformed to an acetyl group, the ability of the wood to absorb water is greatly reduced, rendering the wood more dimensionally stable and, because it is no longer digestible, extremely durable.

Year ending March 31st 2018, sales have gone up 6%, but gross profit euros has decreased. The company is losing 8 cents per share, but will open new production in 2018 and 2019.

You could argue that financing new projects like this (and in the past shipping companies like the VOC, railroads, etc) is what public equity is meant for.

The company has sold 20 million shares in the past year to bring in more funding.

Book value is roughly Equity 43m Euros / 111m shares = 40 cents per share book value.

A price of 20 cents per share might be interesting? The price is... 92 cents per share.

Conclusion: Not an investment for the Graham Defensive Investor. 

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajb@valuemachinesfund.nl 

Tuesday, October 01, 2019

Ahold Delhaize Graham Defensive analysis

Ahold merged with Delhaize and value per share has increased from 7 to more than 12 Euros per share leading to an increase in the Graham value per share. After the Ahold Delhaize merger Amazon bought Whole Foods supermarkets in the US and investors dumped Ahold Delhaize shares. Hendrik Oude Nijhuis (www.beterinbeleggen.nl and co-founder of ValueMachines Fund) wrote in VEB Magazine in March 2018 that investors (Mr. Market) were (was) overreacting. Since then the company's Value has increased and the Price of the stock has increased even more quickly closing the gap between the two. (But I missed the boat = opportunity cost).

SCTOR: [PASS] AHOLD is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. AHOLD's sales of €63 000 million, based on 2017 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. AHOLD's current ratio €8 989m/€111 980m of 0,8 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for AHOLD is  €14 544 (was 4,526 million before the merger), while the net current assets are minus €2 991 million. AHOLD fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. AHOLD's EPS growth of 160% over that period passes the EPS growth test.

Earnings Yield:  [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. AHOLD's E/P of 6,5% just passes this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. AHOLD has a Graham number of (15 x €1,2 EPS x 1,5 x €12.2 Book Value) = €20,-

Dividend: 0,70 / 23 = 3%

Let us invest for you (min. EUR 100 000,-) www.valuemachinesfund.nl

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

AND (Automotive Navigation Data) International Publishers

Conclusion July 2018 when the stock was above 3 Euros:  "It is difficult to say how the company will do in the future. Still not an investment for the Graham Defensive investors even if the share price falls further." 



SECTOR: [PASS]  AND is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. AND's sales of only €1 million, based on 2018 sales, fails this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. AND's current ratio €1,7m/€0,8m of 2,2 passes the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS:  [PASS]  For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for AND is €0,2 million, while the net current assets are €1 million. AND passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. AND lost money in 2017, 2018 and 2019 YTD and fails this test. 

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. AND's E/P of 0% (using last years Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. AND has a Graham number of (15 x €0,01 EPS x 1,5 x €3,5 Book Value) = €0,9 (or ZERO there is no Graham Defensive value if the company is not making money, I put in Earnings per Share of 1 cent to get an orders of magnitude idea of value including book value.) 

Dividend: €0

Conclusion 2019: The company with dozens of employees and sales of EUR 1 million (with an m) is burning through cash. It can't find a new auditor, it legally has to switch every few years....  It is difficult to say how the company will do in the future. Still not an investment for the Graham Defensive investors even if the share price falls further.

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Prosus Ticker PRX Graham Defensive Intrinsic Value notes

Prosus comprises the international internet assets of Naspers [XJSE:NPN], Africa’s most valuable company. Naspers will be the majority shareholder of Prosus, holding at least a 73% stake in the group alongside its South African businesses, Takealot and Media24. The remaining Prosus shareholding will be the free float created through a capitalisation issue, the results of which are expected to be announced on Monday, 16 September 2019.

Mostly Tencent (www.tencent.com; SEHK:00700) >>WeChat<<, Mail.ru (www.corp.mail.ru; LSE:MAIL), Ctrip.com International Limited (“Ctrip”) (NASDAQ:CTRP), and DeliveryHero (www.deliveryhero.com; Xetra:DHER).

And Avito, Brainly, BYJU’S, Codecademy, eMAG, Honor, iFood, LazyPay, letgo, Meesho, Movile, OLX, PayU, Red Dot Payments, Remitly, SimilarWeb, SoloLearn, Swiggy, and Udemy.

Interim results expected November 22, 2019

Can't open the Prospectus... Have emailed to ask for a copy.

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Alfen notes september 2019: Not for the Graham Defensive Investor

Mkt cap264,80M
P/E ratio410,67


Sales 2019 EUR 140m ? 

EPS = EUR 0,2
Book = EUR 8,3m equity / 20m shares = EUR 0,41 per share

Question: Why did I think there were 11,3m shares outstanding last year??

Price ...... wait for it

= EUR 13,24 

Earnings have to increase 500% for this to make sense... 


On the other hand the market for Smart grid solutions and Electric Vehicle (EV) is expected to remain strong.
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Tuesday, December 18, 2018


Alfen rough intrinsic value using Graham Number notes

New IPO at EUR 10 per share. Currently, 11,3m shares, share price EUR 12,25 per share. Market Cap: EUR 138m
The company is buying Finnish Elkamo for EUR 4,5m

Book value: Equity EUR 7,1m/11,3m shares = 0,6 EUR Book value per share

Adjusted Earnings Guess for 2018: 0,2 EUR per share. Graham Number (Geometric average of 15x Earnings and 1,5 x Book value = Graham Value EUR 1,68 per share.

The company is growing revenues quickly (plus 32% in the first half of 2018), but seems expensive at the current stock price. The company would have to keep growing at this pace for 3-4 years to justify the current share price.  The EV market could grow that quickly, but I don't know how much competition there is.

Current ratio: 30,4m/24,8m = 1,2
Long term debt: 8,6m (including Elkamo?)

Conclusion: Not a stock for the Defensive investor.

Friday, August 30, 2019

Accell Group stock Price and intrinsic Value

Accell Group started a North American adventure in 2012. It just sold its loss-making operations there for $1,- As you can see in the graph the step into North America has hurt the geometric average of book value and earnings per share over the past years, that is the Benjamin Graham Defensive Value:


My Conclusion last year was: "Too difficult pile", if the price drops below 15 Euros a buy. 
After I wrote that, the price dropped to EUR 15,16 in November.... and then went up again.

Graham Defensive analysis based on The Intelligent Investor book Chapter 14:

SECTOR: [PASS] Accell is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS]  The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Acell's sales of €1 094 million, based on 2018 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Accell's current ratio €624m/€427m of 1.5 just fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [PASS] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for Accell is €126 million, while the net current assets are €197 million. Accell passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH:[FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Accell's Earnings per Share have not grown over the past ten years due to the expensive takeover of Raleigh North America.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL]  The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Accell's E/P of 4% (using an estimate of next year's Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Accell has a Graham number of (22,5 x €0,8 EPS x €11 Book Value) = €14. Today's price is: €22,65

Dividend: Accell pays a dividend of roughly €0,50, which is 2%


Conclusion 2019: Earnings should be better in the future, now that the North America adventure is mostly over.