Sunday, January 03, 2010

It's getting colder again, forget Copenhagen

After watching Burt Rutan on Man Made Global Warming, I decided to do (a little) research of my own and graph the raw, primary data, including 2009, of the temperature in my area: Amsterdam.

Rutan says that since 2000 it has been getting cooler, but here it seems to have heated up the past ten years.

On the other hand, the past two years have been colder than the previous three. A climate trend ? I don't think so (the title of this blog is just to get your attention), just as Nassim Taleb says it's ridiculous to look at the Dow Jones on an average day and try to explain a normal drop or increase. It's just noise. As far as climates are concerned even 10 years might be noise. The next decade will probably be a bit cooler than the last, but warmer than the average of the last century (even Rutan says the long term trend is towards more warming). I'd be willing to bet  I have bet on that 2010 won't be the warmest year on record, but I wouldn't readily bet that it will be colder than than the average of the past 100 years.

See also The Climate Bet between Gore and Armstrong.

PS: I can't find any news on global average temperatures, only news like this that 2009 was colder that 2008: Interesting "bias" in this article.

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer (a)

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