Monday, August 17, 2015

Oops. Wrong in 2013 about Imtech Intrinsic Value

The banks have pulled the plug on Imtech. Using Graham Value without taking debt into account (as Benjamin Graham insisted for the defensive investor) is dangerous. At we are paying more attention to debt today than in the past.

August 2015 Imtech shareholders get ZERO, a permanent loss of capital. Jeroen Brenninkmeijer of  was right about not buying Imtech after the first bad news appeared.

Here my previous posts on Imtech.

Imtech a possible BUY at around €10

Old chart February 1st 2013

Imtech 2012 numbers were expected February 5th, now they are delayed. 

2011 Imtech Graham screen: FAILED in CURRENT RATIO and LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS. Which is the reason they are now in trouble with the banks after a major loss in Poland. 

Book value 2011 was €932m/87,5m shares is €10,6 per share. The loss in Poland is at least €100million. Too be safe, we'll make it 232m. Guesstimate book value per share = €700/€87,5 = €8,-

New lower EPS estimate for 2013 €1,30 (was €1,7 in 2011). €0,- for 2012.

Guesstimate of Graham value: Graham number of (22,5 x €1,3 EPS x €8 Book Value/per share) = €15,2

Imtech guesstimate with 232 million Polish write off and 0.- profit in 2012 (February 4th, 2013)
Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer (a)

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