Saturday, November 03, 2018

Philips intrinsic value

I am estimating profits per share in 2018 to be 1 Euro.

SECTOR: [PASS] Philips is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS]  The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Philips' sales of €17 932 million, based on 2017 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Philips' current ratio €10 117m/€6 866 of 1.8 just fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [PASS] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Philips is €6 426 million, while the net current assets are €7 815 million. Philips passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for Philips were negative within the last 5 years (2008, 2011) and therefore the company fails this criterion. 

EARNINGS YIELD: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Philips's E/P of 4% (using the average of the past 3 year's estimated earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value:  [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Philips has a Graham number of (15 x €1,35 EPS x 1,5 x €12 Book Value) = €20 and fails this test.

Dividend €0,80/€33,7 = 2%

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