Monday, April 13, 2099

Valuation of all stocks listed in Holland AEX All Share AAX: Benjamin Graham Defensive Investor method

Warren Buffett: "Well, start with the A’s." Click on the companies below for Graham Evaluation:

Aalberts Industries 2020
ABN AMRO 2020 
Accell Group 2020 
Ahold Delhaize Koninklijke 2020
Accsys Technologies 2020
ASML 2020
ASR Nederland 2020
Avantium 2020
BAM Koninklijke Groep 2020
Basic Fit 2019 9 maart 2022 Jaarresultaat
BE Semiconductor AEX:BESI 2019 18 feb 2022 Jaarresultaat
Beter Bed Holding 2019 21 jan 2022 Q4 Trading update
B&S Group 2019 Feb 28 2022 FY results

Berkshire Hathway 2019 run by Warren Buffett Annual Letter Feb 27th

Bever Holding 2020 
Boskalis Westminster Koninklijke 2020
Boussard & Gavaudan Holding Ltd. An expensive hedge fund.
Brill, Koninklijke 2020
Brunel 2019  18 feb 2022 Jaarresultaat
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners 2019  16 feb 2022 Jaarresultaat
Corbion 2019 25 feb 2022 Jaarresultaat: uno
Core Laboratories 2020 
Ctac 2019
GeoJunxion formerly AND 2020 
GrandVision 2019 EUR 28 offer
HAL Trust 2019 buy at EUR 143
Heijmans 2019
Heineken 2019
Holland Colours 2019 buy under €100

Hydratec 2019
ICT Group NV 2019
IEX Group 2019 still losing money, not for the defensive investor
IMCD 2020
ING Bank 2019
Intertrust 2019
Kendrion 2019
Kiadis Pharma 2019
Klepierre cheap at €20? 2019
KPN 2019
K. Porceleyne Fles Koninklijke 2019
K. VOPAK 2019
K. Wessanen 2019 buy out?
K. VolkerWessels 2019
Lavide Holding 2019 
Lucas Bols 2019
Marel 2019
Nedap 2019
MKB Nedsense 2019
Morefield Group 2019 (voorheen Headfirst)
New Sources Energy 2020
Neways 2019
NIBC 2019
Altice 2020 end of December 2020
Apollo Alternative Assets 2019  delisted on December 28, 2020 and liquidated.
Batenburg Techniek: Taken off the stock exchange for 46 Euros by van Puijenbroek family. Good price for investors:  http://sinaas.blogspot.com/2018/08/batenburg-techniek-graham-valuation.html
BinckBank 2019 Saxobank
Esperite: 2018 Stem Cell Bank losing money, selling shares. Price recently fell from 3 to 0,25
oktober 2019 falliet, koers: 0,046 geen handel.
Gemalto Thales offer 2018
Groothandelsgebouwen N.V. bought for EUR 56,92
Hunter Douglas 2021 bought for EUR 175

Thoughts on share prices: Peter Lynch and Nick Kraakman https://www.valuespreadsheet.com/blog/dangerous-sayings-about-stock-prices

Thursday, January 20, 2022

Core Labratories stock price versus averaged EPS x 15


Core Labs has a low book value $3,4 compared to Earnings and Share Price $23,6 so a Graham Defensive valuation which was used by Benjamin Graham for industrial companies is not well suited.

Starting after December 17th 2020 the company sold extra shares to raise $60m. The number of shares outstanding increased by about 3 million. The share price was around $25 at the time. The money has been used to pay down long-term debt if I understand correctly. 

Peter Lynch made graphs with 15x Earnings per Share compared to share price in a log scale, the scale above is linear.

SECTOR: [PASS]  Core Labs is a decades-old oilfield services company. 


SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Core Lab's sales of $487 million, based on 2020 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO:  [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Core Lab's current ratio $187m/$93m is 2.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Core Labs is $188 million, while the net current assets are $94 million. Core Labs fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH:  [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Core Lab's earnings have not increased much over the past ten years due to the fall in Earnings recently. Results were negative in 2020.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Core Lab's E/P of 4% (using this year's estimated Earnings) fails this test.

"Peter Lynch" value: [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Core Labs has a Peter Lynch number of 15 x $1 EPS is roughly €15 

Dividend: 1 cent    
"Conclusion 2019: Could be a buy if stock dips under EUR 35."

Conclusion jan 2022: Not a stock for the Graham Defensive Investor

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Koninklijke Brill NL0000442523 Graham Screen


Founded in 1683, Brill is a publishing house with a rich history and a strong international focus. The company’s head office is in Leiden, (The Netherlands) with a branch office in Boston, Massachusetts (USA). Brill was listed at the Amsterdam Stock exchange in 1896.

SECTOR: [PASS]  Brill is in publishing and passes this test. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published. 
SALES: [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Brill's sales of €38 million, based on 2021 sales, fails this test.

CURRENT RATIO:  
[FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Brill's current ratio €19m/€21m is 0,9 and fails this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS:
[FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Brill is €9 million, while the net current assets are minus €2 million. Brill fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: 
[FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Brill's earnings have not increased from 10 years ago.

Earnings Yield:  
[FAIL] [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Brill's E/P of 6% (using last year's Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: 
[FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Brill has a Graham number of (15 x €1,3 EPS x 1,5 x €11,5 Book Value) = €19

Dividend: EUR 1,25/EUR 23,4 = 5%  The company has also paid out large one-time dividends like EUR 4 in 2018.

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Royal Boskalis Westminster Benjamin Graham Defensive perspective

Conclusion August 2019:  Now might be a good time to buy. HAL Trust, for example, has recently expanded its ownership to more than 40% of Boskalis. Not for the Graham Defensive Investor and not what Warren Buffett would call a "wonderful" company.

The CEO of Boskalis yesterday bought EUR 875 000,- worth of shares around the current price of EUR 17,50. That is slightly lower than the current book value of EUR 18,50 per share and slightly higher than than the current Graham Value which is lower than book due to low Earnings per Share at the moment.


Today January 18th 2022 the stock trades at EUR 27 per share. 


 Graham Defensive Analysis based on Chapter 14 of The Intelligent Investor:

SECTOR: [PASS]  Boskalis is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Boskalis' sales of €2 600 million, based on 2020 and HY 2021 sales, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Boskalis's current ratio €1 654m/€1 692m of 0.9 fails this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Boskalis is €548 million, while the net current assets are - €38 million. Boskalis fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH:  [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Boskalis posted a loss in 2016 and 2018 and thus fails this test. 

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Boskalis's E/P of 4% (using this year's estimated earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Boskalis has a Graham number of (15 x €0,65 EPS x 1,5 x €18,5 Book Value) = €16 

Dividend: EUR 0,5 = 2%

Conclusion:  Not for the Graham Defensive Investor at this price.

Bever Holding Opportunity Cost?

I don't understand Bever Holding real estate. On paper it looks cheap, but it doesn't pay a dividend and majority shareholder Ronnie van Putten might be able to make a lot more money? 

JaarVastgoed-
portefeuille
SchuldenHuuropbrengstenHerwaarderings-
resultaat
Netto resultaat
2006--€ 225.000€ 0€ 3.000
2007€ 132,2 miljoen€ 32,6 miljoen€ 0€ 0€ −225.000
2008€ 117,2 miljoen€ 31,4 miljoen€ 45.000€ −15,6 miljoen€ −13,5 miljoen
2009€ 134,7 miljoen€ 30,7 miljoen€ 30.000€ −4,5 miljoen€ −3,7 miljoen
2010€ 130,1 miljoen€ 21,6 miljoen€ 36.000€ 7,3 miljoen€ 3,2 miljoen
2011€ 129,9 miljoen€ 22,6 miljoen€ 59.000€ −25.000€ 1,5 miljoen
2012€ 127,4 miljoen€ 23,4 miljoen€ 62.000€ −2,8 miljoen€ −3,1 miljoen
2013€ 124,8 miljoen€ 20,2 miljoen€ 69.000€ −1,5 miljoen€ −2,5 miljoen
2014€ 129,0 miljoen€ 20,6 miljoen€ 20.000€ 6,3 miljoen€ 2,7 miljoen
2015€ 137,5 miljoen€ 30,2 miljoen€ 27.000€ 2,9 miljoen€ 29.000
2016€ 146,8 miljoen€ 31,0 miljoen€ 27.000€ 13,8 miljoen€ 9,6 miljoen
2017€ 150,9 miljoen€ 32,0 miljoen€ 27.000€ 3,6 miljoen€ 1,8 miljoen
2018€ 148,4 miljoen€ 31,0 miljoen€ 27.000€ 1,1 miljoen€ 5,1 miljoen
2019[24]€ 148,7 miljoen€ 31,9 miljoen€ 27.000€ 0,3 miljoen€ −2,0 miljoen

Source
https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bever_Holding  

External shareholders can buy shares underestimated book value, but don't get dividends and it is unclear to me whether and how they will ever make money. Basically zero-coupon perpetual bonds. It seems such a waste that the properties are not being developed, rented out and/or sold. Opportunity Cost? 
No accountant either, so something has to happen? https://www.beverholding.nl/site/index.cfm

Thursday, January 13, 2022

Koninklijke BAM Groep Graham Defensive perspective


BAM analysis based on Chapter 14 The Defensive Investor, part of Benjamin Graham's classic: The Intelligent Investor.

SECTOR: [PASS]  BAM is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. BAM's sales of €6 768 million, based on 2020 sales, pass this test. 

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. BAM's current ratio €3 845m/€3 559m of 1.1 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for BAM is €1 080 million, while the net
current assets are €286 million. BAM fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL]  Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. BAM's earnings have declined and were negative in 2020 and thus fails the EPS growth test.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. BAM's E/P of 0% using last years earnings fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. BAM has a Graham number of ((15 x €0,03 EPS) x (1,5 x €2,00 Book Value) = €1

DIVIDEND = No dividend currently.

Tuesday, January 11, 2022

China notes and questions

Personal notes open on Internet/blogger. Question: Can this be read on the other side of the Great Chinese Firewall? 

One country, one system. Freedom in Hong Kong seems over in 2022 with the removal of the Tiananmen monument.

Coronavirus seems to be isolating the country. Currently January 2022 no omicron variant cases in China, huge cities in lockdowns and camps. How and when will they "give up" are the current low numbers anywhere near real?

Fangkong in Bloomberg and "Snake Oil"book by Michael P. Senger

Chinese leaders have fused the concepts of public health and national security. This effort, in Chinese Communist Party-speak, is known as “fangkong,” or “prevent and control.” Local public security bureaus have been helping companies develop health-monitoring apps, and then making use of the data these apps spew out—everything from body temperatures to social contacts—to profile citizens in minute detail.

State capacity of this kind is growing around the world, in large part thanks to China’s efforts to export surveillance technology to countries from Central Asia to Africa that have signed up to its “Belt and Road” infrastructure-building project.

“Democracies must develop a clear and distinct vision for the future relationship between health and security so that China’s approach does not become the world’s,” write Greitens and Gewirtz.

Religions (memes) are considered mental viruses to be treated with the same measures? Like Falung Gong...

For investing the culture of Alibaba circle of "trust" innovation is interesting. as well as innovation and invention for example "new retail" and international expansion.

Common Prosperity

Good overview September 2021:  https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/09/09/assessing-chinas-common-prosperity-campaign/

Also "Common Prosperity" under Xi Jinping "we do not kill the rich to help the poor" At Alibaba a $15,5b investment in "Common Prosperity" closing divide rural and urban incomes, internet access, etc.  Investment with returns albeit it maybe low? As opposed to 

  1. Establishment of a RMB 20 billion ($3,1b USD) Common Prosperity Development Fund dedicated to the common prosperity pilot zone in Zhejiang province.   Basically a donation/extra tax?

We follow Li Lu who works with Charlie Munger and was trained as a value investor after fleeing China after helping organize student protests: He wrote this book shortly after arriving in the US at Columbia University (home of value investing): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/99196.Moving_The_Mountain  

At ValueMachinesFund we currently (2022) limit direct China exposure to 20% of the fund. 

To do: Reread Art of War 
Read The Analects of Confucius 

Monday, January 10, 2022

IMCD Benjamin Graham Defensive perspective

IMCD's share price has decreased by about a fifth from the all-time high last year. Depending on how you look at it, the share price still seems high compared to the Benjamin Graham Defensive value:


When making charts (of 15x Earmings per Share and Price) Peter Lynch used a logarithmic scale which shows relative differences better than a normal scale: 


 As Warren Buffett says: "It is far better to invest in a wonderful company at a fair price, then a fair company at a wonderful price."  

SECTOR: [PASS]  IMCD is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. IMCD's sales of €3 380 million, based on 2021 sales, pass this test. Sales have increased significantly in the past years.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. IMCD's current ratio €1 004m/€713m of 1.4 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for IMCD is €738 million, while the net current assets are €291 million. IMCD fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH:[PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. IMCD's EPS have grown by over 100% and pass this test.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. IMCD's E/P of 2% (using this years estimated earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. IMCD has a Graham number of (15 x €2,8 EPS x 1,5 x €23 Book Value) = €39 and fails this test.

Dividend: 1,02 EUR / 168 EUR = 0,6% and increasing.

The company is doing well, the stock seems to have been priced to perfection. Not for the defensive investor above EUR 50. 

Saturday, January 08, 2022

Albaba $baba Graham Defensive analysis

LOG scale 

Alibaba Graham Defensive Analysis:
SECTOR: [PASS][FAIL]  Alibaba is neither dependant on one niche technology nor a financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 
SALES: [PASS]  The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Alibaba's sales of $110,000 million, based on 2021 sales, pass this test.
CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Alibaba's current ratio $98 000m/€60 000m of 1.6 just fails the test.
LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS:  [PASS] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for Alibaba's is $21 000 million, while the net current assets are $38 000 million. Alibaba fails this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Alibaba's EPS growth over that period of 2 300% easily passes the EPS growth test.
EARNINGS YIELD: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Alibaba's E/P of 6.5% (using the average of last 3 years) passes this test.

GRAHAM NUMBER VALUE:  [FAIL] [PASS]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Alibaba has a Graham number of √(15 x $7 EPS x 1,5 x $55 Book Value) = €105 is almost equal to share price

Dividend: Alibaba does not pay a dividend, but is buying back shares. 

Conclusion: January 2022 at 130 USD: Alibaba is hoping to grow revenue by more than 20% this year and expand to 2 billion customers. Seems like a buy for a growth investors and almost for a Graham Defensive Investor. A buy for an intelligent investor. There is China country risk.

Disclaimer: I own Alibaba shares via www.valuemachinesfund.nl