Ansgar John / Sinaas

DPA Groep N.V. 2022
Esperite: 2018 Stem Cell Bank losing money, selling shares. Price recently fell from 3 to 0,25
oktober 2019 falliet, koers: 0,046 geen handel.

FNG 2019 Failliet 2022 https://fngnv.com/17-02-2022-fng-nv-vraagt-faillissement-aan/
Gemalto Thales offer 2018

GeoJunxion formerly AND 2023 EUR 1,1 distribution

GrandVision 2019 EUR 28 offer DELISTED on 10/01/2022
Groothandelsgebouwen N.V. bought for EUR 56,92

Hunter Douglas 2021 bought for EUR 175

Intertrust 2021 taken private at EUR 20,-

ICT Group NV 2021 EUR 14,50 private

Kardan 2019 June 2020: https://www.iex.nl/Nieuws/ANP-240620-111/Kardan-geeft-beursnotering-in-Amsterdam-op.aspx

KAS BANK 2019

Kiadis Pharma taken private in 2020

Klepierre cheap at €20? 2019 French

K. VolkerWessels 2019 taken private (again) in 2020

K. Wessanen 2019 buy out

Lucas Bols 2022 2023 Nolet buyout EUR 18 at Graham Value

Neways bought by Infestos

NIBC bought by Blackstone in 2020

Oranjewoud 2018 EUR 6 2022 https://www.tubantia.nl/enschede/sanderink-is-gesteggel-met-toezichthouder-afm-beu-en-haalt-oranjewoud-van-de-beurs~a1cadfeb/

Ordina 2022 bought at 42% premium

RoodMicrotec 2021

SnowWorld 2023 private at EUR 10,50
Yatra Capital 2020

Other countries:

Alibaba 2023
Starbucks

Thoughts on share prices: Peter Lynch and Nick Kraakman https://www.valuespreadsheet.com/blog/dangerous-sayings-about-stock-prices

Friday, November 29, 2024

Akzo Nobel NV stock Price and Benjamin Graham Defensive Value

Based on Chapter 14 of "The Intelligent Investor"

SECTOR: [PASS] AKZO is neither a technology nor a financial Company, so this methodology is applicable.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. AKZO's sales of €10 728 million, based on 2023 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. AKZO's current ratio €6 044m/€5 706m of 1.1 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for AKZO is €4,306 million, while the net current assets are €338 million. AKZO fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for AKZO haven't really increased.

EARNINGS YIELD: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. AKZO's earnings yield of 5% (using the 3 year average Earnings) fails this test.

GRAHAM NUMBER VALUE: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. AKZO has a Graham number of √(15 x €2,7 EPS x 1,5 x €23 Book Value) = €39 and fails this test.

DIVIDEND 1.98 EUR/EUR 55 = 3,6%

Note: Earnings for 2024 and 2025 are forecasted to be $4 and $4,5 At a multiple of 15 and stock price of EUR 60 may be reasonable. Not a stock for the Defensive Investor.

Thursday, November 28, 2024

Air France-KLM a twist on "public equity": It keeps flying because the public through the French and Dutch governments keeps supplying it with equity ;)

On 31 August 2023, existing Air France‑KLM shares were converted into new shares at a parity of 10 to 1. In other words, there was a reverse share split.

If you are a Dutch or French citizen you as a member of the public own Air France-KLM shares through state (government) ownership.

As of the latest available information, the shareholding structure of Air France-KLM includes:

French State: 28.6%

Dutch State: 9.3%

China Eastern Airlines: 9.6%

Delta Air Lines: 5.8%

Employees: 2.5%

Treasury stock: 0.2%

Free float: 44.0%

Cash flows in when the company sells shares to keep the planes flying. That is the opposite of share buybacks, thus the negative number here:

SECTOR: [PASS] AF is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. AF's sales of €34 000 million, based on 2023 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. AF's current ratio of €10 000m/€16 000m of 0.6 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for AF is €18 000 million, while the net current assets are €-5 741 million. AF fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for AF were negative in many of the past years and therefore the company fails this criterion.

E/P RATIO: [FAIL] [PASS] The Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio, based on the greater of the current PE or the PE using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "moderate", which this methodology states is not greater than 15. (E/P > 7%) Stocks with moderate P/Es are more defensive by nature. AF's Earnings Yield is 0% as an average for the past three years. Earnings per share of EUR 0,4 last year and the current stock price EUR 7,3 result in an Earnings Yield of 5,6%.

GRAHAM NUMBER VALUE: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price and is at 0 because the book value is negative whilst the price is 7,3 Euros. (I don't understand the Minority Interest of EUR 2 614 million.

NO DIVIDEND

Conclusion: The stock price is low compared to last year's earnings, but the question for the long term is whether any cash can or will be returned to shareholders...The last dividend payment was in 2008.

Tuesday, November 26, 2024

AJAX stock and Graham Value (with a bit of optimism)

Here a simple Graham analysis: My assumption is that Ajax is doing relatively well on the field and should thus be profitable again. Earnings per Share €1?

SECTOR: [PASS] AJAX is neither a technology nor a financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.

SALES:[FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. AJAX's sales of €152 million, based on 2023 sales, fails this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. AJAX's current ratio €184m/€164m of 1.1 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for AJAX is €190 million, while the net current assets are €20 million. AJAX fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. AJAX made a small loss in 2015, 2021 and 2023 thus fails the test.

Earnings Yield: [PASS] [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. AJAX's E/P of 0% (using last year's Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS] [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. AJAX has a Graham number of √(15 x €0,9 EPS x 1,5 x €12,1 Book Value) = €15

Dividend 2022 0 cents = 0,0%

Conclusion: not for the Graham Defensive investor, more of a gamble...

Thursday, November 07, 2024

Adyen stock price and Graham value

Log scale

SECTOR: FAIL Adyen is in the Financial sector?, which is one sector that this methodology avoids. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published even decades ago.

SALES: PASS The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than 260 million Euros. Adyen's revenue 2 billion current year, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO: PASS FAIL The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Adyen Current Assets EUR 9 551 / EUR 6 319 Current Liabilities = 1,5 is good but less than 2.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: PASS Long-term debt must not exceed net current assets. Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. Adyen has Current Assets of EUR 3 232 and Long-Term Debt is EUR 180 It easily passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for Adyen have increased 70-fold over the past 10 years.

EARNINGS YIELD: FAIL The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Adyen's E/P of 2% based on this year's earnings fails this test.

Graham Number value: FAIL The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Adyen has a Graham number of √(15 x €24 EPS x 1,5 x €115 Book Value) = €250 The stock price is EUR 1 300,-

DIVIDEND: Adyen does not pay a dividend.

Note from 2023 "The company is growing in the US and has room for growth in Japan etc. An interesting development in the USA is FedNow lowering payment costs and making payments instant. I don't know what that means for Adyen."

Sanity Check:

EUR 1 300 Stock Price / 15 (Price / Earnings Ratio) = EUR 86 EPS "needed" 3x today's earnings

Conclusion: Good balance sheet and growth. Not for the Graham Defensive investor at this price.

Tuesday, November 05, 2024

Aegon stock price and estimated value decreasing over time

SECTOR: FAIL AEGON is in the Financial sector, which is one sector that this methodology avoids. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published even decades ago. Several of Graham's criteria, like the Current Ratio and Debt to Current Assets, do not apply to financial companies. As a result, the company will not be able to pass this methodology, although we will include the remainder of the analysis for informational purposes.

SALES: PASS The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than 260 million Euros. AEGON's revenue 29 billion, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO: FAIL The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. AEGON is a financial stock so the current ratio analysis cannot be applied and this criterion cannot be evaluated.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: FAIL Long-term debt must not exceed net current assets. Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. AEGON is a financial stock so this variable is not applicable and this criterion cannot be evaluated.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: FAIL Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for AEGON were recently negative and thus fails this test.

EARNINGS YIELD: FAIL The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. AEGON's E/P of 0% based on last year's earnings fails this test.

Graham Number value: FAIL The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. AEGON has a Graham number of √(15 x €0,14 EPS x €5 Book Value) = €4

DIVIDEND: AEGON dividend 0,26/5,86 = 4,4%.

Note 2023

Saturday, February 11, 2023
Aegon
Sold NL business to a.s.r.

Too difficult pile now.

Notes from 2021

Monday, April 12, 2021
Aegon
Aegon seems cheap, but I don't understand it. I wonder why they don't buy back more shares (at this low price) rather than paying dividends?