Monday, April 13, 2099

Valuation of all stocks listed in Holland AEX All Share AAX: Benjamin Graham Defensive Investor method

Warren Buffett: "Well, start with the A’s." Click on the companies below for Graham Evaluation:

Aalberts Industries 2022
ABN AMRO 2020   08 Feb 2023 Q4 results
Ahold Delhaize Koninklijke 2020 15 Feb 2023 Q4
Accsys Technologies 2022
Bever Holding 2021 
Boskalis Westminster Koninklijke 20211
Boussard & Gavaudan Holding Ltd. An expensive hedge fund.
Brill, Koninklijke 2021
Brunel 2021
Just Eat Takeaway.com 2021
Kendrion 2021
KPN 2021
K. Porceleyne Fles Koninklijke 2021
K. VOPAK 2021
Lavide Holding 2021
Lucas Bols 2022
Marel 2021
Nedap 2021
MKB Nedsense 2021
Morefield Group 2021
New Sources Energy 2021
NX Filtration 2020 2022 half-year results: 30 August 2022
OCI 2022
Ordina 2021
Accell Group 2020  taken private at EUR 58 in 2022, great price for shareholders. 
Altice 2020 end of December 2020
Apollo Alternative Assets 2019  delisted on December 28, 2020 and liquidated.
Batenburg Techniek: Taken off the stock exchange for 46 Euros by van Puijenbroek family. Good price for investors:  http://sinaas.blogspot.com/2018/08/batenburg-techniek-graham-valuation.html
BinckBank 2019 Saxobank
Curetis 2019 traded May 2020 for EUR 0,29
DPA Groep N.V. 2022
Esperite: 2018 Stem Cell Bank losing money, selling shares. Price recently fell from 3 to 0,25
oktober 2019 falliet, koers: 0,046 geen handel.
Hunter Douglas 2021 bought for EUR 175
K. VolkerWessels 2019 taken private (again) in 2020 

Thoughts on share prices: Peter Lynch and Nick Kraakman https://www.valuespreadsheet.com/blog/dangerous-sayings-about-stock-prices
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Friday, February 03, 2023

Accsys Technologies

Update Feb 2023

"In May 2022, 13,798,103 Placing and Subscription Shares were issued as part of the capital raise to strengthen the Company’s balance sheet, increase liquidity headroom and fund additional costs to complete the Arnhem Plant Reactor 4 capacity expansion. The Shares were issued at a price of €1.45 (£1.23) per ordinary share, raising gross proceeds of €20 million (before expenses).  In August 2022, 306,329 Shares were issued following the exercise of nil cost options, granted under the Company’s 2013 Long Term Incentive Plan (‘LTIP’). "

So now 204m shares outstanding. Equity EUR 135m Book value per share: EUR 0,66 


Share price: EUR 0,98 (was EUR 2 in 2021 when growth was in fashion). 

The company is not profitable today. Growth is expected despite delays in building factories. 

Too difficult pile. 
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Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Benchmark MSCI World Index Fund Accumulative vs Asset Allocation


Fidelity MSCI World Index Fund P-ACC-EUR
Aandelenklasse
ISIN: IE00BYX5NX33


2022 -12,6%    -4% or -7%
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Monday, January 09, 2023

Aalberts N.V. share Price and Graham Value

Not including dividends.
Aalberts Graham Defensive Analysis:
SECTOR: [PASS] Aalberts is neither a technology nor financial    Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 
SALES: [PASS]  The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Aalberts' sales of €3,157 million, based on 2021 sales, pass this test.
CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Aalberts' current ratio €1 195m/€946m of 1.3 fails the test.
LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for Aalberts is €525m (and decreasing), while the net current assets are €249m million. Aalberts fails this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Aalberts' EPS growth over that period of 270% passes the EPS growth test.
EARNINGS YIELD: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Aalberts's E/P of 7% (using the average of last 3 years) passes this test.

GRAHAM NUMBER VALUE:  [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Aalberts has a Graham number of √(15 x €3,2 EPS x 1,5 x €20 Book Value) = €38

Dividend: Aalberts paid a (special dividend of  EUR 1,65 in 2021. EUR 1,05?/42 = 2.5%

Conclusion January 2023 at 42 Euros: A bit too much debt, price (koers) a bit too high at the moment compared to Graham Value but considering track record a buy at EUR 42.


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Saturday, December 17, 2022

Volta Finance notes 10% dividend

As at the end of November 2022, Volta’s NAV was €219.8m or €6.01 per share. 

Share price December 17th 2022: EUR 5 

Discount: 17%  

Dividend has increased to EUR 0,12 x 4 = EUR 0,48 = 10% 

With CLOs I don't know the "cat risk"... 


Monday, September 21, 2020

Volta Finance (AAX constituent) notes. 10% dividend.

Every year I go through Dutch stocks: A to Z http://sinaas.blogspot.com/2016/04/valuation-of-all-stocks-listed-in.html

Now V -> Volta

"Investment objectives

Volta’s investment objectives are to seek to preserve capital across the credit cycle and to provide a stable stream of income to its Shareholders through dividends that it expects to distribute on a quarterly basis. 

The assets that Volta may invest in either directly or indirectly include but are not limited to: corporate credits; sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt; residential mortgage loans; commercial mortgage loans; automobile loans; student loans; credit card receivables; leases; and debt and equity interests in infrastructure projects (the “Underlying Assets”).

Volta’s approach to investment is through vehicles and arrangements that essentially provide leveraged exposure to portfolios of such Underlying Assets. In this regard, Volta reviews the investment strategy adopted by AXA Investment Managers Paris (the “Investment Manager” or “AXA IM”) on a quarterly basis. The current investment strategy is to concentrate on the following asset classes: CLO; Synthetic Corporate Credit; Cash Corporate Credit; and ABS. There can be no assurance that Volta will achieve its investment objectives.

The Investment Manager

AXA IM is a multi-expert asset management company within the AXA Group, a global leader in financial protection and wealth management. "

Thought: if it is invested in debt, the returns might not be high considering today's low interest rates. (Libor Sept 2020: 0,39%)

Price: EUR 4,24 Net Asset Value (NAV) per share EUR 5,80 Discount (korting): 27%

https://www.voltafinance.com/media/29299/volta-monthly-report-august-2020.pdf  

Dividend: EUR 0,11 x 4 qaurters =  0,44 EUR / EUR 4,24 = 10% 

Volta seems like a buy here due to the dip in share price. I haven't done any homework on this. Caveat Emptor 

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Vivoryon: too difficult pile. Not for the Graham Defensive investor.

"Vivoryon is pioneering a unique therapeutic approach to overcoming the challenges in Alzheimer’s disease (“AD”) drug development. The Company has demonstrated evidence of the disease modifying capabilities of its lead candidate varoglutamstat, currently in Phase 2 clinical studies in Europe and the U.S.. Underscoring the unique potential of varoglutamstat in mono- and combination therapy settings in AD, data generated to date show the potential for cognitive improvement and a beneficial safety profile at doses of high target engagement.

As previously announced, the Investors (including Claus Christiansen of Nordic Bioscience) agreed to invest an amount of EUR 15.0 million in the Company by purchasing 2,054,796 new ordinary shares at an offering price of EUR 7.30 per share by means of a capital increase from the Company." 

https://www.vivoryon.com/vivoryon-therapeutics-announcessuccessful-listing-of-2054796-shares/

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Out of the box thinking & math. The Tesla "assembly line" starts with the atoms going into cars and ends with customer.

Out of the box thinking. 

The Tesla "assembly line" starts with the atoms going into cars and ends with the customer (payment). 

At first, Elon Musk considered the factories to be future "alien dreadnoughts" automated battleships. (the word goes back to the late 17th century when it meant a fearless person (who dreaded naught — nothing). The speed of the line should keep increasing with automation. Four years ago he expanded his view of the (cash flow) system out of the production box to the customer. 

On November 16th 2018 I wrote down thoughts and math on Tesla cash flow focus instead of profit: http://sinaas.blogspot.com/2018/11/tesla-innovation-is-often-based-on.html

"Math: Sales Tesla $75m a day November 2018, Toyota $700m a day (automotive, not an energy company)

Today:
Payment to suppliers after 60 days, delivery in 10 days = 50 days float.
$75m x 50 days = $3 750 float - $250m COGS at factory = $3,5b float
Sales doubling:
$150m per day = $7b float
$300m per day = $14b float
$600m per day = $28b float
Current Tesla long term debt: $10b 

If growth continues Accounts Payable should keep increasing, but the company will be generating cash (as well as profits) and be less reliant on external financing."

Follow up: 

Sept 30th 2018
Cash $3b
Accounts Payable $3,6
Debt $12b (including $2b current portion longterm debt)

Net debt: $9b 
--------------------
Sept 30th 2022 
Cash $21b 
Accounts Payable $14b
Debt $2b 
Net cash: $19b 

Sales: Tesla $210m a day (3x in 5 years), Toyota $700m a day 

Should be able to pass Toyota in a decade: 2033? 

In the short-term, automotive markets in US and China are very weak. Europe is very weak in general. On the other hand Brandenburg and Texas factories are increasing production, batteries are/were a bottleneck. Semi-truck production just started in Nevada. Cybertruck Texas soon. 

Long-term huge demand for batteries for electricity networks. Europe EV only in the 2030s. Teslabot coming. 

Valuation: 30% growth ten years? 

Chat.OpenAI.com (just online this month): 

"If a company has 10 billion in cash flow now and it grows at a rate of 30% for ten years, the company's cash flow will be $33.1 billion after ten years. This is calculated as follows:

10 billion x (1 + 0.30)^10 = 33.1 billion"

Tesla as a "cybernetic collective" may be one of the companies that profits most from the technological singularity we are currently entering.


$30b free cash flow x 15 multiple = $450b value. Enterprise value Tesla today: $482b 

If the stock price goes under $140 (now $150 per share *$450b/$482b = 140) a "reasonable" buy. 

Sanity check: Aswath Damodaran got roughly the same value (half a trillion) last year in his most optimistic scenario when the market cap was a trillion: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2021/11/teslas-trillion-dollar-moment-valuation.html
Sanity Check: Pass

Sanity Check 2: It seems there is a bug in ChatGPT? 

10 billion x (1 + 0.30)^10 is NOT 33.1 billion. It is 137 billion.

Closer to Elon Musk's October 19th 2022 calculation: "“Now I’m of the opinion that we can far exceed Apple’s current market cap. I see a path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined,” the Technoking said. Combined, the two companies are worth just over $4 trillion."
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Friday, December 16, 2022

Templeton Re-Balancing Program: Increase stocks from 35% (ly) to 60% now. Plus program for December 2023

Background:

Sir John Templeton used to give his clients a yearly program at the beginning of the year. If at the end of the year the Dow Jones had increased significantly, they should lower the percentage of their wealth held in stocks. On the other hand, if prices have become more attractive it makes sense to increase the percentage held in stocks AFTER stock prices have decreased. 

As Warren Buffett puts it: “I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”

Since December 16th, 2020 two years ago the MSCI World index https://www.msci.com/world (USD) has decreased from 2645 to 2637. 

Last year from December 16, 2020 to December 14, 2021, the index increased 18% to $3130. The "Templeton" program called for a decrease in stock exposure to 30%-35%:  

According to the updated John Templeton re-balancing program made in 2021, your percentage of wealth allocated to stocks today should increase to 60%.  

(See the top "60% Maximum in Stocks" row between 2566 and 2864, that is where 2637, the current level of the MSCI World index, fits.

Personally, I did not invest in www.ValueMachinesFund.nl last December. Now I increased my position in the fund which is 100% invested in stocks during the summer and now again by a substantial amount.

PROGRAM FOR DECEMBER 2023

The program for 2023 includes an increase in the normal zone compared to 2021 of 10% because of inflation and an expected increase in the value of companies.




For Europe long-term in Euros and with expenses a fund could be? https://www.fidelity.nl/fondsen/factsheet/IE00BYX5NX33/tab-overview
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Thursday, December 08, 2022

OpenAI December 2022

With the impending tide of human-vs.-machine moments, it’s existential that we avoid feeling useless. The Dali Lama nailed this idea that automation threatens the feeling of being “needed” in his 2016 NYT op-ed: 

“This helps explain why pain and indignation are sweeping through prosperous countries. The problem is not a lack of material riches. It is the growing number of people who feel they are no longer useful, no longer needed, no longer one with their societies.” 

"In the land of Wall Street,
where the money's so sweet

There once was a man, with a very sharp mind
His name was Warren Buffett, and he was quite a find

He knew that the key to success, was to look for a deal
A company that's undervalued, and has plenty of appeal

He'd carefully study their finances, their assets and their worth
And if he found a company that met his high standards
He'd buy up a big stake, and hold onto it for years

This approach, known as value investing, proved to be just right
Buffett outperformed the market, day and night

So if you want to be a success on Wall Street, my friend
Follow in Warren's footsteps, and your wealth will never end!"

Men & Machines together make the most money.
#ValueMachinesFund

#OpenAIchat prompt "Explain value investing and Warren Buffett in the style of Dr. Seuss"  
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022

Over a decade roughy 0,1% of the Greenland ice sheet melts.

Greenland has lost between 3 500 en 5 000 billion tons of ice over the past two decades.
 
1 Gt gigatonne is 1 billion (miljard) tonnes or 1 km3 of water or ice. Greenland has 1,8 million square kilometers of ice which can be up to 3 kiliometers thick (high). 

The total volume of the ice is  2 850 000 cubic kilometres which tranlates to 3 million billion tons of ice. 

Say 5 000 billion tons were lost divide that by 2 850 000 billions tons, then 0,002 or 0,2% (one fifth of one percent) has been lost in total over the pas two decades. 


This year, 2022, the total amount of ice in Greenland seems to be increasing: Source http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/




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Monday, December 05, 2022

Counter

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Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Vastned Retail Mr. Market Price versus "Graham" value ... 9% dividend


SECTOR: [PASS] Vastned is a store real estate company. 

SALES: [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Vastned's income of €62 million, based on 2021 sales, fails this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Vastned's current ratio €12m/€26m of 0,5 fails this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Vastned is €636 million, while the net current assets are  -€15 million. Vastned fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. I don't have enough earnings history for Vastned's to measure this factor. 

Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Vastned's E/P of 9% (using this year's estimated normalized Earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Vastned has a Graham number of √(15 x €1,9 EPS x 1,0 x €40 Book Value) = €33  (Note for real estate I use a factor of 1x book value instead of 1,5x book).  

Dividend (if restarted): €1,85/€21.3 = 9% 
Conclusion november 2022: Vastned seems cheap at this price. 
Context: Investors seem very negative about a possible REIT / FBI tax change that could lower earnings 5-10%. 


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Monday, November 21, 2022

Van Lanschot share price and guesstimated value


Van Lanschot seems to be on sale at EUR 23 per share with a book value of EUR 30 and dividend of EUR 1,50 (7%). 

The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_number is also not usually used for financial companies like banks.


For banks and real estate, I have decided to use 1 x book value instead of 1,5 x book value which makes more sense for other industries. The Graham Value is the geometric average of 15 x Earnings per Share and Book Value x  1,5 (in this case x 1).

Conclusion September 2020: (@ EUR 16 ) was: You can buy a Euro for 54 cents? (https://sinaas.blogspot.com/2020/09/van-lanschot-kempen-share-price-and.html)

The price increased 44% since then. The price still seems reasonable today (November 2022). 
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