Ansgar John / Sinaas

DPA Groep N.V. 2022
Esperite: 2018 Stem Cell Bank losing money, selling shares. Price recently fell from 3 to 0,25
oktober 2019 falliet, koers: 0,046 geen handel.

FNG 2019 Failliet 2022 https://fngnv.com/17-02-2022-fng-nv-vraagt-faillissement-aan/
Gemalto Thales offer 2018

GeoJunxion formerly AND 2023 EUR 1,1 distribution

GrandVision 2019 EUR 28 offer DELISTED on 10/01/2022
Groothandelsgebouwen N.V. bought for EUR 56,92

Hunter Douglas 2021 bought for EUR 175

Intertrust 2021 taken private at EUR 20,-

ICT Group NV 2021 EUR 14,50 private

Kardan 2019 June 2020: https://www.iex.nl/Nieuws/ANP-240620-111/Kardan-geeft-beursnotering-in-Amsterdam-op.aspx

KAS BANK 2019

Kiadis Pharma taken private in 2020

Klepierre cheap at €20? 2019 French

K. VolkerWessels 2019 taken private (again) in 2020

K. Wessanen 2019 buy out

Lucas Bols 2022 2023 Nolet buyout EUR 18 at Graham Value

Neways bought by Infestos

NIBC bought by Blackstone in 2020

Oranjewoud 2018 EUR 6 2022 https://www.tubantia.nl/enschede/sanderink-is-gesteggel-met-toezichthouder-afm-beu-en-haalt-oranjewoud-van-de-beurs~a1cadfeb/

Ordina 2022 bought at 42% premium
Yatra Capital 2020

Other countries:

Alibaba 2023
Starbucks

Thoughts on share prices: Peter Lynch and Nick Kraakman https://www.valuespreadsheet.com/blog/dangerous-sayings-about-stock-prices

Saturday, December 09, 2023

Prosus note

December 2023

Prosus owns 2 380 million shares Tencent

Shares Prosus outstanding 2 564 million shares.

2380/2564 = 0,93 Tencent shares per Prosus share. This should increase with buybacks.

EUR 35 in Tencent per Prosus share. Share price EUR 30

Share has "split" since 2022 https://sinaas.blogspot.com/2022/02/prosus-very-rough-graham-defensive.html

PostNL mail / letters decreased by 9%, booking a loss.

SECTOR: [PASS] PostNL is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. PostNL's decreasing sales of €3 151 million, based on 2022 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. PostNL's current ratio €1 028m/€984 of 1.0 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for PostNL is €1 057 million, while the net current assets are €44 million. PostNL fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for PostNL were negative within the last 5 years and Earnings per Share have decreased over the last 10 years, therefore the company fails this criterion.

EARNINGS YIELD: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. PostNL's E/P of 11% (using 2022 estimated earnings of EUR 0,25 per share) passes this test.

GRAHAM NUMBER VALUE: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. PostNL has a Graham number of √(15 x €0,1 EPS x 1,5 x €0,20 Book Value) = €0,6 and fails this test.

Dividend: 0,05?/1,4 = 3% ? The aim was "for a progressive dividend." this doesn't seem to have worked. The dividend recently of EUR 0,42 was pretty good. EUR 0,05 is a guesstimate.

Share buybacks have been halted.

Thursday, December 07, 2023

NX Filtration share price down 41%

Sales 2022 EUR 8,4m

Sales 2023 EUR 12m?

Market cap EUR 315m

Share price EUR 6,29 book EUR 2

In May 2023 CEO Michiel Staatsen became COO.

Still too difficult pile.

Saturday, February 25, 2023

NX Filtration share price and value. Back of the envelope math.

"Started the construction of our new megafactory with completion anticipated by Q1 2024 and start-up in H1 2024, needed to meet expected demand from our rapidly growing pipeline of opportunities for the medium-term." https://nxfiltration.com/

Equity EUR 142 000 000,-

50 000 000 shares

Book value per share: EUR 2.84

2022 sales of approximately 2,600 membrane modules. EUR 8 000 000 in revenue.

=> EUR 3 000 price per module?

Megafactory 80 000 modules. x EUR 3 000 = EUR 240m in sales in 2025?

Possible sales 240m/50m shares = 3 EUR of sale per share projected.

Share price EUR 10,70 market cap > EUR 500 000 000 seems enthusiastic.

Lavide Holding => Fair Financing Firm NV notities

Fair Financing Firm NV wil 10% van de winst aan goede doelen geven. Er is (nog) geen winst...

11 oktober 2023 Delisting uitgesteld;

De doorgevoerde wijzigingen zijn:

Een beursfonds hoeft niet langer een gecontroleerde jaarrekening te publiceren om delisting te voorkomen. Het nieuwe criterium is het overleggen van een getekende opdrachtbrief voor de controle van de jaarrekening over het boekjaar 2024. Het criterium om de penalty bench te verlaten is ongewijzigd: het publiceren van een door een OOB-accountant gecontroleerde jaarrekening.
Euronext Amsterdam geeft beursfondsen extra tijd om aan het nieuwe, versoepelde criterium te voldoen.
De nieuwe termijn zal niet eerder eindigen dan 18 januari 2024, waarmee de korte termijn deadline van begin november 2023 is komen te vervallen.

Voor Lavide is dus op dit moment vooral van belang dat de delistingprocedure voor haar aandelen op Euronext Amsterdam niet eindigt op 6 november 2023, maar op 18 januari 2024. Lavide zal zich in de extra tijd die het haar gegeven is ten volle inzetten om met een OOB-accountant tot een opdrachtbrief te komen. Er vallen nog geen zekerheden te geven over dit proces.

Lavide is lid van MidkapNL en dankt de voorzitter Peter Paul de Vries voor zijn inzet voor de vereniging en de betrokken bedrijven.

27 September, 2023 20:16

Lavide Holding NV sloot het eerste half jaar af met een verlies van 127 duizend euro en een negatief eigen vermogen van 232 duizend euro.

Op korte termijn zal een definitieve keuze gemaakt worden. De markt zal hier in een later stadium over worden geïnformeerd.

D.M. van den Ouden, CEO vanaf 27 december 2022 Diede van den Ouden (1981, Nederlander) is 20 jaar actief op de beurs. Sinds 2008 is hij professioneel investeerder, die zich vooral toelegt op beursgenoteerde bedrijven. Sinds 2017 is hij CEO en eigenaar van de family-office Kennie Capital B.V. De heer Van den Ouden werd op 27 december 2022 benoemd tot statutair bestuurder voor een termijn, die eindigt per de jaarvergadering in 2026. Hij bezit 235.000 aandelen A in Lavide.

Aandeel was EUR 0,7 is nu EUR 0,2 per aandeel. 5,7m aandelen /5 = beurswaarde EUR 1,14m

Oude notities:

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Lavide notes 2019 (June 2020) plus May 2022

Op 31 december 2021 bedroeg het eigen vermogen € 76.000 positief en het balanstotaal  

•  € 79.000

Op 31 december 2021 bedroeg het eigen vermogen € 76.000 positief en het balanstotaal  

•  € 79.000

Op 31 december 2021 bedroeg het eigen vermogen € 76.000 positief en het balanstotaal  

•  € 79.000

Op 31 december 2021 bedroeg het eigen vermogen € 76.000 positief en het balanstotaal  

•  € 79.000.

Book value EUR 76k at the end of 2022, market cap EUR 3m, still no business.

May 10th loan of EUR 10 000,- to keep the lights on.

Current market cap: EUR 2,6m .... not very logical in my humble opinion. "Trading sardines".

-----------------------------------------------------------

June 2020 notes

Lavide has a market cap of roughly EUR 1m. the headquarters are in a hotel near the Belgian border.

The stock price is higher than the book value and the company is losing money. Like other small Dutch listed companies it has problems finding an accountant.

"Strategie

In 2019 was het beleid van de nieuwe CEO er op gericht op een zo kort mogelijke termijn als beursfonds leeg te zijn teneinde nieuwe activiteiten in Lavide te plaatsen. Zijn wens om als leegbeursfonds een RTO proces in te gaan om vervolgens een aantal van eigen ondernemingen in de hospitality in te brengen, kreeg met unanieme stemmen voor support bij de BAVA van 10 januari. De verkoop van de vroeger dochters in de Kindzorg werd tijdens de AVA van 20 juni bekrachtigd. Voor 2020 is de strategie er op gericht alsnog een controlerend accountant te vinden, waarna de assets kunnen worden ingebracht." (dat ging niet door)

Bard before and after Gemini

Before Gemini:

Denk aan een winkel die twee producten verkoopt. De aankoopprijs van een duurzaam product is € 2,- en de verkoopprijs € 4,-. Als de winkel ook dezelfde hoeveelheid van een massaproduct verkoopt dat het voor $ 1 inkoopt, wat moet de verkoopprijs dan zijn om in dezelfde winstmarge te resulteren?

De winstmarge van het duurzame product is 4 - 2 = € 2,-. Dit is een winstmarge van 2 / 2 * 100 = 100%.

Om dezelfde winstmarge te realiseren op het massaproduct, moet de verkoopprijs 1 + 1 * 100 / 100 = $ 2,- zijn.

De antwoord is dus $ 2,-.

Een andere manier om dit te berekenen is door de volgende formule te gebruiken:

Winstmarge = (Verkoopprijs - Inkoopprijs) / Inkoopprijs

In dit geval is de winstmarge van het massaproduct:

Winstmarge = (Verkoopprijs - 1) / 1

Omdat de winstmarge hetzelfde moet zijn als voor het duurzame product, kunnen we de volgende vergelijking opstellen:

(Verkoopprijs - 1) / 1 = 2 / 2

Oplossen voor Verkoopprijs geeft:

Verkoopprijs = 1 + 1 * 2 / 2

Verkoopprijs = 1 + 1

Verkoopprijs = 2

Dus de antwoord is nog steeds $ 2,-.

After Gemini update 7 December 2023

Denk aan een winkel die twee producten verkoopt. De aankoopprijs van een duurzaam product is € 2,- en de verkoopprijs € 4,-. Als de winkel ook dezelfde hoeveelheid van een massaproduct verkoopt dat het voor $ 1 inkoopt, wat moet de verkoopprijs dan zijn om in dezelfde winstmarge te resulteren?

De winstmarge van het duurzame product is 4 - 2 = 2 euro.

De winstmarge van het massaproduct moet dus ook 2 euro zijn.

De verkoopprijs van het massaproduct is dan 1 + 2 = 3 euro.

Antwoord: De verkoopprijs van het massaproduct moet $ 3 zijn.

Wednesday, December 06, 2023

Alibaba share Price and Earnings per Share

Alibaba Graham Defensive Analysis:

SECTOR: [PASS][FAIL] Alibaba is neither dependant on one niche technology nor a financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Alibaba's sales of $130 000 million, based on 2022 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Alibaba's current ratio $78 000m/€53 000m of 1.5 just fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for Alibaba's is $34 000 million, while the net current assets are $38 000 million. Alibaba fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Alibaba's EPS growth over that period of 2,300% easily passes the EPS growth test.

EARNINGS YIELD: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Alibaba's E/P of 11% (using this years's number) passes this test.

Peter Lynch "VALUE": [PASS]

Dividend: Alibaba now pays a $1 dividend: 1,4%

Conclusion: January 2022 at 130 USD: Alibaba is hoping to grow revenue by more than 20% this year and expand to 2 billion customers. Seems like a buy for a growth investors and almost for a Graham Defensive Investor. A buy for an intelligent investor. There is China country risk.

December 2023: Lockdowns ended after last October in China when the share price dipped to around $60. The country is opening up (slowly). Disclaimer: I own Alibaba shares through ValueMachinesFund

NSI NV "Graham" Value 1x book and 15x recurring EPS and stock Price

Last year I wrote:

Dividend: €2,16/ €32 = 7%

Conclusion August 2022: Seems like a buy here.

Since then the stock price has declined 43% to EUR 18,4 and the dividend has been cut 30% to roughly EUR 1,5 from EUR 2,16

----

Benjamin Graham Analysis

SECTOR: [PASS]  NSI  is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.

SALES: [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. NSI's sales of €71 million, based on 2022 sales, fails this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL]  The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. NSI's current ratio €2.8m/€103m of 0.03 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL]  For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for NSI is €289 million, while the net current assets are €-100 million. NSI fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. NSI made a loss in 2016 and therefore fails this test.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. NSI's E/P of 11% (using the current adjusted Earnings of EUR 2,1) just fails this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. NSI has a Graham number of √( 15 x €2,1 EPS x €38 Book Value) = +/- €34

Note: With real estate I use 1 x Book Value instead of 1,5 x Book Value.

Dividend: €1,5/ €18,4 = 8%

Conclusion December 2023: I was too optimistic last year. Today at a much lower price of EUR 18,4, it seems to be more attractive than last year.