Thursday, November 29, 2018

TKH Group intrinsic value based on Benjamin Graham number

SECTOR: [PASS] TKH formerly Twentse Kabelfabriek Holding is in industry. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published. 

[PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. TKH's sales of  € 1 484 million based on 2017 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO:   [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. TKH's current ratio 723m/442m of 1,6 fails this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [PASS] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). The long-term debt for TKH is 343 million, while the net current assets are  423 million. TKH passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. TKH's earnings have increased 100% since 2006.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature.TKH's  E/P of 5%  (using the average of the last 3 years Earnings) is a bit too low for this test.

Graham Number value: 
[FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. TKH has a Graham number of √ (15 x  2,2 EPS x 1,5 x  14 Book Value) =   € 26,50

Dividend: TKH 1.2/ 45 =3%

Conclusiom Sales and profits have been increasing, but so have debts... not a stock for the Graham Defensive Investor at a price above EUR 35

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