Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Aalberts intrinsic Value and stock Price based on Benjamin Graham Defensive analysis

Price (blue) is what you pay, increasing Value (red) is what you get.

Note: The graph does not include reinvested dividends. The arrow shows January 2008.
Aalberts Graham Defensive Analysis:
SECTOR: [PASS] Aalberts is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 
SALES: [PASS]  The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Aalberts' sales of €2,758 million, based on 2018 sales, pass this test.
CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Aalberts' current ratio €1 210m/€1 001m of 1.2 fails the test.
LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for Aalberts is €741 million, while the net current assets are €209 million. Aalberts fails this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Aalberts' EPS growth over that period of 155% passes the EPS growth test.
EARNINGS YIELD: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Aalberts's E/P of 7% (using the average of last 3 years) passes this test.

GRAHAM NUMBER VALUE:  [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Aalberts has a Graham number of √(15 x €2,2 EPS x 1,5 x €15,2 Book Value) = €28

Dividend: Aalberts currently pays a dividend of 75 cents. 0,75/34 = 2%

Conclusion May 2018 at 43 Euros: A bit too much debt, price (koers) a bit too high at the moment. Start buying only if near 30 Euros.

Conclusion August 2019 at Eur 34, this could be a good time to buy. 

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