Mkt cap 264,80M P/E ratio 410,67
Sales 2019 EUR 140m ?
EPS = EUR 0,2
Book = EUR 8,3m equity / 20m shares = EUR 0,41 per share
Question: Why did I think there were 11,3m shares outstanding last year??
Price ...... wait for it
= EUR 13,24
Earnings have to increase 500% for this to make sense...
On the other hand the market for Smart grid solutions and Electric Vehicle (EV) is expected to remain strong.
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Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Alfen rough intrinsic value using Graham Number notes
New IPO at EUR 10 per share. Currently, 11,3m shares, share price EUR 12,25 per share. Market Cap: EUR 138m
The company is buying Finnish Elkamo for EUR 4,5m
Book value: Equity EUR 7,1m/11,3m shares = 0,6 EUR Book value per share
Adjusted Earnings Guess for 2018: 0,2 EUR per share. Graham Number (Geometric average of 15x Earnings and 1,5 x Book value = Graham Value EUR 1,68 per share.
The company is growing revenues quickly (plus 32% in the first half of 2018), but seems expensive at the current stock price. The company would have to keep growing at this pace for 3-4 years to justify the current share price. The EV market could grow that quickly, but I don't know how much competition there is.
Current ratio: 30,4m/24,8m = 1,2
Long term debt: 8,6m (including Elkamo?)
Conclusion: Not a stock for the Defensive investor.
The company is buying Finnish Elkamo for EUR 4,5m
Book value: Equity EUR 7,1m/11,3m shares = 0,6 EUR Book value per share
Adjusted Earnings Guess for 2018: 0,2 EUR per share. Graham Number (Geometric average of 15x Earnings and 1,5 x Book value = Graham Value EUR 1,68 per share.
The company is growing revenues quickly (plus 32% in the first half of 2018), but seems expensive at the current stock price. The company would have to keep growing at this pace for 3-4 years to justify the current share price. The EV market could grow that quickly, but I don't know how much competition there is.
Current ratio: 30,4m/24,8m = 1,2
Long term debt: 8,6m (including Elkamo?)
Conclusion: Not a stock for the Defensive investor.
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