Thursday, October 31, 2019

Apple's Q1 2020 Earnings per Share (EPS) based on guidance

Q4 headline and outlook/guidance: 
"EPS Sets New Fourth Quarter Record of $3.03"
........ 
Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2020 first quarter:
  • revenue between $85.5 billion and $89.5 billion
  • gross margin between 37.5 percent and 38.5 percent
  • operating expenses between $9.6 billion and $9.8 billion
  • other income/(expense) of $200 million
  • tax rate of approximately 16.5 percent"


What I wonder is why they don't explicitly work out the Earnings per Share guidance for Q1. 

The math is simple (if I am not mistaken):

High estimate:
Say revenue $89,5b x Gross Margin 38,5% = Gross Profit Dollars of $34,46b
Minus Operating Expenses of $9,6b = $24,86b
Plus Other Income $0,2b = $25,06b
Minus 16,5% tax = $20,92b Earnings 
Divided by shares outstanding of 4,4b = $4,75 Earnings per Share compared to Q4 EPS $4,18 that is an increase of 14% 

Low estimate:
Say revenue $85,5b x Gross Margin 37,5% = Gross Profit Dollars of $32,06b
Minus Operating Expenses of $9,8b = $22,26b
Plus Other Income $0,2b = $22,46b
Minus 16,5% tax = $18,76b Earnings 
Divided by shares outstanding of 4,4b = $4,26 Earnings per Share compared to Q4 EPS $4,18 that is an increase of 2% 

In other words, the guidance is for record Q1 Earnings per Share in 2020.

(Note that as a shareholder you own less cash per share than a year ago, because Apple is using its cash reserves to buy back shares and thus decrease the number of shares which in turn leads to the increase in Earnings per Share.)

Peter Lynch chart (log scale)




1 comment:

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