Thursday, January 16, 2020

Euronext 2019 Benjamin Graham Value and Stock Price

Conclusion a little over a year ago in October 2018: "Euronext is doing well. It has a low book value compared to earnings so the Graham Number is probably lower than the intrinsic value. Could be a buy around EUR 50 (less than 15x Earnings). "

After that, the price dipped to EUR 48,25 in December 2018 and is now EUR 77 a gain of 60%. (I should note that a lot of stocks were relatively cheap in December 2018 compared to today.)

SECTOR: [PASS] Euronext  runs stock exchanges. It went public in 2013-14.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Euronext's sales of €615 million, based on 2018 sales, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO:  [PASS]  The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Euronext's current ratio €510m/€272m of 1,9 sort of passes this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Euronext has increased to €1 221 million, while the net current assets are  €238 million. Euronext passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAILCompanies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Euronext's earnings are growing, but the long-term results are difficult to determine because of its corporate history and recent IPO. 

Earnings Yield:  [FAIL]  The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Euronext's E/P of 5% (using this year's estimated Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Euronext has a Graham number of (15 x €3 EPS x 1,5 x €12 Book Value) = roughly €31

Dividend: €1.8?/€77 = 2%

The conclusion at the end of 2019: Seems to be a great company, expanding through acquisitions. Stock is not extremely expensive or cheap.

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