Wednesday, July 01, 2020

Relx Peter Lynch log chart compared to Benjamin Graham Defensive value chart

Relx formerly Reed Elsevier intrinsic

Stock prices were high around the turn of the century. Warren Buffett predicted low single digit return for the market for the period from 2000 to 2017. Here in this chart you can see that Relx is a good example of why that was the case. The EPS (Earnings per Share) have been increasing since 2002 but the price was so high in 2002 that the stock price hadn't really moved before 2017 (you did get dividends which are not included here, but then again neither are taxes or inflation.)

Note: This is a logarithmic chart the current price of EUR 20,55 is much closer to the 10 line than the 10 is to 1. 

Here is a chart of the same prices but compared to the Graham value which takes book value into account. Relx has a low book value, so the stock seems more expensive.

Old Conclusion and analysis 2017 : The RELX Group earns a lot on its book value (it has a high return on equity), but it is not a stock for the Defensive investor, especially at the current price of over 17 Euro

SECTOR: [PASS]  RELX Group is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. RELX Group's sales of €7 355 million, based on 2019 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. RELX Group's current ratio €2 289m/€5 000m of 0.5 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL]  For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for RELX Group is €7 385 million, while the net current assets are - €2 711 million. RELX Group fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. RELX Group's profits have been flat over the past 10 years and fails this test.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. RELX Group's E/P of 8% (using the last 3 years Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. RELX Group has a Graham number of (15 x €1,4 EPS x €1,27 Book Value) = €6 

Dividend: €0,45/€17,5 = 3%

Conclusion 2018: Too difficult pile.

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