Thursday, July 09, 2020

SnowWorld stock price and intrinsic business value

The stock price is significantly higher than the Offer 2 years ago: 

Coronacrisis: The first quarter was good and the SnowWorld slopes are open again, but not at 100%

SECTOR: [PASS]  SnowWorld is in retail and foodservice and neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. SnowWorld's sales of €36 million, based on 2019 sales, fails this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. SnowWorld's current ratio €6,2m/ €9,9 of 0.6 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for SnowWorld is €80 million, while the net current assets are - €4 million. SnowWorld fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS]  Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. SnowWorld EPS grew by 100% over the past 8 years and passes this test.

Earnings Yield:  [PASS] [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. SnowWorld's E/P of  6,6% (using the current Earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. SnowWorld has a Graham number of (15 x €0,9 EPS x 1,5 x €8 Book Value) = €12,8

Dividend: 0 SnowWorld is lending and investing for growth, it makes sense not to pay out a dividend at the moment.

Conclusion: The shares seem fairly priced, but there is too much debt for a Graham Defensive Investor. 

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