Friday, October 02, 2020

Royal Dutch Shell trading at half the market cap of Zoom video... Seems cheap.

Royal Dutch Shell's share price is at the lowest price in decades. The current market cap of less than EUR 100b is roughly half that of ZOOM video. 

SECTOR: [PASS]  RDS.A is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. RDS.A's sales of $345,000 million, based on 2019 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. RDS.A's current ratio $93,000m/$80,000mof 1.2 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for RDS.A is $135,000 million, while the net current assets are $13,000 millionRDS.A fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. RDS.A's EPS decline over that period fails the EPS growth test. The company will probable lose money over 2020.

EARNINGS YIELD:  [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. RDS.A's E/P of 10% (using the average of the last 3 years earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. RDS.A has a Graham number of (15 x €1,14 EPS x 1,5 x €17 Book Value) = €21 and passes this test.

Dividend: was 1,88/10 = 18% 

In 2019 I wrote "but the oil and gas prices have to not decrease too much for Shell to be able to keep paying this dividend." Now oil dipped to $20 during the coronapanic and now trades at only $40 per barrel. 

Dividend 2020: EUR 0,64/10 = 6%

Conclusion October 2nd 2020: Seems like a buy today. Longterm solar plus batteries is getting cheaper than oil. 

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