Wednesday, September 01, 2021

Alfen Benjamin Graham Defensive notes

The business is doing very well. The stock even better. The graph above is in a linear scale, next year I will add a log scale. They have an international runway for growth. 
Using figures for 2021. Sales EUR 250m Balance sheet solid. Shares outstanding increased to 22m. Not a bad idea to issue shares at this price. Price per share EUR 93, book value EUR 4,-. EPS 1 per share and increasing. P/E 100 

Alfen notes september 2019: Not for the Graham Defensive Investor

Mkt cap264,80M
P/E ratio410,67

Sales 2019 EUR 140m ? 

EPS = EUR 0,2
Book = EUR 8,3m equity / 20m shares = EUR 0,41 per share

Question: Why did I think there were 11,3m shares outstanding last year??

Price ...... wait for it

= EUR 13,24 

Earnings have to increase 500% for this to make sense... 

On the other hand the market for Smart grid solutions and Electric Vehicle (EV) is expected to remain strong.

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Alfen rough intrinsic value using Graham Number notes

New IPO at EUR 10 per share. Currently, 11,3m shares, share price EUR 12,25 per share. Market Cap: EUR 138m
The company is buying Finnish Elkamo for EUR 4,5m

Book value: Equity EUR 7,1m/11,3m shares = 0,6 EUR Book value per share

Adjusted Earnings Guess for 2018: 0,2 EUR per share. Graham Number (Geometric average of 15x Earnings and 1,5 x Book value = Graham Value EUR 1,68 per share.

The company is growing revenues quickly (plus 32% in the first half of 2018), but seems expensive at the current stock price. The company would have to keep growing at this pace for 3-4 years to justify the current share price.  The EV market could grow that quickly, but I don't know how much competition there is.

Current ratio: 30,4m/24,8m = 1,2
Long term debt: 8,6m (including Elkamo?)

Conclusion: Not a stock for the Defensive investor.

No comments: