Tuesday, April 05, 2022

Flow Traders share price and value after an incredible two years


On the 7th of February 2020, 20 days before the first Covid19 infected person in The Netherlands was discovered. I wrote: "Flow Traders seems to be creating value and is a better buy near €19 than at €50, but is not a stock for the Defensive Investor. Results vary with volatility which was low in 2019, but could remain low in 2020. It seems to be a bit of a gamble?" 

This was the graph I made.  "Assumption: EPS which was €3,84 in 2018 and €1,15 in 2019 will be €2 in 2020. "

After that the corona panic broke out and shares were very volatile. Earnings per Share in 2020 were not EUR 2 but 5x higher: EUR 10,3 per share. This enabled Flow Traders to pay out a one-time dividend of EUR 6,50. 

Today:

SECTOR: [???] Flow Traders provides liquidity for ETP Exchange Traded Products. It went public in 2015 at a price of around €35, the price climbed to €50 and now has dropped below the IPO level. I  am not an expert and don't know how much of an "arms race' in technology is involved.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Flow Traders' sales (Net Trading Income similar to Gross Profit Dollars?) of €476 million in 2021 passed this test. 

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS]  Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Flow Trader's long-term results are difficult to determine because of its corporate history and recent IPO. EPS has increased by over 300%. 

Earnings Yield:  [PASS]  The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Flow Trader's E/P of 8,3% (using 2021 Earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Flow Trader's has a Graham number of (15 x €4,9 EPS x 1,5 x €10,3 Book Value) = €33  (Earnings are inflated by great 2020 results.) 

Note: Book value is less relevant for an information company like Flow Traders than a factory.

Dividend: €1.35/€31,5 = 4,2%  (Flow Trader's dividend varies. It pays out 50% of profit as a dividend.)

Conclusion: Flow Traders has been a great investment since February 2020 including a EUR 6,50 super dividend. Too difficult pile because I don't understand the business (yet). 

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