Monday, July 25, 2022

Almunda (formerly Novisource) rough Graham Defensive analysis.


Notes July 2023 : Stock price EUR 1,30 , boeked a loss / breakeven in 2022. Share count increased from 12 to 18 million, bought a majority stake in www.pidz.nl Book "value" (not tangible) of EUR 12m = EUR 0,66 book value per share.  




Going through Dutch listed companies 1 by 1 you come across the name Peter Paul de Vries quite a lot. Here an article about Novisource now Almunda:


SECTOR: [PASS] Almunda is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES[FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Almunda's sales of €14 million, based on 2021 sales, fails this test, and sales seem to be stabilizing.

CURRENT RATIO:
 [PASS]  Novisource Current assets  €9m divided by short-term debt €3m = 3 which easily passes Graham's limit of 2. 

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS
[PASS] Long-term debt €2,5m is lower than Net Current Assets €6m.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH[FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. 
Novisource has lost money in 2016.

Earnings Yield: [PASS]  Graham likes to see 7% or higher. The Earnings Yield over 3 years is roughly 7%.

Graham Number value: [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Novisource has a Graham number of (15 x €0,8 EPS x €0,44 Book Value) = €0,9

Dividend: € 0,05 is 4%. 

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