Monday, October 24, 2022

SBM Offshore stock price and Graham Value


A lot has happened since 2020 when I had a number of questions about SBM Offshore: http://sinaas.blogspot.com/2020/07/sbm-offshore-stock-price-and-estimated.html

The stock price hasn't changed much since then, but now it seems investors can buy with a margin of safety (also considering the well-filled order book. 

SECTOR: [PASS]  SBM is neither a technology? nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. SBM's sales of €3 747 million, based on 2021 sales, pass this test. Sales have increased considerably lately.

CURRENT RATIO: [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. SBM's current ratio $6 416m/$3 198m of 2 passes the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt is €6 476 million, while the net current assets are €3 218 million. SBM fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. SBM's EPS were negative in 2011, 2012 and 2017, therefore, SBM fails this test.

Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. SBM's E/P of 14% (using a mix of the average of 3 years and last year's Earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. SBM has a Graham number of (15 x €2,2 EPS x 1,5 x €13 Book Value) = €25

Dividend= €1/€13,5 = 7,4%

Conclusion: Seems like a buy with a margin of safety at EUR 13,50 today.

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