Thursday, February 09, 2023

Flow Traders $FLOW Mr. Market Price and Graham Value


After the corona panic broke out in 2020  shares were very volatile. Flow Traders's Earnings per Share in 2020 were not EUR 2 but 5x higher: EUR 10,3 per share. This enabled Flow Traders to pay out a one-time dividend of EUR 6,50. 

Today:

SECTOR: [???] Flow Traders provides liquidity for ETP Exchange Traded Products and more. It went public in 2015 at a price of around €35, the price climbed to €50 and now has dropped below the IPO level. I  am not an expert and don't know how much of an "arms race' in technology is involved.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Flow Traders' sales (Net Trading Income similar to Gross Profit Dollars?) of €461 million in 2022 passed this test. 

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS]  Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Flow Trader's long-term 10 year EPS has increased by over 170%. 

Earnings Yield:  [PASS]  The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Flow Trader's E/P of 12% (using 2022 Earnings) easily passes this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Flow Trader's has a Graham number of (15 x €4 EPS x 1,5 x €33 Book Value) = €34  (Earnings are slightly inflated by great 2020 results.) 

Note: Book value is less relevant for an information company like Flow Traders than a factory especially as it is currently buying back shares for more than book value. 

Dividend: €1.5/€25 = 6%  (Flow Trader's dividend varies. It pays out 50% of profit as a dividend.)

Conclusion: Flow Traders has been a great investment since February 2020 including a EUR 6,50 super dividend. Seems like a buy although I don't understand the business. 

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