SECTOR: [PASS] CTP is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.
SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. CTP's sales of €599 million, based on 2022 sales, pass this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. CTP just went public two years ago but has a strong record of profitable growth before that.
Earnings Yield: [FAIL] [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. CTP's E/P of 6,4% (using the last year's Earnings from rent) just fails this test.
Graham Number value: [PASS]The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. CTP has a Graham number of √(15 x €0,72 EPS x €14,41 Book Value) = €12,81 (For real estate I use 1 x book instead of the 1,5 x book Benjamin Graham used for industrial companies.)
Dividend: €0,45/€11,94 = 4%
Conclusion July 2023: Seems like a good investment for the Graham Defensive investor at EUR 11,95
Notes:
Rent per square meter per month? has increased from EUR 4,8 to EUR 5,3
The business now has 3 units: Operator, developer, energy (solar on roofs)
It is the largest GLA (gross leased assets? ) in Europe. Market cap EUR 5b Enterprise Value 11b
Tenant driven expansion 1 000 clients many in "business smart" Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) German business DIR that was taken over is going well. Rent was EUR 59m now 66m (per Q?)
10%-11% Yield on Cost = construction cost EUR 550 / sqm in 2022 now EUR 500/sqm , yield 5,31 / month x 12 = 64/500 = 12% (is that the math?)
QUESTIONS:
How is Yield on Cost calculated? What is the relevance. What is ROE at CTP?
They wrote a CEE paper?
Increasing share count
2021 336m shares
2022 383m
2023 434m shares? whilst paying dividend?
Interest cost was 1,6%, new loans (from banks) @4,6% makes financing more expensive. Bank loans are cheaper for CTP than bonds at the moment.
Sales and profits in 2030 should be "easy" to calculate: Goal is doubling of gross leasable area (GLA) from 10,9m sqm now to 20m (end of the decade).
In-house construction with 700 employees in total?
Tuesday, February 15, 2022
Rough notes on CTP Central Trade Park
https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Trade_Park
2014:
From concept to completion, permitting, design etc. 9 months to build. Relationship with local governments. Buying neighboring land plots "landbank"
Different customer modules CTBox, CTOffice, etc. Plug and play.
2 m sq. m2 (Gross Lettable Land? GLA) in 2014
8-10% growth per year
2022 10m m2 GLA landbank 16,3m m2
Yield on Cost 11% Green bond EUR 1b at 1,9%
EPS EPRA EUR 0,5 2021
NAV EUR 9,- per share
Stock price EUR 16, -
Bought Deutsche Industrie REIT on stock market for EUR 800m well under replacement cost? (why was the share price so low?) accretive for earnings right away.
Results on March 9th.
| EPRA net tangible assets per share | 2021 €12.06 | 2020 €8.32 | 45% |
Conclusion: Seems like an intelligent founder led organisation that understands their business.
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