Wednesday, October 18, 2023

DSM-Firmenich stock price and estimated Graham Value


Dutch State Mines (DSM) merged with Swiss Firmenich in spring 2022. If I understand correctly shareholders of DSM got 1:1 shares in the new company. Since then the market price has gone down by half. 

In 2023 it booked a profit of EUR 10 per share, selling the Engineering Materials business to Advent International and LANXESS. 

Benjamin Graham Analysis of DSM-(Firmenich)

SECTOR: [PASS] DSM is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. DSM's sales of €12 000 million, based on 2023 sales, pass this test. Sales have been flat or falling.

CURRENT RATIO: [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. DSM's current ratio €10 271m/€5 471m of 2.1 passes this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [PASS]  [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for DSM is €7 149 million, while the net current assets are $5 471 million. DSM just fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. DSM's EPS growth of 100% passes this test.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. DSM's E/P of 4% (using last years earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. DSM has a Graham number of (15 x € 3,3 EPS x 1,5 x €80 ? Book Value) = €78 and is equal to the share price.

Dividend: DSM-Firmenich paid a dividend of 1,6/78 = 2%

Conclusion 2021: Price at EUR 166 seems high. 

Conclusion 2023: The current price per share for the larger company is EUR 78 (down 53%) and seems more reasonable. I am not sure about the book value per share. 



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