Friday, October 27, 2023

Fagron stock Price and estimated Graham Value


Here is an analysis of Fagron using the methodology of Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing as explained by John Reese and Jack Forehand in The Guru Investor.

I don't know much about the company except that it is literally a compounder (it mixes drugs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compounding ) In investing a compounder is a business where profits are reinvested to grow the company which is especially interesting if the company earns high Returns On Capital Employed. 

SECTOR: [PASS] FAGRON is in the pharmaceutical sector, which this methodology accepts. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than $340 million. FAGRON's 2022 sales of EUR 695 million passes this test. Sales have been increasing.


CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. The current assets are €318 million and current liabilities are €171 million. FAGRON's current ratio of 1.9 just fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for FAGRON is €389 million, while the net current assets are €147 million. FAGRON fails this test. 

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. FAGRON 's earnings have grown 100% over the past ten years. 

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] [PASS] The Earnings/Price (E/P) ratio, based on the lower of the current E/P or the E/P using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "moderate", which this methodology states is greater than 7%. Stocks with high E/Ps are more defensive by nature. FAGRON's E/P at the moment is 6,2% and just fails this test.

GRAHAM NUMBER VALUE:  [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. FAGRON has a Graham number of √(15 x € 1 EPS x 1,5 x € 5,3 Book Value) = €11

Dividend: EUR 0,25/16,4 = 1,5%

Conclusion: FAGRON's business has improved. The stock seems to be fairly priced today. 

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