Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Koninklijke KPN N.V. = Koninklijke Koninklijke PTT Nederland N.V.?


November 7th 2023 

KPN announces Connect, Activate & Grow strategy

 Delivered sustainable Group service revenue growth, achieved key ambition of Accelerate to Grow strategy

  • Staying frontrunner in ESG: fully embedded in Connect, Activate & Grow strategy
  • Targeting continued service revenue growth, supported by leading converged portfolios in B2C and B2B
  • Modernizing operating model to deliver quality improvements and indirect cost savings
  • Completing fiber roll out and delivering ~80% fiber footprint end-2026, Capex remains at ~€ 1.2bn annually until 2026 
  • Capex coming down below € 1.0bn as of 2027 driven by finalization of fiber project
  • Leading to 3-3-7 financial ambitions: ~3% service revenues CAGR, ~3% EBITDA CAGR and ~7% FCF CAGR until 2027
  • Continuing policy of returning full Free Cash Flow to shareholders, ~€ 3.8bn cumulative distributions by 2027

 Revenues have been declining... 

Benjamin Graham analysis 

SECTOR: [PASS]  KPN is neither a technology nor a financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES[PASS]  The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. KPN's sales of €5 374 million, based on 2022 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO:
 [FAIL]  Current assets  €1 392 divided by short-term debt €1 682 = 0.8 which is under Graham's limit of 2. 

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS
[FAIL] Long term debt is €6 629 and Net Current Assets are minus €290.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH[FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for KPN have decreased since 2003 and therefore the company fails this criterion. 


Earnings Yield: [FAIL] Graham likes to see 7% or higher. 5,6% based on 2022 earnings fails this test. 

Graham Number value: [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. KPN has a Graham number of (15 x €0,2 EPS x €0,75 Book Value) = €1,9

Dividend: € 0,14/€3,2 = 3,6%  

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