Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Neuralink competitor ONWARD MEDICAL not a Graham Defensive stock


A great 2 minute video describes what Onward Medical is trying to do: 


The price just shot up from EUR 2 to EUR 6. I believe this is the reason: 

09 FEB 24
KBC Securities Initiates Research Coverage of ONWARD® Medical with a Buy Rating and Target Price of EUR 10.00 Per Share
EINDHOVEN, the Netherlands — February 9, 2024 — ONWARD Medical N.V. (Euronext: ONWD), the medical technology company creating innovative therapies to restore movement, function, and independence in people with spinal cord injury (SCI), today announced that KBC Securities, part of the KBC Group -- a leading Belgian integrated bank-insurance group -- has initiated research coverage of ONWARD Medical with a Buy rating and Target Price of EUR 10.00 per share.



SECTOR: [FAIL] ONWARD is a technology therefore this methodology is not applicable. 

SALES:  [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. ONWARD  sales of €2 million ?, based on 2022 sales, fail this test.

CURRENT RATIO:  [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. ONWARD's current ratio €47m/€8m of 5.9 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [PASS] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. ONWARD has a long-term debt of €17m, the net current assets are €39 millionONWARD passes this test. NOTE: the company is burning through cash so time left before cashflow breakeven has to be calculated 

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. ONWARD is a bleeder. 

EARNINGS YIELD: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. ONWARD's E/P of 0% (using this year's estimated earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. ONWARD has a Graham number of ZERO but if you torture the figures you get a few dimes (15 x €0,01 EPS x 1,5 x €1,14 Book Value) = €0,5 and fails this test.

DIVIDEND:  0%  and shares are being sold: 5,9 at the IPO to 30,3 million now. Money is flowing from investors to the company, not the other way around. 

CONCLUSION: Seems to be a great ESG investment. Could be better and make more impact to buy shares of ONWARD Medical than to donate money to a hospital. 

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