Heineken is a company that is a money-making machine. A strong profitable brand with great distribution. The company booked a loss in the first half of 2024, but did it lose money?
There are two shares: Heineken ticker HEIA.AS €68.42 and Heinken Holding ticker HEIO.AS €57.40
The amount of dividend per share seems to be the same for both, so it would be logical to buy the cheaper holding shares?
(beia) Profit is Before Exceptional Items and Amortisation of acquisition-related intangible assets.
Net profit (beia) increased by 4.4% organically, lower than operating profit (beia) due to higher net financing costs, mainly in Nigeria, and tax expenses, mainly related to Brazil.
As required by IFRS standards (IAS 28 and IAS 36), HEINEKEN has recorded a non-cash impairment related to its investment in CR Beer of €874 million. At the time of acquisition, the CR Beer share price was HKD 35 and after a rally lasting until mid-2023, it declined to HKD 26.25 as of 30 June 2024, possibly reflecting concerns on the macroeconomic environment in China and its impact on consumer demand. The share price trajectory has deviated from the strong operational results of CR Beer. In the period 2019 to 2023, CR Beer's turnover grew by 17% and net profit by 293% as reported under the Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards per calendar year. The strong operational performance was supported by the growth of the premium portfolio, led by Heineken®, up in volume 4x during that four-year period. The contribution of royalties from CR Beer and CR Beer's share of profits to HEINEKEN for the first six months of 2024 continued to increase, reaching more than 7% of the diluted EPS (beia).
Coronapanic lockdowns (2020) were not good for Heineken's business. Note that Benjamin Graham value places an emphasis on book value which is less important for Heineken than earnings and beer flow.
SECTOR: [PASS] HEINEKEN is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.
SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. HEINEKEN's sales have increased to €31 000 million, and based on 2023 sales, pass this test.
CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. HEINEKEN's current ratio €11 400m/€14 825m of 0.8 fails the test.
LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for HEINEKEN is €17 539 million, while the net current assets are €-3 425 million. HEINEKEN fails this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. HEINEKEN's EPS growth over that period of 50% passes the EPS growth test.
Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. HEINEKEN's E/P of 7% (using last year's earnings) passes this test.
SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. HEINEKEN's sales have increased to €31 000 million, and based on 2023 sales, pass this test.
CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. HEINEKEN's current ratio €11 400m/€14 825m of 0.8 fails the test.
LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for HEINEKEN is €17 539 million, while the net current assets are €-3 425 million. HEINEKEN fails this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. HEINEKEN's EPS growth over that period of 50% passes the EPS growth test.
Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. HEINEKEN's E/P of 7% (using last year's earnings) passes this test.
Graham Number value: [FAIL] [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. HEINEKEN has a Graham number of √(15 x €4.2 EPS x 1,5 x €35 Book Value) = €56 and just fails this test.
Dividend: 1,73 EUR / 57,50 EUR = 3%
Conclusion November 2023: Heineken seems like a wonderful company, for a fair price of EUR 87. December 2024 at EUR 57,50 for Heineken Holding seems like a great price;.Although reported Earnings per share have stagnated.
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