Graham Defensive Analysis based on Chapter 14 of The Intelligent Investor
SCTOR: [PASS] AHOLD is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.
SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. AHOLD's sales of €90 000 million, based on 2024 sales, pass this test.
CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. AHOLD's current ratio €14 526m/€17 396m of 0,8 fails the test.
LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for AHOLD is €18 992, while the net current assets are minus €2 870 million. AHOLD fails this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. AHOLD's EPS growth of 80% over that period passes the EPS growth test.
Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. AHOLD's E/P of 5% (using last years earnings) passes this test.
Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. AHOLD has a Graham number of √(15 x €2,0 EPS x 1,5 x €15,5 Book Value) = €26,5-
Dividend: 1,17 / 38 = 3% The company is also buying back shares. So you could argue current Return of Capital is around 5% per year.
Conclusion: July 2024 @ EUR 28,2 results in the USA are disappointing. The price still seems reasonable.
Conclusion: May 2025: With a lower dollar, USA profits will be lower in Euros. The price @ EUR 38 seems high now considering lack of significant growth in revenue.
No comments:
Post a Comment