Saturday, October 19, 2019

Ordina simple Benjamin Graham Defensive Intrinsic Value cq. Valuation

The Ordina share price is the same as a year ago,  but business (and thus the intrinsic value) has improved. The share price now seems more attractive than a year ago.

SECTOR: [PASS]  Ordina is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES:  [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Ordina's sales of €352 million, based on 2017 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Ordina's current ratio €81m/€83m of 1.0 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. Ordina had no long-term debt, but due to IFRS 16 rules now posts lease obligations as a debt of €27m, the net current assets are minus €2 millionOrdina fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL]  Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Ordina made a loss in 2013 and 2015.

EARNINGS YIELD:  [PASS]  The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Ordina's E/P of 7% (using this year's estimated earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value:  [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Ordina has a Graham number of (15 x €0,09 EPS x 1,5 x €1,7 Book Value) = €1,8 and just passes this test.

Dividend €0,05/€1,66 = 3%

Conclusion: The stock seems fairly priced.

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