Wednesday, March 25, 2020

New York State mortality curve COVID 19 effect (very rough guesstimate)

Update April 6th Guesstimate for New York was much too optimistic: 
Red is reality, blue was my guesstimate on March 25th... 


Growth % decreasing by 1% a day.
Deaths per DayCumulative CVDecliningExtra deaths
Daily deaths New York State on average
TotalGrowth %per day
4303
4347133%4
4351271%5
4341633%4
45238138%22
4384621%8
4425826%12
4487631%18
511157107%81
54427173%114
4442855%14
3/26/202050135625%71
3/27/202051644224%86
3/28/202053254323%102
3/29/202055066322%120
3/30/202056980221%139
3/31/202059096320%160
4/1/2020613114519%183
4/2/2020636135218%206
4/3/2020660158117%230
4/4/2020683183416%253
4/5/2020705210915%275
4/6/2020725240514%295
4/7/2020743271713%313
4/8/2020756304412%326
4/9/2020765337811%335
4/10/2020768371610%338
4/11/202076440519%334
4/12/202075443758%324
4/13/202073646817%306
4/14/202071149626%281
4/15/202067852105%248
4/16/202063854184%208
4/17/202059355813%163
4/18/202054256922%112
4/19/202048757491%57
4/20/202043057490%0
4/21/202043057490

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