New York State mortality curve COVID 19 effect (very rough guesstimate)

Update April 6th Guesstimate for New York was much too optimistic: 

Red is reality, blue was my guesstimate on March 25th... 

Growth % decreasing by 1% a day.		Deaths per Day	Cumulative CV	Declining	Extra deaths
Daily deaths New York State on average		Total		Growth %	per day
430			3
		434	7	133%	4
		435	12	71%	5
		434	16	33%	4
		452	38	138%	22
		438	46	21%	8
		442	58	26%	12
		448	76	31%	18
		511	157	107%	81
		544	271	73%	114
		444	285	5%	14
	3/26/2020	501	356	25%	71
	3/27/2020	516	442	24%	86
	3/28/2020	532	543	23%	102
	3/29/2020	550	663	22%	120
	3/30/2020	569	802	21%	139
	3/31/2020	590	963	20%	160
	4/1/2020	613	1145	19%	183
	4/2/2020	636	1352	18%	206
	4/3/2020	660	1581	17%	230
	4/4/2020	683	1834	16%	253
	4/5/2020	705	2109	15%	275
	4/6/2020	725	2405	14%	295
	4/7/2020	743	2717	13%	313
	4/8/2020	756	3044	12%	326
	4/9/2020	765	3378	11%	335
	4/10/2020	768	3716	10%	338
	4/11/2020	764	4051	9%	334
	4/12/2020	754	4375	8%	324
	4/13/2020	736	4681	7%	306
	4/14/2020	711	4962	6%	281
	4/15/2020	678	5210	5%	248
	4/16/2020	638	5418	4%	208
	4/17/2020	593	5581	3%	163
	4/18/2020	542	5692	2%	112
	4/19/2020	487	5749	1%	57
	4/20/2020	430	5749	0%	0
	4/21/2020	430	5749		0