Monday, April 06, 2020

Pakistan very rough curve forecast

Pakistan is in lockdown. It seems to be trying to contain the virus instead of going for herd immunity like The Netherlands. 


Michael Levitt algorithm after a while the virus burns itself out and the growth rate itself goes down by 1% a day. Note the spread is limited in Pakistan that you could argue it is vulnerable to a "second wave".

Normally around3500
people die every day in Pakistan.
COVID 19 curve forecast (deaths)
DateTotal deaths per dayExtra deaths per dayCumul. deathsGrowth
3/28/2020350221342%Measured
3/29/2020350551838%Measured
3/30/2020350772539%Measured
3/31/202035011264%Measured
4/1/2020350553119%Measured
4/2/2020350443513%Measured
4/3/202035011363%Measured
4/4/2020350554114%Measured
4/5/2020350444510%Measured
4/6/20203514145930%Estimated
4/7/20203517177529%Estimated
4/8/20203521219728%Estimated
4/9/202035262612327%Estimated
4/10/202035323215526%Estimated
4/11/202035393919325%Estimated
4/12/202035464624024%Estimated
4/13/202035555529523%Estimated
4/14/202035656536022%Estimated
4/15/202035757543521%Estimated
4/16/202035878752220%Estimated
4/17/202035999962119%Estimated
4/18/2020361211273318%Estimated
4/19/2020362512585817%Estimated
4/20/20203646146100316%Estimated
4/21/20203661161116415%Estimated
4/22/20203675175133914%Estimated
4/23/20203687187152613%Estimated
4/24/20203698198172412%Estimated
4/25/20203707207193111%Estimated
4/26/20203712212214410%Estimated
4/27/2020371421423589%Estimated
4/28/2020371221225708%Estimated
4/29/2020370620627767%Estimated
4/30/2020369419429706%Estimated
5/1/2020367817831495%Estimated
5/2/2020365715733064%Estimated
5/3/2020363213234383%Estimated
5/4/2020360310335411%Estimated

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