Friday, May 22, 2020

ICT Group NV stock price and Benjamin Graham value

"The Intelligent Investor" Benjamin Graham Defensive analysis:

SECTOR: [PASS] ICT Group is in process management. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published. 

SALES: [FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. 
ICT Group sales of €155 million, based on 2019 sales, fails this test. Sales are increasing.

[FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. ICT Group current ratio €46m/€40m of 1,2 fails this test.

[FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for ICT Group is €30 million, while the net current assets are €6 million. ICT Group fails this test.

[FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. ICT Group's earnings are not higher than 10 years ago, so the company fails this test.

Earnings Yield:  
[FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. ICT Group's E/P of 5% (using last years Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: 
[PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. ICT Group has a Graham number of (15 x €0,6 EPS x 1,5 x €5 Book Value) = €8,2 

Dividend: €0,30/€7,14 = 4% 

Conclusion: Price seems fair. Not a long-term wonderful company to own?

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