Monday, August 17, 2020

TKH Group stock price decreasing whilst intrinsic value has increased?

At the end of 2018 when the stock price was EUR 45 I wrote: Conclusion Sales and profits have been increasing, but so have debts... not a stock for the Graham Defensive Investor at a price above EUR 35

This analysis is based on 2019 figures. Profits have decreased during the 2020 Coronacrisis but should rebound. 

 [FAIL] TKH formerly Twentse Kabelfabriek Holding is in technology. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published. 

[PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. TKH's sales of  € 1 490 million based on 2019 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO:   [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. TKH's current ratio 652m/408m of 1,6 fails this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS:  [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). The long-term debt for TKH is 500 million, while the net current assets are  244 million. TKH fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. TKH's earnings have increased 100% since 2006.

Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature.TKH's  E/P of 7%  (using the average of the last 3 years Earnings) is just high enough for this test.

Graham Number value: 
[FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. TKH has a Graham number of √ (15 x  2,5 EPS x 1,5 x  15,5 Book Value) =   € 30

Dividend: TKH 1.5/ 35 =4%

Conclusion summer 2020: The price is now more attractive than 2 years ago.

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