Thursday, January 20, 2022

Core Labratories stock price versus averaged EPS x 15


Core Labs has a low book value $3,4 compared to Earnings and Share Price $23,6 so a Graham Defensive valuation which was used by Benjamin Graham for industrial companies is not well suited.

Starting after December 17th 2020 the company sold extra shares to raise $60m. The number of shares outstanding increased by about 3 million. The share price was around $25 at the time. The money has been used to pay down long-term debt if I understand correctly. 

Peter Lynch made graphs with 15x Earnings per Share compared to share price in a log scale, the scale above is linear.

SECTOR: [PASS]  Core Labs is a decades-old oilfield services company. 


SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Core Lab's sales of $487 million, based on 2020 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO:  [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Core Lab's current ratio $187m/$93m is 2.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Core Labs is $188 million, while the net current assets are $94 million. Core Labs fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH:  [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Core Lab's earnings have not increased much over the past ten years due to the fall in Earnings recently. Results were negative in 2020.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Core Lab's E/P of 4% (using this year's estimated Earnings) fails this test.

"Peter Lynch" value: [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Core Labs has a Peter Lynch number of 15 x $1 EPS is roughly €15 

Dividend: 1 cent    
"Conclusion 2019: Could be a buy if stock dips under EUR 35."

Conclusion jan 2022: Not a stock for the Graham Defensive Investor

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