Saturday, February 12, 2022

Wereldhave aandeel en aangepast Graham waarde


Wereldhave has taken a huge non-cash impairment on the value of its real estate. This Graham Valuation takes book value ( EPRA NAV) and direct results (EPRA EPS) into account. 

SECTOR: [PASS]  Wereldhave was a store real estate company. Now it is calling itself a company that owns "Full Service Centers with mix of ‘LifeCentral’ experiences as a base for sustainable growth." Stores plus food & beverage plus health care / gyms. 

SALES: The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Wereldhave's revenue of €190 million, based on 2021 sales, fails this test and has been declining.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Wereldhave's current ratio €67m/€226m of 0,3 is too low.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Wereldhave is €715 down from 1 200 million two years ago, while the net current assets are - €159 million. Wereldhave fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Wereldhave's earnings haven't grown over the past 5 years, it has booked huge losses. 

Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Wereldhave's E/P of 10% (using next year's estimated direct Earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Wereldhave has a Graham number of (15 x €1,7 "EPS" x 1 x €22 Book Value) = €21 

Dividend: €1,1/€15,8 = 7%  in the next year's they plan to payout 75% of the direct result  €1,6 * 0,75 = €1,2?


Note: The losses of this year, "impairments" and a sale of real estate in France under book value, are not taken into account in the EPS.

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