Retail Estates share Value guesstimate and share Price

They bought Alexandrium II in Rotterdam Aankoop retail park Alexandrium II Megastores te Rotterdam, kroon op Nederlandse winkelvastgoedportefeuille for 81 million EUR October 2023 

Graham Value usually uses 15 x Earnings and 1,5 x Book. For Real Estate I use 1x book. 

Old notes, partly updated: 

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Retail Estates notes

Interesting Belgian company which has been listed in Amsterdam since 2018. 

Has been growing a retail (out of town) real estate portfolio in a time where it has been fashionable to sell retail real estate because of the rise of E-commerce. (People have bought more online in the Netherlands than in Belgium in the past 2 decades). 

Good overview here: https://www.retailestates.com/en/investors/key-figures

For example how realistic is the share price?

Over-/undervaluation compared to net asset value IFRS

  12/2023   3/2020      3/2019      3/2018      3/2017      3/2016

   - 18%      - 25,07%   31,01%     19,30%    34,51%     45,85%

Sales 2019 EUR 107m, sales 2022 EUR 125m 

Dividend: EUR 4,40 / EUR 62 = 7%

Dividend 2024 EUR 5? / EUR 64.70 = 8%

  

Portfolio EUR 1,65b strong growth during the financial crisis EUR 250m in 2008 and EUR 500m in 2011. Also bought real estate during the 2020 coronacrisis. 

Portfolio % growth faster than per share NAV % growth due to the sales of new shares, whilst paying out a dividend. 

Conclusion 2018 ( I wrote the name of the company incorrectly) was seemed expensive, but the share price and NAV have done much better than Wereldhave: https://sinaas.blogspot.com/2018/11/real-estates-share-price-and-intrinsic.html 

Retail Estates might book a loss in 2020 due to impairments linked to the coronacrisis?