Warren Buffett said "Be fearful, when others are greedy." Sir John Templeton calculated how "fearful" you should be.

Sir John Templeton PROGRAM FOR DECEMBER 2023 (not "market timing" see note* below) 

On December 16th, 2022 one year ago the MSCI World index https://www.msci.com/world Level link had fallen to 2637 leading to an increase in equity % (www.valuemachinesfund.nl ) from 35% to 60%.


Today, December 14th 2023 the MSCII World Index has increased in PRICE to 3102. An increase of 3102/2637 = 18%: which is more than the underlying Value increase which is reflected in the long-term average Price increase of around 8% since 1987.

 
The program for 2023 included an increase in the normal zone compared to 2021 of 10% (instead of 7%) because of inflation and an expected increase in the value of companies.

Based on this table you would now be in the top 60% zone (3102 is between 2823 and 3107) you might consider (depending on your alternatives and plans) to lower your equity exposure to 55%. 

Program for next year December 2024 (an increase of 8% above the 2023 plan): 

For Europe long-term in Euros and with expenses, a fund could be? https://www.fidelity.nl/fondsen/factsheet/IE00BYX5NX33/tab-overview  "Fidelity MSCI World Index Fund P-ACC-EUR" 

 Note* not "market timing"  

Market timing is making short-term predictions of what you think the market will do in the next hour, week, month or year. An example is UBS bank March 8th 2023 which wrote "Markets Timing is everything... . In a soft landing we think equities could rise by about 10% by year-end. But in a hard landing, stocks probably have 20% downside." (Since then the MSCI has increased 17% ...) 

What is market timing? : Market timing is the practice of anticipating market lows and market highs to buy and sell (or sell short) stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or other assets at the most favorable prices. Simply put, it’s about trying to pinpoint price tops and bottoms to optimize your market entries and exits. ... For some of these approaches, you’ll need to have a good grasp of technical analysis in addition to fundamental analysis. So, if all you’ve done is analyze company financials and economic reports, you’ll have to learn how to read the charts as well. .. Trend following is a technical trading strategy that involves buying an asset when it’s in a long-term uptrend and selling it (or selling it short) when it’s in a long-term downtrend. The goal is to profit from the continuation of a trend. 

The Templeton program is not a forecast of short-term movements, it is a reaction after the fact which is influenced by how large a swing that already happened was. I don't know what stocks will do in 2024 but I do know what I will base "my" rebalancing on next year. If markets have collapsed I will be greedy, if there is a stock market bubble I will be fearful. How fearful and how greedy is determined by the program updated today. 

The Leuthold Group expected S&P 500 return over the next decade in September 2024 3%