Some guestimates to illustrate what endemic COVID-19 might mean (warning: includes a lot of assumptions and simplifications - not a thread for the COVID-19 pedant).— Prof Francois Balloux (@BallouxFrancois) October 20, 2021
|Conventional Coronavirus in Sweden over the years|
|Add Source: https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20224 |
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis: "We will NEVER do any of these lockdowns again." pic.twitter.com/YxJh2nxiV3— The Hill (@thehill) August 31, 2020
A brief resurgence of the flu epidemic in weeks 10 and 11 2020 overlapped with the first 2 weeks of the COVID-19 epidemic. The mortality rate in weeks 10 to 19 of the COVID-19 epidemic was 9,768, of which 213 were in the first 2 weeks.
Anders Tegnell Sweden "What is the world basing their decisions on?" https://youtu.be/pzzVxw5FyYs?t=279 "there is the report (model) from Imperial ...that isn't even peer-reviewed."
Last update: Thursday May 7th. Today is #rokjesdag The first wave is now recent history. It was fascinating, but the daily dose of death is depressing. Makes me think of a story I heard that a woman writing about genocide (in China?) killed herself.
Conclusion May 7th 2020: My prediction was just a bit too low, but much more accurate than most, certainly compared to a certain college. The predictability of some things never ceases to amaze me. The laws of large numbers, etc. My respect for both Donald Trump and Elon Musk has grown and it was wonderful to compare notes with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Levitt via Twitter. The memeshere like any technology is a double-edged sword.
Holland is on a "routekaart" based on the European Union "roadmap" which is not connected to reality and is stuck in a bureaucratic quagmire ;) https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/health/coronavirus-response/european-roadmap-lifting-coronavirus-containment-measures_en A pain, but not the end of the world.
|FORECAST March 19th, 2020|
because the 6 000 is spread over 4 weeks the peak shouldn't be much higher than in the influenza season of 2017-208 below: Maybe 3000 (normal line) +