Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Curve forecast for United States of America based on 1% decline in growth rate per day






Elon Musk tweet "Based on current trends probably close to zero cases in the United States by the end of April too" and https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-nobel-laureate-Coronavirus-spread-is-slowing-621145

"Levitt likened the trend to diminishing interest rates: if a person receives a 30% interest rate on their savings on Day 1, a 29% rate on Day 2, and so on, “you understand that eventually, you will not earn very much.” "

Note: It is easier to predict trends in a subnational cluster than across a large country like the USA. 


Normally around
7500
people die every day in the US.
COVID 19 curve forecast (deaths)
DateDeaths per day forecastExtra deaths per dayTotalGrowth
3/19/202075525217542%Measured
3/20/202075555523031%Measured
3/21/202075686829830%Measured
3/22/2020761011040837%Measured
3/23/2020761111151927%Measured
3/24/2020766216268131%Measured
3/25/2020772522590633%Measured
3/26/20207753253115928%Measured
3/27/20207933433159237%Measured
3/28/20207947447203928%Measured
3/29/20207913413245220%Measured
3/30/20208016516296821%Measured
3/31/20208125625359327%Measured
4/1/20208470970456326%Measured
4/2/202086861186574925%Measured
4/3/202089371437718624%Measured
4/4/202092251725891123%Measured
4/5/2020954920491096022%Measured
4/6/2020991124111337121%Estimated
4/7/20201030828081617920%Estimated
4/8/20201073632361941519%Estimated
4/9/20201118936892310418%Estimated
4/10/20201165941592726317%Estimated
4/11/20201213546353189816%Estimated
4/12/20201260451043700115%Estimated
4/13/20201305055504255214%Estimated
4/14/20201345759574850913%Estimated
4/15/20201380663065481512%Estimated
4/16/20201407865786139311%Estimated
4/17/20201425367536814610%Estimated
4/18/2020143156815749619%Estimated
4/19/2020142466746817078%Estimated
4/20/2020140376537882447%Estimated
4/21/2020136776177944216%Estimated
4/22/20201316556651000865%Estimated
4/23/20201250450041050904%Estimated
4/24/20201170442041092943%Estimated
4/25/20201077932791125722%Estimated
4/26/2020975122511148241%Estimated
4/27/2020864811481159720%Estimated
4/28/202075000115972Estimated

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