Ansgar John / Sinaas

DPA Groep N.V. 2022
Esperite: 2018 Stem Cell Bank losing money, selling shares. Price recently fell from 3 to 0,25
oktober 2019 falliet, koers: 0,046 geen handel.

FNG 2019 Failliet 2022 https://fngnv.com/17-02-2022-fng-nv-vraagt-faillissement-aan/
Gemalto Thales offer 2018

GeoJunxion formerly AND 2023 EUR 1,1 distribution

GrandVision 2019 EUR 28 offer DELISTED on 10/01/2022
Groothandelsgebouwen N.V. bought for EUR 56,92

Hunter Douglas 2021 bought for EUR 175

Intertrust 2021 taken private at EUR 20,-

ICT Group NV 2021 EUR 14,50 private

Kardan 2019 June 2020: https://www.iex.nl/Nieuws/ANP-240620-111/Kardan-geeft-beursnotering-in-Amsterdam-op.aspx

KAS BANK 2019

Kiadis Pharma taken private in 2020

Klepierre cheap at €20? 2019 French

K. VolkerWessels 2019 taken private (again) in 2020

K. Wessanen 2019 buy out

Lucas Bols 2022 2023 Nolet buyout EUR 18 at Graham Value

Neways bought by Infestos

NIBC bought by Blackstone in 2020

Oranjewoud 2018 EUR 6 2022 https://www.tubantia.nl/enschede/sanderink-is-gesteggel-met-toezichthouder-afm-beu-en-haalt-oranjewoud-van-de-beurs~a1cadfeb/

Ordina 2022 bought at 42% premium

RoodMicrotec 2021

SnowWorld 2023 private at EUR 10,50
Yatra Capital 2020

Other countries:

Alibaba 2023
Starbucks

Thoughts on share prices: Peter Lynch and Nick Kraakman https://www.valuespreadsheet.com/blog/dangerous-sayings-about-stock-prices

Friday, December 20, 2024

Heineken Holding share price and Benjamin Graham Defensive value

Heineken is a company that is a money-making machine. A strong profitable brand with great distribution. The company booked a loss in the first half of 2024, but did it lose money?

There are two shares: Heineken ticker HEIA.AS €68.42 and Heinken Holding ticker HEIO.AS €57.40

The amount of dividend per share seems to be the same for both, so it would be logical to buy the cheaper holding shares?

(beia) Profit is Before Exceptional Items and Amortisation of acquisition-related intangible assets.

Net profit decreased to a loss of €95 million in the first half of 2024 driven by the impairment of the investment in CR Beer explained below.

Net profit (beia) increased by 4.4% organically, lower than operating profit (beia) due to higher net financing costs, mainly in Nigeria, and tax expenses, mainly related to Brazil.

As required by IFRS standards (IAS 28 and IAS 36), HEINEKEN has recorded a non-cash impairment related to its investment in CR Beer of €874 million. At the time of acquisition, the CR Beer share price was HKD 35 and after a rally lasting until mid-2023, it declined to HKD 26.25 as of 30 June 2024, possibly reflecting concerns on the macroeconomic environment in China and its impact on consumer demand. The share price trajectory has deviated from the strong operational results of CR Beer. In the period 2019 to 2023, CR Beer's turnover grew by 17% and net profit by 293% as reported under the Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards per calendar year. The strong operational performance was supported by the growth of the premium portfolio, led by Heineken®, up in volume 4x during that four-year period. The contribution of royalties from CR Beer and CR Beer's share of profits to HEINEKEN for the first six months of 2024 continued to increase, reaching more than 7% of the diluted EPS (beia).

Coronapanic lockdowns (2020) were not good for Heineken's business. Note that Benjamin Graham value places an emphasis on book value which is less important for Heineken than earnings and beer flow.

Heineken Holding Benjamin Graham Defensive Analysis based on 2023 results:

SECTOR: [PASS] HEINEKEN is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. HEINEKEN's sales have increased to €31 000 million, and based on 2023 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. HEINEKEN's current ratio €11 400m/€14 825m of 0.8 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for HEINEKEN is €17 539 million, while the net current assets are €-3 425 million. HEINEKEN fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. HEINEKEN's EPS growth over that period of 50% passes the EPS growth test.

Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. HEINEKEN's E/P of 7% (using last year's earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. HEINEKEN has a Graham number of √(15 x €4.2 EPS x 1,5 x €35 Book Value) = €56 and just fails this test.

Dividend: 1,73 EUR / 57,50 EUR = 3%

Conclusion November 2023: Heineken seems like a wonderful company, for a fair price of EUR 87. December 2024 at EUR 57,50 for Heineken Holding seems like a great price;.Although reported Earnings per share have stagnated.

Monday, December 16, 2024

"Sir John Templeton" asset allocation program for 2025

Currently on December 13th, 2024 the MSCI World index https://www.msci.com/world Level link of stocks had increased to 3817 a price 60% higher than two years ago at 2637 in October 2022

Last year on December 14th 2023 the MSCII World Index PRICE was 3102. An increase of 3102/2637 = 18%.

In 2024 the increase was 3817/3102 = 23% which was more than the underlying Value increase which is reflected in the long-term average Price increase of around 8% since 1987.

Based on the table I shared last year you would now be in the 40% zone (3817 is between 3692 and 4058) you might consider (depending on your alternatives and plans) lowering your equity exposure (what you have in stocks like ValueMachinesFund) to 40%.

The program for 2025 includes an increase in the normal zone compared to 2024 of 10% (instead of 7%) because of 3% inflation and an expected increase in the value of companies.

Friday, December 13, 2024

TKH Group Twentse Kabelfabriek Holding $TWEKA stock Price compared to Benjamin Graham Value

NLDR in the context of TKH Group stands for "Networked Learning and Development Resources." This term is often associated with the company's focus on integrating innovative technologies and solutions to enhance operational efficiency and support customer needs in various sectors, including telecommunications, construction, and industrial solutions.

TKH Group is recognized for its commitment to innovation, particularly in areas such as smart vision systems, smart manufacturing, and smart connectivity. The integration of NLDR reflects the company's strategy to leverage advanced technologies and collaborative learning approaches to drive growth and sustainability within its operations and offerings.

Benjamin Graham Defensive Analysis:

SECTOR: [FAIL] TKH formerly Twentse Kabelfabriek Holding is in technology. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. TKH's sales of € 1 847 million based on 2023 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. TKH's current ratio 1 000m/645m of 1,6 fails this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). The long-term debt for TKH is 723 million, while the net current assets are 365 million. TKH fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. TKH's earnings have increased more than 30% since 2013.

Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature.TKH's E/P of 11,5% (using this year's estimated Earnings) is high enough for this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. TKH has a Graham number of √ (15 x 3,7 EPS x 1,5 x 20 Book Value) = € 41

Dividend: TKH 1.70 / 31,2 =5,4%

Conclusion January 2024: @ EUR 37 price seems to be getting very attractive at Earnings per Share of EUR 4 x 15 multiple the price would be EUR 60,- December 2024 sales and earnings have decreased around 10%, the share price now seems more attractive. Long-term debt is increasing to enable dividends and share buybacks, thus not for the dividend investor.

Friday, November 29, 2024

Akzo Nobel NV stock Price and Benjamin Graham Defensive Value

Based on Chapter 14 of "The Intelligent Investor"

SECTOR: [PASS] AKZO is neither a technology nor a financial Company, so this methodology is applicable.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. AKZO's sales of €10 728 million, based on 2023 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. AKZO's current ratio €6 044m/€5 706m of 1.1 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for AKZO is €4,306 million, while the net current assets are €338 million. AKZO fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for AKZO haven't really increased.

EARNINGS YIELD: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. AKZO's earnings yield of 5% (using the 3 year average Earnings) fails this test.

GRAHAM NUMBER VALUE: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. AKZO has a Graham number of √(15 x €2,7 EPS x 1,5 x €23 Book Value) = €39 and fails this test.

DIVIDEND 1.98 EUR/EUR 55 = 3,6%

Note: Earnings for 2024 and 2025 are forecasted to be $4 and $4,5 At a multiple of 15 and stock price of EUR 60 may be reasonable. Not a stock for the Defensive Investor.

Thursday, November 28, 2024

Air France-KLM a twist on "public equity": It keeps flying because the public through the French and Dutch governments keeps supplying it with equity ;)

On 31 August 2023, existing Air France‑KLM shares were converted into new shares at a parity of 10 to 1. In other words, there was a reverse share split.

If you are a Dutch or French citizen you as a member of the public own Air France-KLM shares through state (government) ownership.

As of the latest available information, the shareholding structure of Air France-KLM includes:

French State: 28.6%

Dutch State: 9.3%

China Eastern Airlines: 9.6%

Delta Air Lines: 5.8%

Employees: 2.5%

Treasury stock: 0.2%

Free float: 44.0%

Cash flows in when the company sells shares to keep the planes flying. That is the opposite of share buybacks, thus the negative number here:

SECTOR: [PASS] AF is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. AF's sales of €34 000 million, based on 2023 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. AF's current ratio of €10 000m/€16 000m of 0.6 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for AF is €18 000 million, while the net current assets are €-5 741 million. AF fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for AF were negative in many of the past years and therefore the company fails this criterion.

E/P RATIO: [FAIL] [PASS] The Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio, based on the greater of the current PE or the PE using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "moderate", which this methodology states is not greater than 15. (E/P > 7%) Stocks with moderate P/Es are more defensive by nature. AF's Earnings Yield is 0% as an average for the past three years. Earnings per share of EUR 0,4 last year and the current stock price EUR 7,3 result in an Earnings Yield of 5,6%.

GRAHAM NUMBER VALUE: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price and is at 0 because the book value is negative whilst the price is 7,3 Euros. (I don't understand the Minority Interest of EUR 2 614 million.

NO DIVIDEND

Conclusion: The stock price is low compared to last year's earnings, but the question for the long term is whether any cash can or will be returned to shareholders...The last dividend payment was in 2008.

Tuesday, November 26, 2024

AJAX stock and Graham Value (with a bit of optimism)

Here a simple Graham analysis: My assumption is that Ajax is doing relatively well on the field and should thus be profitable again. Earnings per Share €1?

SECTOR: [PASS] AJAX is neither a technology nor a financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.

SALES:[FAIL] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. AJAX's sales of €152 million, based on 2023 sales, fails this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. AJAX's current ratio €184m/€164m of 1.1 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for AJAX is €190 million, while the net current assets are €20 million. AJAX fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. AJAX made a small loss in 2015, 2021 and 2023 thus fails the test.

Earnings Yield: [PASS] [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. AJAX's E/P of 0% (using last year's Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS] [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. AJAX has a Graham number of √(15 x €0,9 EPS x 1,5 x €12,1 Book Value) = €15

Dividend 2022 0 cents = 0,0%

Conclusion: not for the Graham Defensive investor, more of a gamble...

Thursday, November 07, 2024

Adyen stock price and Graham value

Log scale

SECTOR: FAIL Adyen is in the Financial sector?, which is one sector that this methodology avoids. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published even decades ago.

SALES: PASS The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than 260 million Euros. Adyen's revenue 2 billion current year, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO: PASS FAIL The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Adyen Current Assets EUR 9 551 / EUR 6 319 Current Liabilities = 1,5 is good but less than 2.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: PASS Long-term debt must not exceed net current assets. Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. Adyen has Current Assets of EUR 3 232 and Long-Term Debt is EUR 180 It easily passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for Adyen have increased 70-fold over the past 10 years.

EARNINGS YIELD: FAIL The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Adyen's E/P of 2% based on this year's earnings fails this test.

Graham Number value: FAIL The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Adyen has a Graham number of √(15 x €24 EPS x 1,5 x €115 Book Value) = €250 The stock price is EUR 1 300,-

DIVIDEND: Adyen does not pay a dividend.

Note from 2023 "The company is growing in the US and has room for growth in Japan etc. An interesting development in the USA is FedNow lowering payment costs and making payments instant. I don't know what that means for Adyen."

Sanity Check:

EUR 1 300 Stock Price / 15 (Price / Earnings Ratio) = EUR 86 EPS "needed" 3x today's earnings

Conclusion: Good balance sheet and growth. Not for the Graham Defensive investor at this price.