Monday, April 13, 2099

Valuation of all stocks listed in Holland AEX All Share AAX: Benjamin Graham Defensive Investor method

Warren Buffett: "Well, start with the A’s." https://live.euronext.com/en/product/indices/NL0000249100-XAMS#index-composition

Click on the companies below for Graham Evaluation:

Aalberts Industries 2023
ABN AMRO 2023
Ahold Delhaize 2023 
Accsys Technologies 2024
Adux: French holding company, no English or Dutch info? https://www.adux.com/en/investors/
Allfunds Group PLC
Alumexx 2022 (voorheen Phelix, Inverko, Newconomy)
Bever Holding 2022 
Boussard & Gavaudan Holding Ltd. An expensive hedge fund.
CVC Capital Partners PLC
DGB Group 2022 
DSM-Firmenich 2022
Global InterConnection Group Ltd
New Amsterdam Invest NV
Nepi Rockcastle NV

Accell Group 2020  taken private at EUR 58 in 2022, great price for shareholders. 
Altice 2020 end of December 2020
Apollo Alternative Assets 2019  delisted on December 28, 2020 and liquidated.
Batenburg Techniek: Taken off the stock exchange for 46 Euros by van Puijenbroek family. Good price for investors:  http://sinaas.blogspot.com/2018/08/batenburg-techniek-graham-valuation.html
BinckBank 2019 Saxobank
Beter Bed Holding 2021 bought for EUR 5,74 per share
Boskalis Westminster Koninklijke 2021 bought in 2022 by HAL Trust for EUR 33 per share
Brill, Koninklijke 2022 private after more than 100 years 2023.
Curetis 2019 traded May 2020 for EUR 0,29
DPA Groep N.V. 2022
Esperite: 2018 Stem Cell Bank losing money, selling shares. Price recently fell from 3 to 0,25
oktober 2019 falliet, koers: 0,046 geen handel.
GeoJunxion formerly AND 2023 EUR 1,1 distribution
Hunter Douglas 2021 bought for EUR 175
K. VolkerWessels 2019 taken private (again) in 2020 
Lucas Bols 2022 2023 Nolet buyout EUR 18 at Graham Value
SnowWorld 2023 private at EUR 10,50
Yatra Capital 2020

Other countries:

Thoughts on share prices: Peter Lynch and Nick Kraakman https://www.valuespreadsheet.com/blog/dangerous-sayings-about-stock-prices

Tuesday, January 07, 2025

Euro inflation per country and dollar inflation for the whole USA not per state.

Inflation is measured differently in the Euro area and the United States due to their distinct economic structures and monetary policy frameworks.

## Euro Area Inflation Measurement

In the Euro area, inflation is measured for each individual country as well as for the entire Eurozone using the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)[1]. This approach is necessary because:

1. **Economic Diversity**: The Euro area consists of multiple sovereign nations with varying economic conditions, labor markets, and fiscal policies.

2. **Harmonization**: While the HICP methodology is standardized across countries, allowing for comparability, each nation maintains its own basket of goods and services (up to 295 categories) that reflects its specific consumption patterns[7].

3. **Monetary Policy Implementation**: The European Central Bank (ECB) needs to consider inflation rates in individual countries to assess the overall economic health of the Eurozone and implement appropriate monetary policies.

## United States Inflation Measurement

In contrast, the United States measures inflation primarily at the national level using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U)[5]. This approach is suitable for the U.S. because:

1. **Economic Integration**: The U.S. has a more integrated economy with a single federal government, unified labor market, and common fiscal policy.

2. **Uniform Methodology**: The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses a consistent methodology to collect price data across the country, with more frequent data collection in major cities[2].

3. **National Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve sets monetary policy for the entire nation, focusing on aggregate inflation rather than regional differences.

## Key Differences

1. **Index Composition**: The U.S. CPI includes owner-equivalent rent, which accounts for a significant portion (about 40%) of the underlying price index[3]. In contrast, the Euro area HICP does not fully reflect the cost of owner-occupied housing[1].

2. **Weighting**: The weight of different components varies between the two regions. For example, the total weight of rents in the price index is 38% in the U.S., compared to only 6% in the Euro area[6].

3. **Policy Implications**: The ECB must balance the needs of different countries with varying inflation rates, while the Federal Reserve can focus on a single national inflation figure.

These differences in measurement reflect the unique economic structures and policy needs of each region, allowing for more appropriate monetary policy decisions in their respective contexts.

Citations:
[1] https://www.bde.es/wbe/en/areas-actuacion/politica-monetaria/preguntas-frecuentes/politica-monetaria-y-estabilidad-precios/como-se-mide-la-inflacion.html
[2] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-does-the-government-measure-inflation/
[3] https://acpr.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/billet_5_en_final_1.pdf
[4] https://www.banque-france.fr/en/publications-and-statistics/publications/possible-new-indicator-measure-core-inflation-euro-area
[5] https://usafacts.org/articles/what-is-inflation-and-how-is-it-measured/
[6] https://www.polytechnique-insights.com/en/columns/economy/why-inflation-in-the-us-and-the-eurozone-are-not-the-same/
[7] https://www.euro-area-statistics.org/digital-publication/statistics-insights-inflation/bloc-2a.html
[8] https://www.clevelandfed.org/center-for-inflation-research/inflation-101/what-is-inflation-technical
[9] https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/economic-letters/how-different-euro-area-and-us-inflation.pdf?sfvrsn=8e4e991d_7
[10] https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2023/755706/IPOL_IDA(2023)755706_EN.pdf

Saturday, January 04, 2025

DEI MEi

"Jim Crow and DEI

___________________________

Some of you know that I’m a white guy married to a black woman for over 30 years.

My wife’s family on both sides traces its heritage back to slave days, and all of her family grew up in the Deep South.  Through the years, I have been privileged to hear stories from her parents, grandparents, aunts and uncles about what it was like to be black in America under Jim Crow.  I don’t think one can fully appreciate the horrors and evils of that system unless you hear it explained stoically and matter-of-factly by one of its victims.  The stories were appalling.  Through all of those stories though, the common theme that always struck me was the indignity of it all.  As a black American in those days, you had to “know your place.”  If you suffered discrimination silently, nothing worse could happen to you.  But if you spoke up—if you were “uppity”—the consequences could be dire economically, socially and even fatally via lynchings.  So if you loved your family, you kept your mouth shut, willingly remained subservient in the face of active discrimination, and suffered the INDIGNITY of it all. 

That indignity of silent suffering was corrosive to the soul, which I think is one of the most pernicious and unspoken psychological effects on each victim who lived through that era.

"Corrosive to the soul.”  Hold that thought.

Fast forward to last week, where I was forced to endure my firm’s annual DEI training.  I had to sit there silently while I was informed that I had earned none of the things that I earned through my own blood, sweat and tears; that I was inherently and unchangeably inferior because of the color of my skin and my genitalia; that all that I owned and am were only there due to “privilege” and the “patriarchy”; and that if I spoke out against any of this, it only proved my racism and my ignorance as to my own privilege. 

That’s when it occurred to me.  I was supposed to just sit there silently and “know my place.”  This was an INDIGNITY.  I knew it, they knew it, and if I were to speak up—if I were to be “uppity”—a real potential existed that significant economic and social harm would come crashing down on me.  So because I love my family, I kept my mouth shut.  I sat silently and steamed.  My soul corroded a little bit that day.

Now I know this analogy is far from perfect.  The forms of discrimination black Americans faced under Jim Crow were far, far worse than what I might ever face in terms of lost income or social/professional opportunities as a result of DEI, and the penalties I might face for speaking out publicly against DEI pale in comparison to the extreme risks of false imprisonment or lynching death that tangibly existed under Jim Crow.

Still, I sensed a common psychology of both systems.

I was the victim of active discrimination based on my race and gender.  I had to suffer this indignity in silence.  This was corrosive to my soul.  I was living a familiar refrain.

DEI is Jim Crow in a new, less aggressive, deceptively benign form.  But both Jim Crow and DEI have corroded the souls of their victims, and they both have served to corrode the collective soul of the United States of America.

If we are ever to live up to our founding promises, DEI must be crushed and eliminated as the soul-corroding cancer that it is, just as we crushed and eliminated Jim Crow.


Friday, December 27, 2024

C&A Mission Statement

"OUR MISSION, ON BEHALF OF OUR CUSTOMERS, IS TO ENSURE A LIFETIME OF QUALITY FASHIONS AT GREATEST VALUE SOLD THROUGH ATTRACTIVE, EASY TO SHOP STORES."



We aim to be the preferred retail fashion brand in Europe because we have: 

- A wide range of exclusive and appealing functional and fashion collections offering the best value available. 

- Atractive, easy to reach, easy to shop stores with customers served by highly professional and motivated C&A teams. 

-Innovation and dynamic management based on our customers' ever-changing requirements. 

-High standards of ethics and social responsibility

This mission statement comprehensively sets out a mission for C&A that provides a reference point for all company activities and establishes the kind of company C&A wishes to be. 
The mission statement covers all factors through succint references to the different aspects that make up the total company. 

From the mission statement, it is possible to directly establish the basic mission for any part of the Company. 

Everybody knows what C&A stands for

OUR MISSION, ON BEHALF OF OUR CUSTOMERS, IS TO ENSURE A LIFETIME OF QUALITY FASHIONS AT GREATEST VALUE...

This first paragraph is the summary which sums up everything that is vital. Everything in the mission statement that follows amplifies the first paragraph. 

The summary of the mission statement starts by establishing a total customer focus, communicating that the customer is the reason the company operates and exists. 

Everything done by C&A should be 'on behalf of the customer'. 

'Lifetime' establishes the relationship that C&A aims to have with their customers. This is a long term commitment and implicit is the expectation that C&A will always be able to provide what the customer wants - at different life stages and for different wearing occasions. 

A lifetime relationship requires improvement, innovation and evolution to ensure that the offering is always interesting and competitive moves are encountered effectively. 

Long term relationships continue to be the aim of C&A but they can no longer be taken for granted. Success will be necessary for long term relationships to be developed and continued. 

'Quality fashions at greatest value' is the basis of the C&A offering to the market place. It defines the business but does not dictate whether there be just C&A private brands or some third party brand fashions. Neither does it dictate fashionability which will need to be adjusted according to consumer demand or the mix of price levels which can be adjusted according to economic conditions. 

...SOLD THROUGH ATTRACTIVE, EASY TO SHOP STORES*." 

The second half of the mission statement summary establishes that , above all, C&A is a retailer and the focus always needs to be on the stores where the customer and company interact. 

Customers must enjoy their shopping experience in C&A stores which must appeal to our target customers by offering a modern environment, visually and functionally establishing the C&A positioning. 

With a basically self serve format, customers will be provided with displays that make selection by garment, style, size colour or any other criteria easy to find. 

Our aim is that the C&A stores will be recognized as the best and leaders in their category, through ongoing dialogue with customers, monitoring of developments world wide and active consideration of new ideas. (*written in 1997 before widespread e-commerce)

While C&A will be first and foremost a fashion store, we may provide our customers with more value through new articles and services. 

This part of the mission statement does not specifically address corporate citizenship and social responsibility. This is implicit in the lifetime relationship which requires C&A to conduct business with responsibility. 

This summary of the mission statement is meaningful and easy to remember. The expansion of the mission statement which follows, builds on the summary to broaden appreciation of detailed meaning and actions that will be required. 

With a good nose for trends and fashions

...We aim to be the preferred ...

C&A retails to a wide range of middle market fashion shoppers, who are made up of defined customer target groups. Our aim is to be the preferred choice of each identified group. 

Our presence in the repertoire of all these customer groups is to cumulatively result in C&A being, overall, the fashion choice of more people than any other single retailer.

... retail fashion brand ...  

This defines the core business in which C&A operates. Above all, retail fashion will form the basis of the C&A reputation. 

The definition does not exclude activity in business other than fashion, but calls for compatibility with the basic brand reputation. We may provide our customers with more value through new articles and services. 

Measurement criteria
-Awareness (C&A name and logo)
-% of target customers that include C&A in their shopping repertoire when shopping for clothing 
-Understanding of C&A brand positioning:
    -internal (co-workers) 
    -external (actual customers and potential customers)

Performance on 'understanding' will follow from all measurements of further elements of the full mission statement. 

... in Europe ... 

C&A is a European company.

Fashion is an international business and a positive association will be developed carefully, from C&A's European scale and presence, acknowledging requirements of national and local markets. 

... because we have ... 

This phrase introduces the required objectives for C&A in the mission statement. However, this statement is not to be considered a restriction and C&A can be further enhanced through new and appropriate business developments. 

... a wide range of exclusive and appealing functional and fashion collections ...

   
A wide range is absolutely fundamental to C&A. The breadth of selection provides a competitive advantage over any other fashion retailer. The range carried by C&A must not only provide for all groups of clothes buying shoppers who make up the C&A customer base, but also offer a range of fashions for each ones of those groups with the depth to serve those customers. 

Fashion levels will range from contemporary to classic to ensure breadth of appeal. Fashion preferences of local markets will be taken into account. 

C&A is based on exclusive fashion collections in that they are produced and bought specially for C&A and given private brand names.  The exclusivity should not be confused with high fashion where exclusivity is based on extremes of style and high cost. 

Our fashion collections must appeal to customers in terms of fashionability that appeals to them - styles, colours, materials, etc. that suit their personal wants. Fashions that appeal will sell and keep customers coming back. It is implicit that we must know what appeals to our customers. 

A distinction is made between functional and fashion collections in order to emphasise the spread of customer requirements that must be satisfied by C&A. 'Functional' meanings clothing for specific purposes and specific wearing occasions such as office, factory, school, etc. 

Because the reputation of C&A is 'built on' exclusive fashion collections, it follows that the greater part of the range should be exclusive. However, it does not restrict C&A to private brands and third party brands can be added when appropriate to maintenance of a credible fashion offering in all sectors. 

Measurement criteria
-Tracking/monitoring etc. of performance with regard to key brand performance criteria 
-Measurement of width relative to competition
-Measurement of depth relative to competition
-Measurement of conversion rate in order to assess the competence 
-Customer feedback on merchandise experience - look, quality, fit wearing, etc. 

And dare to change

... offering the best value available ...

Best value is the foundation of C&A's business. Best value built C&A and must be the area where C&A is not beaten or undersold by any competitor. 

Value does not mean low price but it is the result of the relationship between quality and price. Therefore we must ensure that at all levels of quality sold by C&A, the price is better than that being charged by any competitor for a similar quality. 

We will set and rigorously maintain quality standards and the quality specifications of our brands. C&A will demonstrate confidence and concern for the customer through a guarantee of quality. 

Measurement criteria
-Image for customer perceptions re value
-Customer quality perception measurement (image for quality, product and service)
-Monitoring on the realisation of the underselling objective
-Monitoring on the realisation of the value equation per brand
Internal auditing against minimum quality standards and brand specifications
-Image for ease of money back 

... attractive easy to reach, easy to shop stores ... 

C&A stores will be located in main shopping areas close to the main stores of the area. Access to primary local transport or from parking should be close by. 

The stores will appeal to our target customers by offering a modern environment, visually and functionally consistent with C&A positioning. The collections need to be attractively presented to the appropriate group of customers while maintaining the overall appeal of the store. 

With a basically self serve format, it is essential that customers can easily find the relevant departments and that displays make easy selection by, for example, brand, quality, color, size, style, co-ordination, price or other customer criteria. Customer facilities to help selection - fitting rooms, measurement guides, mirrors, etc., will be provided to high standards. The fitting rooms philosophy of "Fashion Service Centers" will be developed to the benefit of customers. 

Where possible, facilities to help customers enjoy the C&A shopping experience will be provided. Examples are seats, refreshment facilities, television monitors, etc. 

Within the overall store design approaches, presentation standards for individual brands will be set and managed to define merchandising standards. 

The aim will be to ensure that C&A stores are recognized as the best and leading in their category, through ongoing dialogue with customers, monitoring of developments world wide and active consideration of new ideas. 

Measurement criteria
-Development of a procedure to agree the European store concept and the necessary adaptions
-Development of a procedure for constantly improving the store concept
-Development of overall presentation and packaging standards
-Monitoring/auditing the implementation of the above
-Monitoring/auditing the implementation of the presentation/packaging of the brand definitions
-Measurement of the customer perceptions store image measures (presentation, easy to find, clean and tidy, rails, etc.)
-Customer feedback on store experience - service, facilities, etc. 

... served by highly professional and motivated C&A teams ... 

The aim of C&A will be to provide an quality of product and level of service that can only be realized through highly motivated C&A teams who have the skills, and the professionalism to use them to the highest standards consistently. Professionalism is the standard of the best in their field. 

The expression 'C&A teams' in the mission statement includes everybody who works in the company. Achievement of the mission must be a complete team effort where every member demonstrates total commitment to working successfully with each other. Teams are made up of individuals, all of whomhave their personal part to play.
Each single member of C&A must feel personally responsible for the total satisfaction of customers. Store and non store C&A people are all included in this definition. 

We value long term relationships on the basis that that commitment and loyalty will work both ways. C&A people will be treated responsibly, with respect, and with application of the best personnel management practices. Our aim is that the knowledge and experience that our staff develop shall be enthusiastically applied by them, to our customers. We seek the very best from our people. 
While we recognize the benefits from long relationships with C&A people, these must be dependant on their ability to maintain performance to the high standards expected by the Company and develop their skills over the years to meet the changing needs of fashion retailing. 

C&A people must feel personally responsible for increasing sales and be aware of the importance of service in increasing customers propensity to buy. They need to be constantly aware of their role in providing an enjoyable fashion shopping experience for customers. 

We must be fast to correct reasons for dissatisfaction and quick to apologize and put the problem right. We will work to provide ongoing reasons for the customer to keep coming back to shopping at C&A. 

Members of C&A must be made to feel part of the team through sharing of the vision of C&A and dissemination of the knowledge how the vision is to be achieved. They need to feel that their contribution to Company development is welcomed and valued. 

C&A people must have a clear understanding of the Company's goals and their individual goals. Their training must be considered fundamental to ensure that they reach their maximum potential and have the knowledge and skills to carry out their work flawlessly. 

Store staffing levels will need to ensure customers can easily obtain help in selection, fitting, and solving other questions. Where possible, customer help is to be proactively offered, encouraging a 'one to one' customer relationship. 

Feedback and evaluation needs to be provided regularly, honestly and performance compared to the highest standards. 

Measurement criteria 
-Perceptions on customer service attributes will be measured
    -no queing
    -enough friendly and helpful staff
    -staff give good advice 
-Specific performance criteria will be set and audited:
    -secret shopper assessments 
    -visitor/buyer performance
    -recognisability of sales associates 
    -service upgrades 
    Develop, execute and monitor the effectiveness of the training/retraining programme
-Personnel evaluations
-Develop policy frameworks and communication approaches, including frequency and content
-Develop monitoring tools
-Monitor performance against agreed objectives:
    -understanding/communication/retention
    -motivation and performance 

.. innovation and dynamic management ...

The C&A culture aims to be that of an innovative and dynamic company. 

Dynamism calls for energetic proactivity, not delayed reaction. 

'Management' includes not just those in management positions in the company, but all staff, each of whom manage their own performance. 

It is essential to the future success of C&A that improvement is regarded as a continuing process that is the responsibility of all members to the staff. 

Every aspect of the C&A operation will be regularly and critically examined to ensure that the company behaves, and is seen by others to behave, in an innovative manner in order to stay ahead of competitors. A culture of improvement needs to be embraced by staff and they should be motivated to continually put forward ideas for improvement, knowing that good ideas will help careers and confident that poor ideas will not harm careers. Input will also be sought from external sources. 

The aim will be to be seen as the company to introduce good ideas before competitors so the benefits accrue to C&A only. 

Development of a system of internal and external communications will be required. Active PR on customer benefits and customer directed activities will be very important. 

Fashion retailing is a dynamic category and C&A must behave dynamically to build on our long heritage and move ahead in the market. 

Measurement criteria 
-General customer satisfaction
-Attitudes of prospective customers
-Analysis of loyalty/repeat business 
-Images on full range of customer benefit measurement from mission statement
-Ongoing customer dialogue through research and store level dialogues with representation from all customer target groups
-Third party performance evaluations

... high standards or ethics and social responsibility ...

We will act as a responsible corporate citizen in every country in which we operate and will respect the requirements of that society in terms of legal, social economic and cultural requirements. 

We seek to develop relationships with third party organisations who share C&A's ethical outlook and are able to provide us with continuing high standards of service and supply. We particularly will insist on observations of the principles of fair and honest dealing and respect for human rights. 

We will actively demonstrate our involvement and our commitment to improving the well being of local communities through our corporate giving programmes and participation in, or development of, our own local initiatives.

We recognize and fully accept our responsibilities for safeguarding the environment in which we, our families and our customers live and work. 

Our goal is to become recognized by our customers, and by the wider community as one of the top five European retailers for environmental standards in fashion retailing. 

Measurement criteria 
-Assessment of own performance against codes of conduct
-Evaluation of planned activities 
-Specific image aspects - environmental involvement/etc. 
-Third party evaluations

Okay ... cut .... perfect .....that's it ....Thank you everybody! 

"Now once again with conviction! "

"OUR MISSION, ON BEHALF OF OUR CUSTOMERS, IS TO ENSURE A LIFETIME OF QUALITY FASHIONS AT GREATEST VALUE SOLD THROUGH ATTRACTIVE, EASY TO SHOP STORES."

We aim to be the preferred retail fashion brand in Europe because we have: 

- A wide range of exclusive and appealing functional and fashion collections offering the best value available. 

- Atractive, easy to reach, easy to shop stores with customers served by highly professional and motivated C&A teams. 

-Innovation and dynamic management based on our customers' ever-changing requirements. 

-High standards of ethics and social responsibility

----
Typos are the fault of Ansgar John Brenninkmeijer call me +31629547689 or e-mail ajb@ValueMachinesFund.nl
    

Friday, December 20, 2024

Heineken Holding share price and Benjamin Graham Defensive value



Heineken is a company that is a money-making machine. A strong profitable brand with great distribution. The company booked a loss in the first half of 2024, but did it lose money? 

There are two shares: Heineken ticker HEIA.AS €68.42 and Heinken Holding ticker HEIO.AS €57.40
The amount of dividend per share seems to be the same for both, so it would be logical to buy the cheaper holding shares? 


(beia) Profit is Before Exceptional Items and Amortisation of acquisition-related intangible assets.

Net profit decreased to a loss of €95 million in the first half of 2024 driven by the impairment of the investment in CR Beer explained below. 

Net profit (beia) increased by 4.4% organically, lower than operating profit (beia) due to higher net financing costs, mainly in Nigeria, and tax expenses, mainly related to Brazil. 

As required by IFRS standards (IAS 28 and IAS 36), HEINEKEN has recorded a non-cash impairment related to its investment in CR Beer of €874 million. At the time of acquisition, the CR Beer share price was HKD 35 and after a rally lasting until mid-2023, it declined to HKD 26.25 as of 30 June 2024, possibly reflecting concerns on the macroeconomic environment in China and its impact on consumer demand. The share price trajectory has deviated from the strong operational results of CR Beer. In the period 2019 to 2023, CR Beer's turnover grew by 17% and net profit by 293% as reported under the Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards per calendar year. The strong operational performance was supported by the growth of the premium portfolio, led by Heineken®, up in volume 4x during that four-year period. The contribution of royalties from CR Beer and CR Beer's share of profits to HEINEKEN for the first six months of 2024 continued to increase, reaching more than 7% of the diluted EPS (beia).

Coronapanic lockdowns (2020) were not good for Heineken's business. Note that Benjamin Graham value places an emphasis on book value which is less important for Heineken than earnings and beer flow.

Heineken Holding Benjamin Graham Defensive Analysis based on 2023 results:



SECTOR: [PASS] HEINEKEN is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. HEINEKEN's sales have increased to €31 000 million, and based on 2023 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. HEINEKEN's current ratio €11 400m/€14 825m of 0.8 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for HEINEKEN is €17 539 million, while the net current assets are €-3 425 million. HEINEKEN fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. HEINEKEN's EPS growth over that period of 50% passes the EPS growth test.

Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. HEINEKEN's E/P of 7% (using last year's earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. HEINEKEN has a Graham number of (15 x €4.2 EPS x 1,5 x €35 Book Value) = €56 and just fails this test.

Dividend: 1,73 EUR / 57,50 EUR = 3%  

Conclusion November 2023: Heineken seems like a wonderful company, for a fair price of EUR 87. December 2024 at EUR 57,50 for Heineken Holding seems like a great price;.Although reported Earnings per share have stagnated. 

Monday, December 16, 2024

"Sir John Templeton" asset allocation program for 2025

Currently on December 13th, 2024 the MSCI World index https://www.msci.com/world Level link of stocks had increased to 3817 a price 60% higher than two years ago  at 2637 in October 2022


Last year on December 14th 2023 the MSCII World Index PRICE was 3102. An increase of 3102/2637 = 18%. 

In 2024 the increase was 3817/3102 = 23%  which was more than the underlying Value increase which is reflected in the long-term average Price increase of around 8% since 1987.

Based on the table I shared last year you would now be in the 40% zone (3817 is between 3692 and 4058) you might consider (depending on your alternatives and plans) lowering your equity exposure (what you have in stocks like ValueMachinesFund) to 40%.


The program for 2025 includes an increase in the normal zone compared to 2024 of 10% (instead of 7%) because of  3% inflation and an expected increase in the value of companies.





Friday, December 13, 2024

TKH Group Twentse Kabelfabriek Holding $TWEKA stock Price compared to Benjamin Graham Value


NLDR in the context of TKH Group stands for "Networked Learning and Development Resources." This term is often associated with the company's focus on integrating innovative technologies and solutions to enhance operational efficiency and support customer needs in various sectors, including telecommunications, construction, and industrial solutions.
TKH Group is recognized for its commitment to innovation, particularly in areas such as smart vision systems, smart manufacturing, and smart connectivity. The integration of NLDR reflects the company's strategy to leverage advanced technologies and collaborative learning approaches to drive growth and sustainability within its operations and offerings. 

Benjamin Graham Defensive Analysis:

SECTOR:
 [FAIL] TKH formerly Twentse Kabelfabriek Holding is in technology. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published. 

SALES: 
[PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. TKH's sales of  € 1 847 million based on 2023 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO:   [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. TKH's current ratio 1 000m/645m of 1,6 fails this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS:  [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). The long-term debt for TKH is 723 million, while the net current assets are 365 million. TKH fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. TKH's earnings have increased more than 30% since 2013.

Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature.TKH's  E/P of 11,5%  (using this year's estimated Earnings) is high enough for this test.

Graham Number value: 
[PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. TKH has a Graham number of √ (15 x  3,7 EPS x 1,5 x  20 Book Value) =   € 41

Dividend: TKH 1.70 / 31,2 =5,4%

Conclusion January 2024: @ EUR 37 price seems to be getting very attractive at Earnings per Share of EUR 4 x 15 multiple the price would be EUR 60,-  December 2024 sales and earnings have decreased around 10%, the share price now seems more attractive. Long-term debt is increasing to enable dividends and share buybacks, thus not for the dividend investor.