Monday, April 13, 2099

Valuation of all stocks listed in Holland AEX All Share AAX: Benjamin Graham Defensive Investor method

Warren Buffett: "Well, start with the A’s." https://live.euronext.com/en/product/indices/NL0000249100-XAMS#index-composition

Click on the companies below for Graham Evaluation:

Aalberts Industries 2023
ABN AMRO 2023
Ahold Delhaize Koninklijke 2022 
Accsys Technologies 2022
Adux: French holding company, no English or Dutch info? https://www.adux.com/en/investors/
Bever Holding 2022 
Boussard & Gavaudan Holding Ltd. An expensive hedge fund.

Marel 2022 ? 
Nedap 2022
MKB Nedsense 2022
Morefield Group 2022
New Sources Energy 2022

Accell Group 2020  taken private at EUR 58 in 2022, great price for shareholders. 
Altice 2020 end of December 2020
Apollo Alternative Assets 2019  delisted on December 28, 2020 and liquidated.
Batenburg Techniek: Taken off the stock exchange for 46 Euros by van Puijenbroek family. Good price for investors:  http://sinaas.blogspot.com/2018/08/batenburg-techniek-graham-valuation.html
BinckBank 2019 Saxobank
Beter Bed Holding 2021 bought for EUR 5,74 per share
Boskalis Westminster Koninklijke 2021 bought in 2022 by HAL Trust for EUR 33 per share
Brill, Koninklijke 2022 private after more than 100 years 2023.
Curetis 2019 traded May 2020 for EUR 0,29
DPA Groep N.V. 2022
Esperite: 2018 Stem Cell Bank losing money, selling shares. Price recently fell from 3 to 0,25
oktober 2019 falliet, koers: 0,046 geen handel.
GeoJunxion formerly AND 2023 EUR 1,1 distribution
Hunter Douglas 2021 bought for EUR 175
K. VolkerWessels 2019 taken private (again) in 2020 
Lucas Bols 2022 2023 Nolet buyout EUR 18 at Graham Value
SnowWorld 2023 private at EUR 10,50
Yatra Capital 2020

Other countries:

Thoughts on share prices: Peter Lynch and Nick Kraakman https://www.valuespreadsheet.com/blog/dangerous-sayings-about-stock-prices

Thursday, March 28, 2024

Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Alfen energy transition company stock Price and Graham defensive Value : energietransitie

Today in the Dutch Financial Daily it was revealed that pension funds want to invest billions in the Dutch energy transition: https://fd.nl/economie/1511961/grootste-pensioenfondsen-willen-miljarden-in-energietransitie-steken as a "result" Alfen's share price has decreased by 1% whilst the AEX increased slightly:) 

Alfen's has a market cap of EUR 1b. The pension fund ABP is talking about investing EUR 10b.

Logarithmic scale is better for decision-making than linear below

Same graph different scale

Alfen was focused on charging electric vehicles and is now also working on energy storage with 
CATL battery company.

This summer in The Netherlands solar will generate 30 GW on sunny days whilst electricity use is 15 GW. Electricity will be free for hundreds of hours and expensive at other times. The demand for storage is also increasing worldwide. See https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/Tesla-Master-Plan-Part-3.pdf for the numbers involved in the worldwide energy transition.

Alfen expects to see revenue increase by roughly a quarter in 2024 and Earnings to increase to EUR 100m? by 2027 (they predict EBITDA, not net earnings). That would be roughly EUR 5 per share. At a multiple of 15 the share price would be EUR 75 an increase of 50% in 4 years. 

Alfen Graham Defensive Analysis

SECTOR: [PASS] Alfen is neither a technology nor financial  Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 
SALES: [PASS]  The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Alfen's sales of €504 million, based on 2023 sales, pass this test.
CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Alfen's current ratio €315m/€191m of 1.6 just fails the test.
LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS:  [PASS] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for Alfen's is €26m, while the net current assets are €124m million. Aalberts passes this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Alfen's EPS growth over the past years of > 1 000% passes the EPS growth test.
EARNINGS YIELD: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Alfen's E/P of 4% (using last years earnings) fails this test.

GRAHAM NUMBER VALUE:  [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Alfen's has a Graham number of √(15 x €1,9 EPS x 1,5 x €8,3 Book Value) = €21

Dividend: There is no dividend payment because all proceeds are reinvested in the company.

Conclusion: February 2023 at 77 Euros: The company operates businesses for which demand can easily double, possibly doubling profits as well within a few years. The stock price seems reasonable at EUR 77, not for the Graham Defensive Investor. 

Conclusion: March 2024 at 49 Euros: The stock is more expensive than the recent dip to EUR 28 but more attractive than 77 last year. The company seems set to keep growing and profiting from the energy transition and demand for storage solutions. 

Thursday, March 14, 2024

ABN Amro stock Price, Graham Value, share buybacks and government selling.


SECTOR: FAIL ABN AMRO is in the Financial sector, which is one sector that this methodology avoids. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published even decades ago. Several of Graham's criteria, like the Current Ratio and Debt to Current Assets, do not apply to financial companies. As a result, the company will not be able to pass this methodology, although we will include the remainder of the analysis for informational purposes.

SALES: PASS The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than 260 million Euros. ABN AMRO's revenue of  8 683 million, based on 2023 figures, passes this test. 

CURRENT RATIO: FAIL The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. ABN AMRO is a financial stock so the current ratio analysis cannot be applied and this criterion cannot be evaluated.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: FAIL Long term debt must not exceed net current assets. Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. ABN AMRO is a financial stock so this variable is not applicable and this criterion cannot be evaluated.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS FAIL Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for ABN AMRO have been increasing. In the past, ABN Amro (and many other banks) failed. In 2020 ABN Amro has booked a loss.

Earnings Yield: PASS The Earnings/Price (E/P) ratio, based on the lesser of the current E/P or the E/P using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,6%. Stocks with high Earnings Yields are more defensive by nature. ABN AMRO's Earnings Yield of 14% (based on an average of 3 years earnings) passes this test.

GRAHAM NUMBER: PASS The geometric average of 1,5 x book value and 15 x EPS is the Square Root of 1,5 x 28 Euros x 15 x 2,4 Euros = 38 Euros.

DIVIDEND: ABN AMRO pays a dividend of 50% of earnings, was  1,29/15 = 8,5%.

EUR 500m buyback. EUR 0.5b buyback / EUR 7.3b = 7% in total 15% return of capital including dividend. 

"NLFI as a majority shareholder is currently executing a trading program with the intention to bring its stake down to approximately 40%. NLFI will participate in the buyback pro-rata on the basis of a 40% interest via off-market transactions, thereby avoiding an increase in its relative stake in the company."

https://www.nlfi.nl/ which is the government, is selling at a low price keeping the share price low??

CONCLUSION 2023: ABN Amro seems to be profiting from increasing interest rates. The stock is not expensive at EUR 16,44. The buyback will increase book value and earnings per share. 

CONCLUSION 2024: ABN Amro seems to be profiting from increasing interest rates. The stock is not expensive at EUR 15. The buyback will increase book value and earnings per share and NLFI sales keep share price low (which is good for long-term holders). 

Thursday, February 29, 2024

CHEATSHEET aide-mémoire pour Jacques

Merci Jacques,


Je suis né en Angleterre et j'ai vécu à Montréal où mon père Ansgar B. est décédé en 1978. J'ai fait ma formation à Hambourg en 1989 et j'ai été licencié ou renvoyé de C&A environ 6 fois. J'ai de la branche Rotterdam de la famille comme Stan et Lucas. Un oncle de la succursale d'Amsterdam a expliqué ainsi notre manière de travailler ensemble : "L'habitant de Rotterdam prépare le hamburger, l'habitant d'Amsterdam y met une sauce." Actuellement, je dirige un fonds d'investissement avec deux amis:

https://www.investmentofficer.lu/en/news/blessed-dutch-fund-beats-virtually-all-indices


"On ne peut pas apporter des pourcentages à la banque."

Aide-mémoire


Imaginez que vous possédez un magasin et vendez deux produits.


Vous vendez la même quantité, le même nombre d'unités des deux.


L’un est un produit durable, les clients vous paient 4 € pour le vendre et vous payez 2 € à l’usine par unité pour le fournir.


L'usine facture 1 € pour l'autre produit. A quel prix de vente serait-il aussi rentable que le produit durable ?

 

 Répondre:


La réponse est simple. Il est basé sur le comptage de l'argent :


Produit durable 4 € Prix de vente - 2 € Prix d'achat = 2 € de marge contributive. (#Deckungsbeitrag db)


Le produit acheté pour 1 € doit être vendu pour 1 € + 2 € de marge de contribution = 3 € pour aboutir au même bénéfice net.


Le calcul : Bénéfice net du magasin = Marge en € par unité x Quantité vendue - Dépenses du magasin en €


-------------------------------------------------- ---


De nombreux magasins utilisent le calcul de pourcentage sous-optimal suivant :


Bénéfice net = Ventes x (% de marge brute - Dépenses %)


Le produit durable a un % de marge de 50 % (2 €/4 €) et l'autre produit serait considéré comme tout aussi rentable s'il était vendu avec la même marge pour 2 € (1 €/2 € = 50 %)


En réalité, ce n’est pas aussi rentable, cela ne génère que la moitié du cash-flow car…..


"Vous ne pouvez pas apporter des pourcentages à la banque."


CLÉ : « Évaluation des coûts basée sur l'opportunité » : lors de l'évaluation des options d'assortiment au lieu de comparer la marge %s aux dépenses %s ou de tenter d'attribuer les dépenses aux SKU, le cadre allemand Deckungsbeitrag considère « Opportunitieitskosten » du Deckungbeitrag relatif.


 Pour le livre blanc, voir : www.profitperx.com

Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Aalberts, Benjamin Graham Defensive Analysis and Mr. Market


Graham asks the reader to imagine that they are one of the two owners of a business, along with a partner called Mr. Market. The partner frequently offers to sell their share of the business or to buy the reader's share. This partner is what today would be called manic-depressive, with their estimate of the business's value going from very pessimistic to wildly optimistic. The reader is always free to decline the partner's offer, since they will soon come back with an entirely different offer

Aalberts Graham Defensive Analysis:
SECTOR: [PASS] Aalberts is neither a technology nor financial company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 
SALES: [PASS]  The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Aalberts' sales of €3 324 million, based on 2023 sales, pass this test.
CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Aalberts' current ratio €1 431m/€895m of 1,6 fails the test.
LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for Aalberts is €600m while the net current assets are €536m million. Aalberts fails this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Aalberts' EPS growth over that period of 270% passes the EPS growth test.
EARNINGS YIELD: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Aalberts's E/P of 7% (using the average of last 3 years) passes this test.

GRAHAM NUMBER VALUE:  [FAIL]  [PASS]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Aalberts has a Graham number of √(15 x €3,2 EPS x 1,5 x €23 Book Value) = €42

Dividend: EUR 1,13/42 = 2.6%

Conclusion January 2023 at 42 Euros: A bit too much debt, price (koers) a bit too high at the moment compared to Graham Value but considering track record a buy at EUR 42.

Conclusion February 2024 at 42 Euros: A bit too much debt, price (koers) equals Graham Value but considering track record a buy at EUR 42.

Note: There was an opportunity to buy at EUR 29,1 in the past year.